PDA

View Full Version : Across the Pond.


Leo Hairy-Camel
19th Jan 2006, 08:47
Amid the race to find fault on this side of the pond, some interesting reading from the Financial Times about life on the other.

American grounds aircraft as losses hit $604m
By Doug Cameron in Chicago
Published: January 18 2006 15:36 | Last updated: January 18 2006 23:41

American Airlines on Wednesday said it had permanently grounded 27 aircraft, highlighting the strategic gulf between the network carriers and the rapid growth of low-fare rivals.
The parking of aircraft by bankrupt carriers last year helped fuel a recovery in revenue across the industry, and prospects for a return to profitability after five years of losses hinge on how much capacity is added in 2006.
American, the largest US airline by revenue, led the industry last year by cutting flights in response to soaring fuel prices, and the decision to ground more aircraft permanently will raise hopes that network carriers will add little or no domestic capacity this year.
Meanwhile, low-fare rivals such as Southwest, JetBlue and AirTran plan to add dozens of new aircraft in 2006.
American booked a $155m charge in the fourth quarter against the 27 MD-80 aircraft, 24 of which were already parked in the desert.
The charge helped widen its net loss from $387m to $604m in the three months to December 31, though the airline said cost cuts and efficiency measures helped to generate its first full-year operating profit since 2000, excluding special charges.
A net loss of $861m in 2005 compared with a deficit of $761m the previous year, with fuel costs adding an extra $1.7bn to expenses in 2005.
The airline said its unit costs fell 2 per cent year-on-year, excluding fuel, and it has already announced plans to cut an additional $500m a year from expenses and boost revenues by an incremental $300m a year through measures such as charging passengers for guaranteed standby seats.
The improving industry revenue environment in 2005 combined with record load factors in all 12 months for American, with revenue per available seat mile – a standard industry measure – climbing 9.3 per cent in the year and 13.8 per cent in the final quarter.
American ended the year with $4.3bn in cash and short-term investments as it enters the traditionally slow first quarter.
Alongside Continental Airlines, it is the only network carrier to have avoided filing for bankruptcy protection during the current industry downturn, helped by new labour contracts agreed in 2004.

And even more interesting...

‘We are all low-cost carriers now’
By Doug Cameron in Chicago
Published: September 22 2005 22:05 | Last updated: September 22 2005 22:05

The Society of Airline Analysts this week welcomed Gary Kelly, chief executive officer of Southwest Airlines, to a breakfast gathering, neglecting to tell their guest whether his entrance fee was waived. “I take it I don’t owe the $75,” joked the head of the most predatory US carrier. “We can’t afford it. We’re an airline.”
Southwest is now the largest domestic US airline, having expanded from its Texas base to both coasts. Its average fare in July was $92 one way – little more than coffee and muffins with the analysts. And therein lies the problem facing the six US network carriers, four of whom are in bankruptcy protection.
Real domestic fares have halved since deregulation in 1978, and costs have failed to match this trend despite close to 300,000 job cuts over the past five years and the gains from innovations such as internet booking.
Delta’s latest transformation plan, outlined on Thursday, a week after the carrier filed for bankruptcy protection, seeks to address the problems at home and tap opportunities abroad. But it is a moving target.
Bankruptcy protection is helping the legacy carriers towards the cost levels set by Southwest and newer entrants such as JetBlue and AirTran. Delta, like its peers, is pushing its wage levels down and shrinking some of its hubs in favour of more point-to-point flying, which improves aircraft utilisation. “We’re all low-cost carriers now,” says Doug Parker, CEO of America West, which plans to complete its merger with US Airways next week to create the fifth-largest US carrier.
Gerald Grinstein, his counterpart at Delta, also aims to “save” his airline and restore profitability in a little over two years by finding its feet in the international market, away from Southwest’s glare. International routes account for 24 per cent of Delta’s capacity, compared with a sector-leading 42 per cent at Continental and 40 per cent at Northwest, which also filed for bankruptcy last week.
Delta is accelerating plans to reconfigure aircraft which, for example, once flew from its Atlanta hub to Florida, to expand its international capacity by a quarter. Airline insiders accept this will take time, with modifications such as new fuel tanks pushing out the transfer of some until next summer.
The attraction of the international market is clear. While a little domestic pricing power has returned, pushing up year-on-year revenue growth to 6.3 per cent in July, international revenues were 17 per cent higher over the same period. “The reason they are doing it is that the international industry is still regulated, and you can get away with higher costs,” says Sam Peltzman, professor emeritus of economics at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business.
The transatlantic market is Delta’s strongest international card. But with rivals also pushing more aircraft towards Europe, it stands at a disadvantage because its main hubs are away from the coasts which account for the bulk of originating US traffic. Moreover, its request to secure antitrust immunity to co-operate with Northwest and its partner Air France-KLM – which would help boost transfer traffic to the hubs – was turned down by the Department of Justice.

But Mr Peltzman believes this exodus abroad is simply storing up trouble for airlines which he says are still “tinkering” rather than challenging high costs head-on.

“They are going to get bitten by the same animals in the international markets,” he says. “It’s only a matter of time before we see a Jet-Blue-style operator over the Atlantic, and then that game will be over.”

I wondered why Boeing's 777 sales team are on the phone to Dublin so often.

4on4off
19th Jan 2006, 09:05
Probably seeking advice on how to get Boeing workers to pay for their own training.

BusyB1
19th Jan 2006, 09:10
Very timely Leo, with Ryanair parking all their aircraft!!

Looooong haul
19th Jan 2006, 09:21
I think that such operator already exists and is called ZOOM :)

wobble2plank
19th Jan 2006, 09:56
Let's take a toungue in cheek look at LHC's spin on the 'Lo-Co' out of Dublin's long
haul ops :-)
1. Note to self, Opportunity exists for LH ops over the pond, must jump on bandwagon.
2. Hold Boeing and Irish Aviation Authority to ransom until 777 rated as single pilot ops. Loads of automation and all these stick monkeys have to do is watch the computer so why do you need 2? (Self paid 777 ratings should generate a bit of cash too!)
3. Once certification has arrived buy out all the grounded united 777's for a song and strip any form of creature comforts out of them. Punters want entertainment? they can gamble or pay premium for a portable dvd player (note to customer service desks. NO personal dvd players or media players allowed else you pay 5 euros per passenger!). Food should rake in a fortune too, ensure the humidity in the cabin is kept low and salted food is served. Will generate great revenue from the drinks trolly.
4. Re train all pilots to be captains, needed for SP op's. As everyones a captain now there is no point in paying them so much so we can force a salary drop for all long haul operations.
5. Re roster all pilots to the dream of a roster.... 2 Sector days!!!! That should keep the moaners happy.
6. Fred flies the out bound sector, Dublin- Hicksville, NE ( It's on the continent so we'll advertise it as New York's suburbian airport!) Burt travels RHS as a passenger (Get the bloke/gal to pay premium rates for the seat, it's got a forward looking window, should net a few quid). Once on the ground, 15 minute turn around!!!!!! Burt climbs in the LHS and Fred the RHS (See above for ticketing). Back to Dublin asap swap and re-fly.
7. Note to Flight OP's, this creates the 2 sector days so watch for pilots trying to log 4 sectors, SP aircraft now.
8. PR department, don't forget to advertise our enhanced safety factors. Aircraft only needs 1 pilot but we are sticking 2 on board, that should keep the great un-washed coming.
9. Hype airport taxes so we can sell the seats for a pittance and still rake in
no-shows.
10 Sit back and wait for the cash to roll in prior to retirment.

411A
19th Jan 2006, 13:50
Hmmm, a JetBlue type of operator across the Atlantic?
Seems to me in the somewhat distant past, there was one...Laker Airways, with their Skytrain service.
I personally know Laker's past marketing manager, and he claims with the introduction of the Skytrain cheap fares, they sold five thousand tickets in the first two weeks...and it went up from there, as more aircraft were added.

Possible again for someone to do this?
One wonders....:cool:

20driver
19th Jan 2006, 14:43
I flew Laker - it was great. Really can't beat the DC-10 for legroom. They way he was run out of business was criminal. I seem to remember Sir Freddy eventually won some serious cash in court.
It's too bad for the majors. They can run to international service but they can't hide there for ever. Sort of like how Ford and GM basically gave up on making money on cars to rake it in on trucks and SUV's. Then those nasty little sons of Nippon started building the same, in Texas no less.
You've got to figure Jet Blue will go for it. They are building a very loyal client base that likes their brand in one of the largest international markets for air travel.

BEagle
19th Jan 2006, 16:29
It's bad enough (from what one hears) having the constant high pressure sales guff being forced on passengers during flights on a well-known cheap European airline - but imagine what 5-6 hours would be like on a pond crossing. No doubt to some disused SAC base with tumbleweed blowing down the runway, rather than an airport anyone's ever heard of?

20driver
19th Jan 2006, 16:54
Don't know about cheap Europeans but Jet Blue has being the past pax experience I've had in the US for years. No problem other than leg room with going across the pond with them. They also use that old SAC base called JFK but I can live with it.
20driver

hobie
19th Jan 2006, 17:06
Ryanair serviced 33,000,000 (thirty three million) passengers last year with a load factor of 84% .......

someone is going to do something similar for the Atlantic ... that's for sure .... :rolleyes:

Golf Charlie Charlie
19th Jan 2006, 17:46
I flew Laker - it was great. Really can't beat the DC-10 for legroom. They way he was run out of business was criminal.

He was subject to stiff competition, for sure, but it is not fair to say that "he was run out of business". Essentially, the airline collapsed because of Laker's own short-sightedness, financial naivety, over-confidence and denial.

Wizofoz
19th Jan 2006, 19:51
. Product differentiation is a must as business class passengers will not tolerate an economy service on a long flight.

When Herb started South-west, people said passenger wanted service on short flights. When Stelios started easy, he was tole European passengers demanded service. When Jet-Blue was started, they said Trans-continental passengers needed full service.

One-class, minimun servive/low price Trans-Atlantic will come.

RAT 5
19th Jan 2006, 20:29
Beagle,

The incessant chinese water torture of inflight hard-sell would drive you and others to the edge. It could induce air-rage. Your defence would then be that the airline had high-jacked your ears & brain, (even spam adverts on the IFE), driven you to explode and therefore been a major contributory factor in causing A.R. No case to answer.

M' case rests, M'lud!

CarbHeatIn
19th Jan 2006, 20:39
One-class, minimun servive/low price Trans-Atlantic will come.

Been to Sanford recently?

akerosid
19th Jan 2006, 20:48
I think it's going to happen and airlines, including dear old Aer Lingus, are looking into it carefully. Emirates has been talking about 750 seat A380s to Oz and Qantas's Jetstar subsidiary is now going into long haul.

Nearer to home, from EI's perspective, is the fact that FR has stated, openly that it will (albeit in a few years' time) go into long haul low cost. They will do what they're doing on short haul routes: pick the highest capacity aircraft at the best price they can get (FR's 738s will always be able to carry 9 more seats than any A320 - and that adds up to a lot of seats over a plane's lifetime) and fly them intensively. There'll be pay-per-view IFE and you'll buy yours meals on board (or even before). So, this is really the point to start from. Take the view that this IS going to happen, then ask the question: what are you going to do about it.

I believe EI is going to go down the low cost route and I also believe that this necessity is going to influence the kind of aircraft EI will choose. It doesn't surprise me that Boeing is battling hard for EI and it may well be trying to place 777s with them, but that will be (most likely) an interim aircraft; the real fight is between the A350-900 and the 787-10. The latter is wider (which means it can take 9 abreast, which the A350 can't), longer and Boeing is prepared to give pretty steep discounts. Sure, they may well go with the 350 (and many signs point to this), but they need to ask if this aircraft - which has been rejected in virtually every sales campaign it has fought - is the right aircraft to fight Ryanair. EI has a very significant advantage in that it has a significant head start over FR. Why waste it?

If they can get the 777s at an attractive rate, as an interim aircraft, great - but operate it at ten abreast, take full advantage of the regulatory freedom they have (particularly as the end of the stopover BS is at hand), expand aggressively and make sure that by the time FR enters the LH-loco market, that they have the Irish market sewn up.

(It's probably appropriate to mention that the 777-300 in a high density layout, would be pretty impressive as a LH-loco operation ... If they can get it at the right price ...)

With privatisation on the horizon, it's a good time for EI to start displaying some aggressive vision. Don't think that potential investors haven't heard about FR's plans; they'll want to hear something very convincing and visionary.

PAXboy
19th Jan 2006, 22:30
Don't forget that MoL has been on record as stating that he was against LH as the pilots would see it as a holiday and that he would not pay them to have a party down route.

The last time this subject was debated in PPRuNe, I gave the quote with chapter and verse but cannot find it now. I would take a small wager that it will be done by MoL's successor. Afterall, that person will want to make their own splash and pot of money. Which, of course, is a very good reason for MoL to stay on and do it!

AN2 Driver
19th Jan 2006, 22:52
When Herb started South-west, people said passenger wanted service on short flights. When Stelios started easy, he was tole European passengers demanded service. When Jet-Blue was started, they said Trans-continental passengers needed full service.
One-class, minimun servive/low price Trans-Atlantic will come.

End of the story will be how the businesses deal with it. Usually these days the beancounters get their way and if someone will offer LON-NYC for £10 they will put their collective feet down and send their flock over the atlantic that way, no matter how knackered they arrive, no matter that LON - NYC may well mean Manston to Albany. Happens with short haul, will happen with long haul. Ever been on a Tower 747 or a JAL Short Haul one? Take away another 2 inch of legroom, half the toilets on board and make the punters pay for them and you'll know what will happen.

Me thinks in the not too distant future we will see a lot of single class big airplanes and a sight more business jets than now. As in the rest of working life, the rift between those who afford themselves while making the decisions what the rest of us can afford will be getting wider and wider. Those who will afford themselves luxury will do so in a BBJ or G4, the rest of us can fold themselves into a 900 pax A380 (ah, where did those fancy bars go?) or 747-x and pay for their own food, entertainment (no sir, only the companies own DVD players may be used here, for safety reasons, yours is the same make? but it's missing the stamp, that will be £50 for 2 movies sir!) and bathroom.

20driver
20th Jan 2006, 15:59
The flip side to an economy big buse is all B class small bus. This is happening, Privatair for Lufthansa, EOS and Maxjet. Once some starts to strip the cream off the busy routes there is no choice but to go to an all economy model.
There is no way LH is going to be a haven for the legacy carriers. It is just a matter of time.

ALLDAYDELI
20th Jan 2006, 16:18
long haul loco may also not work due to asset utilisation. Current short haul loco airlines work on the basis of short ground turn around and high a/c utilisation. I know the sectors on l/haul would be greater but you would need a large network to keep the aircraft off-ground.

EhNonymous
20th Jan 2006, 16:24
After Eos (first) and perhaps MaxJet (second) fade away, there is opportunity for a real airline with 2 classes to make the transatlantic trip. But its going to take a different approach. I am counting on it - as I am in the middle of raising the capital to start... :ok:

2U5A
20th Jan 2006, 16:37
I have always thought that there may be a market for an airline to fly transatlantic under Low Cost colours but still be a seperate company. The idea being to feed into the Lo Co established domestic networks.
Example a jet blue/easy painted widebody JFK to Luton (TODA!!) or West Jet/Air Berlin YVC to DUS.

Just and idea!!!!

manintheback
20th Jan 2006, 17:13
End of the story will be how the businesses deal with it. Usually these days the beancounters get their way and if someone will offer LON-NYC for £10 they will put their collective feet down and send their flock over the atlantic that way, no matter how knackered they arrive, no matter that LON - NYC may well mean Manston to Albany.

And how correct you are. Where once we had an in-house travel booker, Biz Class over a certain number of hours, and were a major corporate client of 3 airlines, now the ticketing is outsourced with the specifics of the cheapest possible ticket, at the back and not too fussy where it originates and how many changes are thrown in to get there and back.