Bird Flu scare on plane

[niceneasy]

Bird flu scare on plane
January 4, 2006 - 4:16PM

Tests are being done on a man who was taken into isolation at a Sydney hospital after arriving on a flight from South-East Asia.

But Prince of Wales Hospital is refusing to confirm reports the man, whose age is not known, has a suspected case of avian influenza.

"We haven't got a diagnosis at this stage," a hospital spokesman said.

He arrived at Sydney Airport and was admitted to Prince of Wales between 1pm (AEDT) and 1.30pm, the spokesman said.

"We have admitted a man, but I can't talk about the condition," the spokesman said.

"He was delivered to us from the airport."

ABC radio reported the man collapsed on a flight from Taipei and was carried off the aircraft.

AQIS said its officers had spoken to the passenger before he was taken away by ambulance.

"We were alerted by the airline that there was a sick passenger on board," a spokeswoman said.

"The passenger was interviewed and we consulted the NSW Health chief medical officer, who advised that there was no evidence of any quarantinable disease.

"The passenger was released and taken by ambulance to Prince of Wales Hospital."

- AAP

[Rainboe]

The hysteria starts. Now anybody with flu symptoms will be treated like a pariah. In fact, as far as I can see, Avain flu is in the vast majority of cases, caught by intimate contact with infected fowl. Like drinking raw duck blood soup (yes, they do!), manual slaughter. The actual cases of person to person transmissability are very rare- some very few hospital staff have succumbed, but that would appear to be most likely when involved with intimate investigation and treatment. That is not to say that sometime, somewhere, inter-person transmissability will not increase, but it seems in its exceedingly rare human form that it is very easy to contain in its rare outbreaks. I don't think there is any point getting worried about getting hold of Tamiflu! I still think a worse nightmare (if you're not a bird) are Lassa Fever, and the big one......Ebola. Now that is nasty.

[HotelGym]

As a matter of fact the threat posed by bird flu is much greater than anything we have faced for a long time. It is accepted that the first thing the W.H.O. will do to stop it is to advise people all over the world NOT to travel. It will make SARS look like the common cold. If the authorities want to treat people like pariah's then it's ok with me. This thing has the potential to ground a LOT of airlines. Tamiflu will probably be useless because the mutation which will eventualy cause the pan-demic is an unknown quantity. Sorry to sound all doom and gloom but someone had to put this in perspective. Be very careful saying things like
but it seems in its exceedingly rare human form that it is very easy to contain in its rare outbreaksThis is not true and as a group at the sharp end of this we need vigilance!

[Rainboe]

I just find it difficult to believe at the moment. Yes, the world suffered a serious outbreak of suspected Avian Flu (I think it has not been completely confirmed it was that) in 1918/9. This bird influenza has been out there in the wild all the time. There is no more reason why it should break out now than in 1966. Yes it is mutating all the time and it will one day be a terrible killer, but whether that time is actually now or later this year is a question mark, and I really don't see the signs yet. Nobody has it in Europe/States/Canada/Africa/S America. The sufferers in Asia caught it virtually unanimously from direct contact with bird carcases, and as I said, person to person infection is just about unheard of. I've got a feeling this will quietly slip out of the headlines this year, but it will pop up when that virus has sorted out successful transmission. Yes- it will be a big blow to the world sometime, but it doesn't necessarily mean quite yet. It has been out there throughout history- I think a lot of the problem is we have recently discovered what it is and where it is. It has expanded amongst the bird population- that doesn't mean it has made the species jump successfully yet. So panicking because somebody arrives after an overnight flight with probably a serious dose of flu and feeling well grotty won't achieve anything! I still think there is far more risk of pandemics of Smallpox/Ebola whatever- the clasical biblical population decimators.
In the meantime, it is entertaining seeing our politicians (I find it impossible to use a capital letter for any of them) rushing to ensure supplies of anti-flu doses for themselves!

[bear11]

HotelGym,

before you hand out the Kool-Aid laced with cyanide: Rainboe makes perfectly points and has a normal perspective - if you want to sound like the Daily Star, try another website! It expands amongst the bird population because birds don't have an immune system per se - and the bird version hardly mutates because it doesn't need to, having such an easy victim. Don't confuse the threat with the reality on the ground.

[Dr Dave]

Rainboe

A new strain of flu did appear in the late 1960's, but 1968-69 not 1966.

A little historical perspective:

Known historical flu pandemics:
412 BC (reported by Hippocrates)
A number of epidemics in the Middle Ages
1510
1580 - started in Asia, in 6 weeks it afflicted all of Europe. Death rates were high; 9,000 of 80,000 people died in Rome; some Spanish cities were "nearly entirely depopulated".
During the 17th century, a number of epidemics were reported
1729-30
1732-33
1781-82
1830-31
1833-34
1889-90 (Russian Flu): killed about 1 million.

20th Century:
Three pandemics have occurred, caused by an H1, an H2, and an H3 strain. 1918-19 (Spanish Flu): H1N1 variant. killed 500,000 in USA and global mortality may have been as high as 100 million.
1957-58 (Asian Flu): H2N2 variant: killed 1 million.
1968-69 (Hong Kong Flu) H3N2: killed 1-2 million.

So, ten pandemics have been recorded in the past 300 years, with 10 to 49 years between events.

Flu evolves and mutates continually. Thus the strains that sit in the avian population can and do change to be able to infect humans. The recent mutations mean that the newest strains can infect people, but do not transfer easily. However, if they were to gain that ability (perhaps by combining with another flu virus that can) then a pandemic will occur unless it can be contained. It is the latter that would lead to the need for travel restrictions. We are one step from this mutation - it may or may not occur this time, but will sooner or later.

This is very hyped at the moment, but the threat is real.

Dr Dave (for info I am the Wilson Professor of Hazard and Risk at the University of Durham, UK).

[mocoman]

Interesting CDC assessment of pandemic flu can be found here:

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic/keyfacts.htm#preparing

The probability of an ebola pandemic, while being significantly more horrific since the mortality rate is in the order of 80-90%, is lower due to the transmission method and disease manifestation profile of the known Ebola virus variants.

Until now, there have been no confirmed cases of Ebola in a form that is communicable in an airborne state between humans; although airborne transmission between non-human primates HAS been observed under lab conditions.

The worst-case scenario would be an infected person(mostly symptomless apart from a cough or similar) embarking on a long-haul flight, where the recycling of air and particulate matter could be an ideal environment for a viral agent transmissible in an aerosol state, while carrying a strain of Ebola or similar agent capable of human-human airborne infection. God help us if that scenario were ever to appear..:ouch:

While this scenario, and similar ones involving avian flu, are possibilities (some would say inevitablities) the scaremongering that sometimes occurs by politicians and press in relation to this only serves to fan the flames of, currently, un-warranted paranoia.

However that said; I would agree with HotelGym that any precautions currently in place are not to be decried but welcomed since the possibility of a pandemic occuring again DOES exist.

EDIT: Dr Dave posted as I was writing but the link I gave contains a similar summary of his post

[jackbauer]

bear11 Your ignorance about this is frightening. Never I mean never has aviation faced a potential problem like this before. The risk of a pan-demic is very real and it's aviation which will be the first hit. Anything to prevent this is vital. Hotel Gym is correct in his statement that it's imperative to stop this from getting to the stage where it becomes uncontrollable. This is a very good web site to discuss this topic and saying otherwise is just ridiculous.

[Dr Dave]

Bear11

I don't know where you got the idea that Chickens do not have an immune system per se, but this is utterly incorrect. Indeed, the immune system is well-studied, mainly because some viruses are effective at causing immunosuppression, which is rather interesting in the context of a well-known virus in humans.

Dr Dave

[bear11]

Dave,

sorry - badly written. Isn't it the case that they recently found some bird samples in the US from around the time of the Spanish flu, analysed them and found that the bird virus had mutated very little over time, whereas the human flu equivalent has shown far more adaptability and mutation over time given the human immune system is more efficient at combating it?

I can't find the reference with a quick Google - the net is clogged with people like Jack buying or selling "cures".

Edited to add:

http://www.truthout.org/issues_05/110805HA.shtml

- not exactly what I was looking for, but refers to the work by Taubenberger

[nnc0]

The worst-case scenario would be an infected person...embarking on a long-haul flight, where the recycling of air and particulate matter could be an ideal environment for a viral agent transmissible in an aerosol state ....capable of human-human airborne infection.

Really stupid question here, (but if you knew me you'd understand) -

Having seen the economic impact of SARS on our business I know that should widespread human to human transmission of avian flu develop we'd all be devastated. Still knowing next to nothing about flu transmission though, is there anything that can be done by an airline to avoid or minimize it and keep flying? Pre check in screening, air con filters, pax masks, etc?

[Sunfish]

The ABC is now reporting that there is no evidence the person concerned is suffering from H5N1 bird flu. Panic over.

Living in a city where we had about three cases of SARS, I can testify to the likely severe effect of a major flu pandemic on the airline industry.

One can only hope that when the virus mutates to a human to human transmissible form that it's virulence decreases.


From the ABC:

"Health authorities say there is no evidence that a passenger who arrived in Australia today with flu-like symptoms after travelling through Asia has bird flu.

Ten arrivals gates at Sydney International Airport and the Eva Air flight from Taipei were quarantined for an hour as a precaution.

New South Wales Health says the man is in isolation and under routine observation in the Prince of Wales Hospital.

Dr Jeremy McAnulty from New South Wales Health says there is no risk to other passengers on the flight.

"Other people on the plane were spoken to and there was no need to screen," he said.

"We don't believe that the person has avian influenza so we don't believe there is a risk to those other people.

"However details of people around the person have been taken and if it turns out that the person has some other infectious disease then we will be able to contact those people, as is the routine, as we do from time-to-time."

[jackbauer]

A Turkish boy has just been confirmed to have died of the H5N1 strain of the virus and his sister is suspected to be infected also. Guys like bear11 and Rainboe, you need to be aware this thing has the potential to be lethal to up to 15 million people if it becomes transmissable between humans! Now tell us it's all an OTT tabloid plot!

[christep]

Many of you may be surprised to know that the number of people who died of pneumonia of all forms (including SARS) in Hong Kong (which was seen as the epicentre) during the SARS hysteria was in fact not significantly higher than the number dying in a typical year - the only difference was that in a proportion of the cases the cause was labelled as SARS instead of non-specific atypical pneumonia. Moreover, the health authorities in HK have admitted that most (if not all) of the very small number of otherwise healthy, young people who died were actually killed at least in part by the overly aggressive (frankly, panicky) treatment that they were given. Dozens more people who, in retrospect, just needed fresh air, a bit of exercise and a good diet to help their immune systems deal with it have instead been left with chronic bone-wasting diseases and crippled for life by the steroids and other drugs meted out to them.

The whole SARS thing was essentially mass-hysteria in response to a very slightly elevated risk of illness due to a slightly different form of pneumonia. (Bear in mind that about 50% of "pneumonia" deaths (in HK at least) are "non-specific" - i.e. that the specific pathogen involved is never clearly identified.)

[DryV1]

Hi,
To keep this in proportion, it was also announced that both of the children who, sadly,died had been handling sick poultry. It was in the Press so it must be true!!