A bright or dim future for AG?

[zakpeegoodus]

How do you see the state of Ag aviation in future years? Do you think water restrictions in the rice/cotton areas will slow the industry considerably?

Do you see Ag flying as an expanding, or contracting occupation?

[maxspeed]

If you can tell me what the weather is going to do in the next few years mate. Then I'm sure I can answer your questions with some some dergree of confidance.;)

[Paint The Sky Pink!]

When your involved in the farming sector, nothing is predictable. All NSW needs is a change of Govt. and a whole lot of things could change for the better!

PTSP!

[SNS3Guppy]

I don't know about Australia today (haven't been back in 14 years), but in the US, ag has been headed south for about 2 decades now. Some would say a lot more.

Declining ariculture, bigger more expensive airplanes, less jobs, more use of chemigation and ground rigs, ever increasing litigation and liability, not to mention lean season after lean season (with more and more folks turning to fire because ag isn't paying the bills)...some would say a dying industry. Some would say dead.

Fire is dead next season too, with the loss of funding that's coming.

[poteroo]

All Commercial Spraying will be Harder Going

As earlier posts have noted - there are many reasons.

The greatest threat to spraying - in the longer term - is pest and disease resistant crops Eventually, GM varieties will be approved for all the major crops such as wheat, and the total spraying outlays will shrink, dramatically. Give it 10 years. Cross contamination of seed sources will ensure we'll all be GM within that time.

In the shorter term, the most obvious thing that I see is that there will be increased anti-spray drift legislation and regulation Now much of this is due the the APVMA reviewing products, and applying new numbers to parameters such as distance from water, dwellings etc. In other areas, it is state bureaucracies developing new spraydrift regulation via reviews and subsequent 'de-facto' legislation via Codes-of-Practice We currently have a Fed and a State Code-of-Spraying Practice....and they are not the same. But, they apply to everyone -air,ground,commercial/private. Government continues to intrude into our industry.

In the medium term, what is likely to adversely affect aerial ag and ground operators, is the manufacturers R&D into more 'novel' ways to control pests,diseases and weeds. These may include completely different principles, or, non-pesticide 'chemicals', or may include different methods of delivery...take 'in-furrow' for example.

'In-Furrow' is where pesticide is placed close to the root zone of crops with, or seperate, to the fertilisers. It may be granule or liquid. I've never seen so rapid acceptance by broadacre farmers, (at least in WA), of a concept - because it is to all intents drift free, and safe to everything except the immediate soil fauna...(a different, but valid problem). Since the price of chemicals has fallen substantially in the past 10 years, it's now possible to extend the 'life' of a control via a higher dosage. As well, in the broadacre cropping world, row spacings have been widened...meaning that rates/treated hectare have increased considerably = longer effect.

The other medium term problem for aerial ag is the concept of 'tramlining' using 'DGPS' controlled autosteer in farm equipment. This allows for better accuracy, and so more efficient ground application - a 3-5% saving. Because of the permanent wheeltracks, ground equipment is able to access paddocks almost regardless of soil moisture. Now all of this makes it more financially viable to buy $400k high clearence / wide track / self-propelled booms. And, these can get over a lot of ground in a day when they have 5000L on board, and 35m booms. The work rate might not be up to aerial - but spraying need not be ceased due to wind. 600ha per day is not uncommon. Most of them are able to night spray, and with the GPS controlled autotracking, it's only a question of whether the product will work at night.

I think the outlook is also for a continuation of companies avoiding aerial application on the labels of new products. This will bite, because, whilst there are new products continuing to reach the market, less of the total market will be applicable by air.

On the positive side - (at last !!) - the continued amalgamation of broadacre farms into huge entities, the increased diversity of crops, increased use of crop protection products, and the increased use of agronomists and consultants to decide on spraying....leads on to the owners having close ties with both ground and aerial applicators. Having the customer take an equity position in your spray unit might be the way of the future - because it provides for mutual security.

I've only touched on a few points, because it's a huge industry. Hope that it's of interest to aggies and others in agriculture.

happy days,

[CRUZN]

Well answered RV-6 VNE...one thing that you didn't cover was individual and Company resolve...to survive in the past all we did was fly because the work load maintained viability. By looking out-side the square and this is not easy as humans are inherently lazy there are opportunities for diversification. These might not be as lucrative as Ag flying but if operators use their developed business skills then these extensions to your business will help Companies survive through the lean times.
The great thing about nature is it has a habit of hitting back...around Gatton in the eighties GM was being used in Broccalli till mother nature produced a resistant caterpillar. This sort of natural selection is occuring in todays Cotton though not much is being said. Monsanto will continue with 'we have no resistance to our genes' till the top off the mast dissappears below the waves. Nothing is bullet proof.
The lack of water over the past 4 years has been particularly boring (and expensive) but its easy to look at negatives' that only drives the thoughts deeper into despair.
I have seen Companies starting to extend their operations into areas such as micro-fine application, oil slicks etc;
I have also seen Companies successfully competeing against ground-rigs by improving the way they operate....this is the key to our longevity.
The 4A's are working hard to provide standards that can be adopted to at least stem the legislative tide.
The amount of innovation coming out of the industry is also an indication of a sustained fight back.
The trick is don't sit on your back-side and expect it to come to you....
:ok:

[zakpeegoodus]

A great (if not depressing) post RV6, very informative…
All in all, Ag flying no longer sounds like a promising or wise career choice.
Maybe in practical terms ‘thinking outside the square’ will involve an aviation career outside any aspirations of Ag….
It appears there will always be a small circle of pilots who make a great living out of Ag, but it will be a diminishing circle, becoming harder and harder to get into? :ugh:
Probably better to focus my individual resolve elsewhere….

[SNS3Guppy]

Ag was never a "promising career choice." Is is an incoming or living. It's never been a great one.

What it is not is an entry level job.

[currawong]

Oil shocks (how many?) were going to end it.

Removal of fertiliser subsidies was going to end it.

The Greenies were going to kill it.

GM was going to make it redundant.

It is still here. It will stay in one form or another for some time to come.

:ok:

[the wizard of auz]

Great post RV6. Given your occupation, your still on the ball with it all. (I thought you were retiring).
I guess there will alway be a place for airial application when the conditions are right (or wrong for the rowgators and such) like last years striped rust outbreak. the paddocks were to wet to get into and the crops needed immediate attention. I also think there might still be a place for them with the blokes who use a knock down like Reglone (do they still use that stuff?) before harvest.
Your suggestion of getting the customer to have a finanicial interest in the aircraft is exactly the line I have been persuing, and there seems to be a showing of interest, mainly by those that got caught with the rust problem last year, that couldn't get aircraft.
the days of whacking a crop in the ground and hoping it'll grow are well and truely over. it is all science and accounting nowdays, and if its not going to keep the accountant happy, its not going to happen. Its pretty hard to compete with the ground based application units these days, as well as the in row technology being used.

[jon s gull]

Yup can all be very depressing if we concentrate too hard on the negatives.
So to add to the plus side
minimum till farming has been good ,timely application to conserve moisture
new technologies like biological sprays, I preffer the term ,natural sprays , when talking to growers.
Suspension spraying , great new product.
foliar fertilisers
Turbines and gps, to reduce costs dramatically
new low drift equipment and techniques
prescription gps flow control application

This Industry has possibly always only been for the diehard pilot.There are a lot of easier, cleaner and safer ways to make a living, but if they are not for you then Ag may be.
Those of us in the industry have far more to do with the future of our industry than say, an airline jockey. If we present a proffesssional an concerted front, and if the AAAA's gets support and cooperation from the Industry we may just survive , but it is in our hands and I suspect that is the way we like it.

Skaal

[poteroo]

New Opportunities

Agriculture is still in the classic cost:price squeeze - which began back in the 70's really. But, there will be new spraying markets arise, as J.S.Gull has suggested. Some of those that I'm aware of, for the broadacre,include:

* folliar trace elements including copper, manganese - perhaps related to frost reduction aims

* foliar nitrogen 'top-ups' particularly for 'high' rainfall crops where paddock access limits booms

* 'crop-topping' for weed seed set control - once regos can be obtained for air - if they can...it depends on drift control.

* 'biologicals' for suppression of all manner of pests and even diseases- an increasing number of these can be expected.

* new and wider spectrum fungicides for cereal crops - quite a few good ones on the way

* even cheaper generic fungicides which will encourage more farmers to control diseases, (eg, Septoria,yellow leaf spot,net blotches), which they would not have done up to now. NO-TILL + stubble retention will guarantee there will be more foliar diseases in all cereals.

* and, a wider range of crops will be grown - each with new problems. Current research includes at least another 4-5 of these. We might see crops grown specifically for biofuels production.

* and, we can expect to see more canola, chickpeas, beans, and peas being grown as better varieties reach the market to permit this in more regions. Cereal crops need wider 'breaks' to hold foliar diseases in check- so there will be more alternative 'broadleaf' crops in our future. Unless prices really take a dive !!


Most of the above will happen - but whether you share in the increased spraying will depend on whether you can convince the farmer that you are an essential part of his business future. This means offering a service which integrates into his cropping activities, and is there every season - not just when it's too wet !! As you all know, continuity of work is what's needed.

Lots of ground contractors now become involved in the crop planning and so can see their workload for months ahead. Many also offer advice on product, timing,etc....in many cases replacing high priced consultants because the contractor is the person with the practical experience. Aggies need to compete in this arena if they are to really get into the emerging markets.

As I see it, the aggie needs to be really on top of chemical knowledge, and not leave the decisions entirely to the agronomist. If it all goes pear shaped - you'll be the one hanging out for payment - the agronomist will still be paid by Elders or Landmark, regardless of outcome. The Chemical Rating doesn't qualify you to do anything other than read the label!



I think that you have to become important to the farmers planning because you have sound technical knowhow - and that doesn't require a degree! It does require an interest,keeping records,and following up on results.


happy days,