View Full Version : Air Tours at Risk

21st Sep 2001, 16:36
From Sept 17th Travel Trade Gazette:
"City analysts warn a fallout from the US attacks could plunge Airtours into crisis. They claim it will put paid to Airtours expansion plans and predict the operator will contract back to its core UK business. Airtours is said to be more exposed than its major rivals because of its huge US interests.
One analyst said: "Seventeen percent of Airtours earnings before interest comes from the US company TSI. All businesses are going to suffer as Americans simply stop travelling." He added: Airtours has a lot of problems at the moment and this could be the killer blow. "The company is not popular in the City - it is already struggling to make its figures. They are sitting on a time bomb."
But Airtours group chief executive Tim Bryne stressed that the company was 'robust'. He said: "The City expects us to deliver not just a recovery, but record profits of between 150 and 160 million. The business is in excellent shape with lots of cash."

Desk Driver
21st Sep 2001, 16:56
Share price currently 1:02 and falling, very tough times ahead for the Kestrel :(

21st Sep 2001, 17:19
Many thanks indeed, this is the second thread of this nature.

May I take this opportunity to wish you every success in your own career.

Thanks people....not

Just what the industry needs at present.

21st Sep 2001, 17:25

I read that article and I think that they haven't allowed for one thing , the fact that AIH has plenty of cash in the bank to weather a few storms , ar at least that's what the bosses claim. It says 17% of AIH earnings are from American interests, that means that 83% are from the interests in Britain , Canada , Germany ,Scandanavia , Carribean etc...

My opinion is that they need to reduce the American Business interests and of course all the others will be affected also but Airtours eggs aren't all in one basket so to speak. Coupled with the fact that a lot of flying is subbed to other companies they will downsize but not lose serious money .

As for the share price have you seen BA's lately, also First choice and I think if every airline related company has reduced in value immensly this last week. The bigger they are the harder they fall !!

Anyway heres hoping

Lou Scannon
21st Sep 2001, 20:06
Do not ask "For whom the bell tolls?"
It tolls for us all!

With apologies to Ernest Gann or someone with a similar name

Desk Driver
21st Sep 2001, 20:17
I'd say some are suffering more than others.

Current Price 110
Change on Day -25.00
Year High 335.50
Year Low 135.00

Current Price 152
Change on Day +9.00
Year High 463.00
Year Low 143.00

Current Price 77.50
Change on Day -1.00
Year High 174.00
Year Low 78.50

Final 3 Greens
21st Sep 2001, 21:13
Lou Scannon

Did the earth move for you???? He wrote that one too.

But then again, fate is the hunter.

really not
21st Sep 2001, 23:13
Apart from all the good news above, AIH should be able to weather better than some three letter airlines as it crews for the winter programme and then subcharters out for the extra in summer, also most of the winter holidays are sold, and with a bit (?) of luck the main fallout will be over before next season. I think we're all in for "interesting times" - may htey be short and painless

22nd Sep 2001, 00:32
'For whom the bell tolls? It toll for me, it tolls for thee.' Dunno who wrote it but first line was a title for one of Hemmingways' books, I think about the Spanish Civil War? Anyone?
Yeah not a lot of joy anywhere in the industry for any of us I'm afraid. Good luck Kestrel and keep flying. My comiserations for the thousands who have been laid off, done that route a couple of times and it's a bit trying.

22nd Sep 2001, 02:28

Within my short time in the industry, I am rapidly learning that there are a lot of people willing to spead random crap in this industry!

Have you nothig else to do people????


22nd Sep 2001, 04:37
OK, it's off the topic, but you did ask...

"For Whom the Bell Tolls" was written by Ernest Hemmingway, and is IMVHO his best book, (although my favourite short story is "The Old Man and the Sea")

The quote "Ask not for whom the bell tolls - it tolls for thee" is a slight misquote from a sermon given by the Scotish Catholic poet John Donne, possibly at St Pauls Catherderal around 1620. The same paragraph also gives us "No man is an island..."

No man is an island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the Continent, a part of the main; if a Clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a Promontory were, as well as if a Manor of thy friends or of thine own were; any man's death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind; and therefore, never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.

Especially poignant words following the events of the past days...

22nd Sep 2001, 13:11
"It matters not how strait the gate, how charged with punishment the scroll: I am the master of my fate: I am the captain of my soul."..even if you work for Virgin.

22nd Sep 2001, 14:44
KKKKKulture at last
nice to see it!!!!!

22nd Sep 2001, 16:18

Airtours cash resources are 320 MILLION.

Airtours deliberately under-size it's aircraft fleet and they are NOT yet committed to any third party flying for next summer, this means that their commitment to capacity is at least 25% less than at this time last year.

Sadly, every Airline is being stretched but let us at least try to be positive - Airtours staff are very thankful to be in a stronger position than most.

Good luck and commiserations to those of you who have recently been made redundant; some of us who are still in full time employment consider ourselves to be very fortunate!

An Airtours employee.

[ 22 September 2001: Message edited by: sapco2 ]

22nd Sep 2001, 17:24
cuban 8

what are you doin readin a rumor network if you are offended by rumors?


22nd Sep 2001, 17:50
My comment is not about Airtours, it is applicable to any charter airline linked to a tour operator group, and to any ad hoc passenger charter airline.

My neutral opinion on the subject is that we should look back at what happened during the Gulf War:

The European TO and charter business hardly got hurt during the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in August 1990. All was pre-booked.

The trouble came after the Desert Storm operation got started in February 1991, in full summer holiday booking season. There were fewer client monies came in, substantially reducing the 'mountains of (client) cash' the TO's used to sit on. In other words the cash only is there if the business is there. The business was not there so quite a TO company disappeared and quite a charter airline disappeared during 1991. This is the risk the industry is now facing again when military action will unfold.

The point on the 'strong' Airtours (or any other TO) cash position may unfortunately not be as forceful as presented earlier on this thread.

The other point stating the charter fleet of Airtours only partially covers the group travel requirements is of much more value in terms of job security.

It also means however that the ad hoc charter airlines are likely be the most affected in the next twelve months or so.

In conclusion, whilst I agree our countries should do what is required to keep such atrocious terrorism under control, I would hope for the US would exercise considerable restraint in their military action. That would be to the benefit of all.

22nd Sep 2001, 17:56

The trouble with rumour is that some of it is in fact DANGEROUS crap, Cuban 8 is entitled to his opinion just as those of us in the know about Airtours financial and business strengths are entitled to refute any potentially destructive reports!

22nd Sep 2001, 18:31
Yes this is a RUMOUR network. But if you cannot understand the negative and in cases distressing affect rumours about airline "x"'s prospects are, or holiday company "y" is doing, then you are really, really sad. This is not idle gossip about who serves the worst meals, who is the least punctual, or who gets away with paying the least. This is peoples LIVELIHOODS!

For pity's sake, cant we all lay off the "who's going bust next" line for a while? Or do people actually derive pleasure from it?

22nd Sep 2001, 21:29
I agree with QRH, stop guessing who's next.

It's probably more sickening than that, it probably some T*SSER out there hoping that AIRTOURS go under, believing in some twisted way that if AIRTOURS do, their job will be safe

22nd Sep 2001, 22:29
Those in the know are fully aware that AIH are in a better position than most to weather any storm.

For the mischief makers and those participating in the hairdresser's gossip on this thread, AIH were on the BBC news this evening to say that the current problems were going to cost the company "About 10 million." They also said that before last week's events occurred, they were heading for the most profitable summer ever.



ps Thanks to the AIH 330 this am who accomodated a stack change at short notice. :cool:

Nat Track
23rd Sep 2001, 13:35
This thread is a wind up. :cool:

Share prices matter to companies that have shares scattered amongst the financial community (a well known collection of cowardly-quickfix-cut'n'runners). By far the majority of Airtours shares are owed by individuals who have a vested interest in the Group's future growth on a long term basis.

Presently, due to a delayed expansion program, Airtours has a good deal more slack and resource than any of its competitors. So those who are concerned about the airline(s) controlled by Airtours need fear little from the harbingers of gloom as they obviously benefit little from Airtours' success and wish to spread rumours in the vain hope of damaging Airtours moral.

One should spend little time reading stuff by any organisation that cannot even spell Airtours. :p

23rd Sep 2001, 15:13
I would rather be working for Airtours at the present time than a lot of the opposition. T would suggest that the hardest hit are going to be those airlines that do a lot of subcharter work for the likes of Airtours. I have left a message with my stockbroker to buy Airours shares on first trading Monday.

23rd Sep 2001, 21:07
RN, Some other three letter airlines base there buissness plan on having no flying in the winter, and also have no exposure to the US market.

24th Sep 2001, 21:16
I think that the hike in the Airtours share price today just proves what a stupid ill informed wind up this thread has been and exposed it for the complete load of b**locks that it is!

24th Sep 2001, 23:57
Found this at Telet ext.co.uk (http://www.teletext.co.uk/news/story.asp?intregionid=11&intarticlenumber=2&intSubsectionID=1&From=H&indent=30) NEWS STORY

Manchester-based travel operator Airtours has warned job losses cannot be ruled out in the wake of the terrorist attacks in the US.

Chief executive Tim Byrne said: "I don't think you can rule out job losses - we will do what we have to in these circumstances to tighten our belt."

The group revealed earlier the attacks had already cost it 10m.

RECEIVED: 24/09/01 17:37:25

Sorry :confused:

homer j
25th Sep 2001, 02:03
OK "spannersatcx" point noted. However, I'd postulate that NO CARRIER can give complete assurances about pilot employment in these troubled times.

AIH has stated that job losses (anywhere in the group) would be a last resort, and for that all AIH employees should be very grateful. I'll bet that other scheduled and charter companies wish they could have made a similar positive statement, instead of those announcing "downsizing".

AIH is a VERY shrewd organisation, and is better placed than ANY other holiday company to weather this storm.

AIH has fuel prices hedged for next year, a limited committment to beds for the upcoming season, and staffing levels that would allow a 20%+ reduction in demand. (ie. the extra flying that currently goes to AAM,BY,MON, JKK...etc. would have to disappear before AIH starts to suffer any reduction in workforce.)

Not ideal, and no good for competitors, but AIH is stronger than PPRune seems to think!

Has anybody spotted which company had an
18%+ rise in it's value today?

25th Sep 2001, 03:08
And only this last summer season, did they have the need to take on at least 500+ cabin crew for manchester alone!! How much work do they have??? Imagine the other bases around the country!! How many other operators take on that many seasonal crew and still sub out to the others??? :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D

[ 24 September 2001: Message edited by: EGCC24L ]

le loup garou
27th Sep 2001, 05:20
It amazes me sitting here that there are certain people who seem to be gaining so much pleasure from the fact that the airline industry is in a precarious position. Everyday i am hearing of another airline with it's back supposedly against the wall, and long after your mouths have stopped watering on these pages the sad fact of the matter will be that there will be many thousands of good men and women out of work with very few options. I have to go now as there are shadows from the vultures above my head. :rolleyes:

Max Continuous
27th Sep 2001, 12:56
Shouldn't be that surprising, Loupy. The German word is "Schadenfreud" I think, the taking of enjoyment from other people's misfortunes. All of us have a shadow side, and much though we like to deny it, there's psychological evidence to show there's usually just a teensy weensy tingle of excitement when our friends get into trouble.......