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sling load
2nd Dec 2005, 01:20
From the Australian Newspaper,
Boeing nose ahead in Qantas order race
Geoffrey Thomas
December 02, 2005
BOEING appears set to win the lion's share of the Qantas fleet order for 100 mid-sized medium- and ultra-long-range aircraft.

The order is worth $15 billion and is to be announced next week.

This week, Boeing was handed unexpected help in the high-stakes poker game that pits its ultra-long-range 300-seat 777-200LR and its 230 to 280-seat, medium-to-long-range 787 against Airbus's A340 and A350.

In an unusual attack, Emirates president Tim Clark has stung Europe's Airbus in the Flight International journal, saying his airline must be convinced that the 250 to 290-seat A350 would not repeat the "misses" by Airbus in performance and delivery, if the Europeans were to beat the Boeing 787. Emirates has held off ordering either aircraft as it tries to convince Boeing to build a larger version of the 787, the 787-10 - which is the airline's preferred option.

Boeing also said yesterday that it had reduced the Boeing 777-300ER/200LR fuel burn by 1.4 per cent with aerodynamic improvements and weight savings.









The fuel burn reduction comes on top of the 2 per cent improvement achieved during the flight test program, which finished late last year for the 777-300ER. These improvements mean the 777-200LR will be capable of a Sydney-London non-stop flight with an economical payload, Qantas insiders say.

While the 777-200LR appears to be a clear winner over the A340-500 for the ultra-long-range hub-busting mission for Qantas, the race for the larger order, between the 787 and A350, is closer run, with the 787 a short nose in front.

The problem for Airbus is that it has been playing catch-up with a derivative design - albeit a potent derivative.

Initially, Airbus dismissed Boeing's 787 Dreamliner as "dreaming in Seattle", then Airbus CEO Noel Forgard described the 787 to German media as just a "Chinese copy of the A330".

Eventually, Airbus was forced to respond in December last year with the A350 - a significantly modified A330 with 787 engines and a composite wing.

However, the manufacturer elected to stay with its A330 fuselage cross-section, which itself is identical to the original A300 launched in 1969.

Boeing from the outset has pushed the technology envelope on the 787 with an all-composite fuselage, which gives greater strength and is lighter than traditional aluminium.

An all-composite fuselage leads to significant passenger benefits such as lower pressurisation level - 6000ft - for the entire flight and higher humidity to reduce dehydration.

Most airlines responded favourably and Airbus lost key battles at Air India, Air Canada and Northwest Airlines.

The Air Canada loss was a savage blow. The airline replaced its entire A330 and A340 fleet with 96 777s and 787s.

Airbus went back to the drawing board and its chief operating officer commercial, John Leahy, was able to tell the media at the Paris Air Show in June that the European manufacturer had "finally got it right" - after the fourth redesign.

The orders started to flow and the A350 has now garnered 11 customers for 155 aircraft with China's Sichuan Airlines announcing plans to buy the A350 yesterday.

But Boeing has bragging rights with 309 of its 787s sold to 25 airlines including blue-chip carriers such as All Nippon Airways, Japan Air Lines, Air Canada, Air New Zealand and Continental.

Bragging rights aside, Qantas is an extremely tough customer and Boeing and Airbus heavyweights have been in town this week fine-tuning their proposals.

Both have ground to make up - or bridges to mend.

Boeing suffered from a bout of pricing arrogance through 2003 and 2004, which has now disappeared with the very public demise of president Harry Stonecipher earlier this year.

The Chicago-based aerospace giant has never been more focused on the customer and has tackled its pricing to match the market by increasing production of its 777s, 737s and 787s to deliver the cost savings it needs to make.

Meantime, Airbus has infuriated airlines with delays in the giant A380 program. Singapore Airlines CEO Chew Choon Seng, speaking on the German TV program Focus, said: "Airbus took some time to acknowledge the delay in the timetable for the A380 first delivery. I would have expected more sincerity."

That comment came after Mr Chew and Qantas CEO Geoff Dixon sat through a dinner at June's International Air Transport Association conference in Tokyo, where Airbus's Mr Leahy told an amazed audience of airline CEOs the A380 delays were due to special airline specifications.

That glib remark irritated airline CEOs, who pointed out that the features they were specifying were nothing compared with the McDonald's, duty-free shops etc that Airbus was touting in its advertising and marketing presentations for the A380.

However, delays in delivering aircraft are nothing new, with the 747-400 more than nine months late and the MD-11 almost a year late.

In 1997, Boeing irritated customers when it tried to ramp up production too quickly and its lines became snarled, forcing a construction halt for one month of the 747 and 737. It cost the company billions and executives were sacked.

But on guarantees, Boeing's conservatism generally pays off with the manufacturer typically exceeding its contract promises.

That conservatism is starting to pay big dividends on the 787 with Boeing able to promise Qantas special versions to meet its particular requirements for extra range on the one hand, and a lighter version on the other for domestic routes.

Boeing also argues that the 787 is at the beginning of its life with more potential for growth than the A350.

And the ace up Boeing's sleeve - acknowledged by Airbus - is the 787's range, which gives the aircraft a clear advantage.

Qantas wants to use the larger 787-9 on what are termed "long thin routes" across the Pacific, linking Sydney with Seattle or San Francisco; Adelaide to Los Angeles; and to operate west coast Australia to London non-stop.

Its smaller and lighter brother, the 787-8, will perform the Brisbane-Sydney-Melbourne CityFlyer every thirty minutes.

Also working in the 787's favour is the Qantas internal view that the "next thing" for airlines will be a replacement for the 737 and A320. The Qantas view is that it will be a 130-230 seat version of the 787 with its composite fuselage.

Boeing is clearly well down the learning curve on the manufacture and use of composites, and Qantas wants to keep pace with the cutting edge of technology. However, some analysts see Airbus picking up orders for its A350 from JetStar International.

The Qantas board meets next Wednesday and an announcement is expected that day.

Geoffrey Thomas is co-author of Boeing 787 Dreamliner - Flying Redefined.

TIMMEEEE
2nd Dec 2005, 03:36
I think long term the QF fleet will be A380/B777/B787.

Not only have Airbus deceived some of their best and most potential future clients, but are off the mark in both delivery (which will cost Airbus 10's of millions of dollars) as well as performance targets.
At least the yanks were up front and honest when the B744 was late in delivery rather than making trumped-up excuses.

The B777 as opposed to the A380 has not only achieved its design performance criteria but improved upon it.

The only way for Airbus to secure an order is to significantly reduce the price and even then they may not meet their delivery or performance criteria.

As one very smart person told me:

The only airlines that buy Airbus are those that cant afford Boeings.

Now lets see what all those brainwashed Airbus drivers have to say.
Bring it on fellas - let the games begin!!!

jandakotpilot
2nd Dec 2005, 14:57
Best of luck to the Boeing camp, they are on a winner!

ratpoison
3rd Dec 2005, 07:14
Now, what's that saying.

"If it's not Boeing, Airbus will get us going" :p

Buster Hyman
3rd Dec 2005, 09:48
"If it's not Boeing, then theres not a lot of options!"

GT Should you really be using "blue-chip airlines" and "Air New Zealand" in the same sentence???:E :ouch:

Skinny Dog
3rd Dec 2005, 21:39
Qf need to do something soon or they will be left behind. Item below was in the press.

HONG KONG: Hong Kong airline Cathay Pacific announced Thursday it planned to buy 36 new long-range Boeing 777-300ERs aircraft in what it described as its biggest ever single order of new planes.

Cathay Pacific said it had made commitments to buy 16 of the Boeing planes and taken options on another 20.

It added that it would also buy three A330-300s from Boeing's great European aerospace rival Airbus.

Cathay Pacific said in a statement the B777's would be acquired through a combination of 12 direct purchases from Boeing and four operating leases from International Lease Finance Corp. (ILFC).

The three new A330-300s will also be acquired via operating leases from ILFC.

ur2
3rd Dec 2005, 22:01
Skinny Dog,
I think QF are doing something about it, they are ordering 100 a/c, more than twice CA is ordering.

opps, I mean Cathay, not China Airlines.

sling load
4th Dec 2005, 00:25
Qantas flags international routes for Jetstar
The Qantas board is being urged to consider allowing budget airline Jetstar to fly international routes.

Chief executive Geoff Dixon has told ABC's Inside Business program, he will tell the board that the Jetstar domestic success could be replicated in the international market.

The board of Qantas will meet next week to consider the recommendation.

If approved it could be up and running in 12 months.

Mr Dixon says the move would not impact on Qantas operations.

"We haven't announced the routes but what I can say would be initially within eight to 10 hours of Australia," he said.

"Routes that either Qantas has withdrawn from in the past 10 years or may have withdrawn over the last year or so and also new routes.

"Certainly we want to try and find ones that Qantas and Australian carriers don't fly to.

"Our whole DNA is to make sure that Qantas, the Qantas group, but particularly the Qantas brand is very successful.

"I don't think in our lifetime that we will ever see a Jetstar any more than 20 per cent maximum the size of a Qantas."

geoffrey thomas
5th Dec 2005, 07:07
Hi Buster

In fact I will go further. They are now "Royal" Blue Chip. Air NZ's new makeover is one of the best I have seen in many years. In no way does it resemble the old 2001 airline. They are shaping as a serious competitor to QF on the Pacific.

Best GT

Buster Hyman
5th Dec 2005, 08:59
Fair enough GT! Should they, perhaps, be manouvering to get a bigger slice of that market before EK & SQ try to saturate it? Make hay while the sun shines...so to speak.

geoffrey thomas
5th Dec 2005, 09:20
Very good question!
I think the only thing holding them back is their own confidence in their ability. Air NZ is sitting on 38 price rights on 777s and 787s which were acquired at the right time last year before both aircraft became the hottest selling aircraft in the industry. If QF is not prepared to operate city pairs like ADL-LAX or SYD-SEA etc then Air NZ may well do it.
One of the things that is not widely known is that Air NZ has 34 inch in Y, Premium Y with 39 inch seat pitch and Branson's flat beds in the front end. It is my humble view that Air NZ has a cabin configuration that is at the industry's cutting edge and what travellers want.
Best GT