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Katoi
20th Sep 2001, 01:32
Sunday Telegraph 2 Sep 2001. Quote from Ray Webster:

"We've been praying for a downturn for years"

What sort of sad ignorant man/company prays for a recession. Does he not realise that jobs will be lost and families will suffer?

No doubt he is pleased with the terrible news from the USA. I'd like to give this guy a piece of my mind. :mad:

Flyin' High
20th Sep 2001, 02:21
Katoi... I take your point but taken in context Webster's comment is valid....

The airlines who will benefit from any economic downturn are the low cost carriers... the comment by Ray Webster could easily be applied to Ryanair, GO, Southwest.....

In business terms during a recession people want to save money ... but still travel.

There is always someone who can make the best from everyone elses misfortune.. it is a fact of life.. it will never change...

Every airline "prays" for the economic conditions to swing in their favour... the difference is that he low costs operators can hack the pace that other cant -

I dont hear you complaining about cheap flights at any other time!!!!!!!

[ 19 September 2001: Message edited by: Flyin' High ]

NorthernSky
20th Sep 2001, 12:07
I agree that Mr Webster's comments are unfortunate.

Crucially, though, the present circumstances will not benefit the 'low cost' ('cheap') sector.

Passengers who use these ailines generally include a significant number of business people who like a quick check-in and fairly lax enforcement of hand-baggage rules, and expect good schedule-keeping. Then, there are those passengers who grab the opportunity to have a quick, cheap, weekend away. The former will find the travel experience no longer efficient and will travel less often, the latter will decide that they'd rather not get on an aircraft if they can avoid it, and no matter how the cheap carriers try to woo them with unbelievable deals over the next few months, their initial feeling will prevail. Past recessions weren't triggered by airliners being used as weapons of war.

As for the crews, there will be an end to whatever recruitment problems there may have been, for those with sufficient capital to continue to expand, and also an end to career progression as a huge open market in experienced captains opens up. The notion that all 'low cost' airlines can 'hack the pace' is false.

Of course, their share options are now worth a fraction of expected values, and won't grow rapidly.

All in all, another very sad period looms for the commercial pilot.

The Guvnor
20th Sep 2001, 13:44
From today's ATWonline - looks like MO'L isn't too concerned about the present situation and seems very upbeat about the prospects for low cost operators. For what it's worth, I reckon he's spot on.

Ryanair said it is maintaining its earnings forecasts for both the current quarter and the full year to March 30. "While we remain cautious about the trading environment, we see no reason--at this time--to change the consensus range of analyst estimates for either the current quarter or this fiscal year," CEO Michael O'Leary said in a statement. "The immediate impact of last week's events upon Ryanair were limited," he added, saying the airline had cancelled only 16 of 1,800 flights over the past seven days. He said bookings overall last week were down only 10% despite a fall of 20% Wednesday and Thursday in the immediate aftermath of the terrorist attacks on the US. "Bookings have returned to normal levels and we would expect to recover last week's slippage over coming days with a number of seat promotions which we have planned," he said. Regarding the prospect of financial aid to a number of European flag carriers, O'Leary remained as combative and opposed as ever. "State aid to selected state airlines that were loss-making before last week's events cannot be justified by the impact of last week's events," he stated. He also confirmed Ryanair had written to the European Commission urging it not to alter its policy on state aid to flag carriers. If assistance is considered, "it should be applied equally to all airlines and all passengers by means of reducing passenger taxes or landing and passenger charges at European airports, rather than straight subsidies to inefficient and loss-making airlines," he said.

Flyin' High
21st Sep 2001, 01:29
NorthernSky.....

As far as I can see.. and I work with the passengers.. there has been little of no reaction to last week's events in terms of people not travelling...Load factors are pretty much unaffected ... but to be honest I do not know about future bookings.... but those people who have already bought tickets still want to fly.

At least in Europe, people are still very happy to fly, they are glad to see the security checks and for the moment do not complain (any more than usual!!! )

One thing which is clear is that the airlines are using the tragedy in the US as an excuse..... these job losses were on the cards they have possibly simply been pushed forward by a few months..... BA/AA/UAL and the like have been in trouble for some time and now is as good a time as any to cover up their inefficiencies and blame the losses on something outwith their control.

NorthernSky
21st Sep 2001, 02:02
Have you seen their share prices?

Don't you believe capitalisation is an issue for an expanding airline?

no sig
21st Sep 2001, 03:42
Katoi

I know the man and he is not insensitive to the events in the States, easyJet as whole was saddened. The statement must be taken in context of majors vs low cost.

Desk Driver
21st Sep 2001, 14:46
Oh Mr Webster all the tact of a Sledge Hammer! :mad:

I'm praying for an upturn so people can keep their jobs and livelyhoods. Even if it means the company coloured like a Baboons arse won't do so well!