Aer Lingus starts Dubai service from next March

[FlyingV]

From €199 each way incl taxes.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2005/1027/aerlingus.html

From the EI website



Aer Lingus Launches New Route to Dubai
Fares from €199 one-way including taxes and will be on sale at
www.aerlingus.com from 3rd November


Aer Lingus has today entered a new phase of its development with the announcement of a new non-stop service from Dublin to Dubai. Commencing March 2006, the service will operate three times a week and is expected to carry 70,000 passengers in the first year. This is the first time Aer Lingus has offered a long-haul destination outside of the USA and is the first step in the expansion of its new long-haul network.

Making the announcement, Aer Lingus Chief Executive Dermot Mannion said "This is a very positive step for the airline and demonstrates our commitment to the development of a low fares, long-haul strategy, embracing new routes with significant growth potential. Our twin track strategy encompasses both short-haul and long-haul routes, which provides us with a competitive edge, a unique offering and furthermore enhanced choice for our customers.

Dubai is recognised as the business centre of the Middle East. In addition it has seen a huge growth in tourism from the Irish market over the last 10 years. Dubai will also provide a unique growth opportunity for Irish tourism from new and existing markets. These factors give us confidence that this route will be a major success."

In addition to being an attractive location in its own right, Dubai is the leading hub in the Middle East for destinations such as Bangkok, Hong Kong and Sydney.

Dubai will be the fifth route in the Aer Lingus long-haul network along with New York, Boston, Chicago and Los Angeles. In all, Aer Lingus has announced sixteen new routes in 2005. The eight-hour non-stop flight of 3682 miles to Dubai International Airport will be serviced by three Airbus A330 aircraft.

[840]

This is the first time Aer Lingus has offered a long-haul destination outside of the USA and is the first step in the expansion of its new long-haul network.


I thought they used to fly to Montreal.

[DUBXH]

They did.... Kinda scary an Airline that doesnt know their geography....

[flyer55]

Whats Next Hongkong and Sydney?

[MarkD]

Given Mannion's pedigree destinations he is familiar with via EK (starting with DXB, obviously) are probably his priority?

The question is - what routes/frequencies are going to be cut to free up a 330 for DXB, or is World Airways going to be supplying MD-11s for the T/A?

[positive]

Orlando service is being cut from Jan 15th 2006 so a couple of these flights will surely be used for the new Dubai flights

[apaddyinuk]

Lets hope EI decide to beef up the service somewhat!!! I cant see the Dubai locals taking kindly to the EI way of doing things when they have become so accustomed to the likes of Emirates etc!

[EI321]

Presumably this is a run for EI-DAA.

[Flame]

"Lets hope EI decide to beef up the service somewhat!!!"

Beef it up somewhat..!!!! its crap at the moment, starting from scratch would be a better idea, and that goes for economy and what EI term "Premier"

[ryan2000]

Looks as if Aerlingus will not be in a position to take advantage of a relaxation of the bilateral.

There will be huge political pressure on them to maintain the current level of service at Shannon regardless of open skies. It looks as if they won't have the aircraft to expand to US out of Dublin so the advantage will lie with the US carriers who will have a major headstart on Aerlingus.

Another negative impact of the Shannon Stopover the Great Sacred Cow of Irish Politics.

Does anyone know what impact Open Skies may have on the Ireland Canada bilateral ?surely they won't maintain the stopover for Canadian flights if the US bilateral changes.

[EI-CFC]

With Gulf air operating a Dublin to Bahrain and onward connections from there (including Dubai), this seems a little like stepping on someone elses toes. Personally I thought it would have made sense to head off to somewhere they could connect with CX or QF and interline pax onwards. Maybe that's next....

Not sure there is a demand for 3 a week to Dubai from Ireland though! And they are up against some stiff competition (even with the nessecity to transfer at LHR etc!)

[FlyingV]

The RTE News report I linked to in the first post has now been updated with a new headline as above.

He'll borrow to buy 3 aircraft. After that, he needs actual money for further growth.

[akerosid]

It really is a very depressing situation for Aer Lingus. The airline stands on the edge of the most exciting period in its history. If Open Skies goes through, I don't think the govt will be able to do much to pressure or force them, BUT the govt will be doing all it can to fight for a competitive disadvantage, to keep the stopover going beyond the introduction of open skies. You have to step back and think about this; despite it being clear that the stopover doesn't actually help SNN and the anachronistic idea that you can somehow help growth in one place by holding it back in another, the govt is going to fight for this. It's going to argue that we in Ireland - the country which most needs open skies - should have a competitive disdvantage vis a vis EVERY OTHER COUNTRY IN EUROPE. We have to hope that the Americans hold their line and hold fast against the stopover.

As for Canada, you're right; this is unaffected. And what you think of the chances that Ireland will open talks with Canada? Rather fat, I'd say.

Against this background and with the unions angling for new national pay talks and an election due in 2007, how likely to you think it is that the Dear Leader will allow privatisation to go ahead?

[EI-WAT]

Orlando service is being cut from Jan 15th 2006 so a couple of these flights will surely be used for the new Dubai flights

The Orlando flight is continuing until the 25-Mar-2006 now

[Platinum206]

EI-WAT,

thats great news, however it is still not possible to book on the aerlingus.com website for orlando.

It still says this
"Aer Lingus operates from Oct 30 2005 - Jan 13 2006 on days Tue Thu Sat"

Any ideas on when it will be possible to book after these dates?
P206

[Idunno]

Akerosid, with Delta recently announcing capacity dumping on Irish routes the Shannon stop might be viewed (perversely) as a benefit to Aer Lingus. It stops the kind of free-for-all on US routes that only a company with a thousand aircraft and Chapter11 bankruptcy protection can win.

I'm in favour of it going, but I'm not as pessimistic as you that its crippling Aer Lingus as it stands. Its a double-edged sword.

[Bearcat]

Idunno...let the SNN stop over go. EI needs a good boot to react to competition. How? By needing modern aircraft like their competitors. If they had descent competition on the atlantic the IFS systems in the 330s would have been changed years ago. As much as I dislike MO'L I support his stance on competition. Monopolies, oligoplies are a thing of the past. AL is still lumbering in the past and is sunk back a lot in the last year.

Akerosid is spot on. It's depressing. Why? The government want no change to AL s status due to an impending election. Privatising AL is bumkin next year as the pension funds are a mess and the govt cant bail it out pre election. Likewise the govt must be seen to show its support in pushing of an easying out of the SNN stop over as against a sudden stop irrespective of the dramatic increase of business out of SNN thanks to LCCs.

AL are swopping Orlando for Dubai....big deal. There just stringing out the 330s and looking to bleed an extra load of hours out of crews in a roster period. This is just robbing peter to pay paul. There is a dire need to lease/ buy aircraft/ recruit/ expand. I fear we'll see again the old AL using the A330s like their old 747 100s...to a state of being clapped out. People today are very in tune with fleets are not interested in flying on old aircraft.

[Irish Steve]

The Orlando flight is continuing until the 25-Mar-2006 now

My daughter is booked DUB MCO in Jan, and they've been moved to an alternative flight for the return leg, and that's not been changed yet, so if it is still operating, they're not telling people what's happening:E

[Idunno]

Bearcat, I said I agree with the SNN stopover going in the long term (RTFQ) and I agree that ALTs 330's are becoming a disgrace (esp in the IFE area), but where is the money going to come from for a new fleet if privatisation is the sham you suggest?

Perhaps Mannion is under some kind of delusion, because on the day he announced Dubai he also told the media the company would be taken private before the election. Maybe you know something he doesn't? Is he THAT ignorant of the bigger national political picture? Perhaps he's another WW in the making!

The Shannon stop only affects ALTs TA services and I would contend that the future is not Westbound - but EAST.
If preserving the SNN stop keeps Delta from capacity dumping into Ireland, while ALT expands EAST with an improved Biz class service and new a/c - thats acceptable IMHO and a good medium term plan.

[MarkD]

I believe the privatisation is via share issue so the government won't recoup any money and if the unions decide to maintain the percentage of their shareholding they'll have to pony up dough too.

[akerosid]

I was actually thinking the exact same thing, Idunno; DM may well asking WW to keep an office free at the Waterside!

We all know Ahern's interest in aviation issues and frankly, I can't see any hope of privatisation taking place in 2006. Some excuse will be found; it doesn't matter what Cullen says or has said; the real power rests with Ahern and he wouldn't think twice about stuffing Aer Lingus as long as his political interests are protected; you can see that quite clearly in the whole Open Skies thing. IF (and thankfully, it's a "if" too far) the govt could get away with extending the stopover for another two years at least, it would, regardless of whether it put EI at a competitive disadvantage vis a vis every other European airline.

I am, however, concerned about Aer Lingus going east if it isn't prepared to invest. It's all very well to say that you are going to focus on the lower end of the market, but if the airline gets a reputation for poor service, bad IFE and moody cabin crew (and unfortunately, it is starting to take hold), it might as well stick to US routes. If it's interested in making this a good revenue earner, particularly "up front", it has to show some interest in providing a good standard of airline quality.

[ryan2000]

Much of the blame for the stopover continuing must rest with the Americans .They have tolerated it for far too long. It would have been gone years ago if they retaliated by insisting that 50% of Irish flights must serve Bangor Maine or Providence Rhode Island.

I can't imagine them tolerating it from any other european country. I wouldn't be surprised if the Irish American lobby in Washington succeed in retaining it for another few years though I suspect that the Irish Government want rid of it this time and will be happy to blame Brussells and Washington.

[akerosid]

I've often thought that, but at the end of the day, once you start blaming others, you can go on and on. Ultimately, while I think US carriers could have presented an ultimatum to the Irish govt, the buck has to stop in Merrion St. If the interest isn't there, there's no point looking elsewhere. Yes, as a fix to solve the upcoming Open Skies thing, we can rely on the Americans and hope they say "no", but what if they don't. Is it then "their" fault? No; we have to take an interest in furthering our best interests and unfortunately, on the aviation side, we've never done that.

The core issue is that Ireland is, despite all its economic growth in recent years, a peripheral and small island. Any sane and responsible approach to transport policy would recognise the value of air transport as a key to challenging that; sadly, as we're seeing, the biggest single obstacle to that is not the EU, the US or any of EI's competitors; it's our own government - and for specious and shortsighted economic reasons which will not only hold us back, but won't (and have been proven not to) help the area they were designed to help. Unfortunately, you can go blue in the face trying to tell them this, but the interest isn't there. Until we have a government - and a leadership prepared to take the long view, not see aviation in isolation, nor as a hostage to other politicial scheming, it won't be able to serve our interests.

We've got to keep banging away at this; unfortunately (and without wishing to pass blame elsewhere), one of my experiences - having set up an aviation lobby group - is not just that it's very difficult to get media interest in the issues, but often some of those who should be fighting for a responsible policy - IBEC, Chambers of Commerce (particularly Dublin) and even IALPA - have been less than forthcoming in support. It's not publicity for the lobby itself, but if those with common interests don't come together and fight for those interests and stay silent when they are threatened, then frankly, they get what they deserve. What did the Chambers of Commerce say about the whole Open Skies fiasco? What member of the media took up the point that we are actually relying on the Americans to resist OUR government's efforts to fight for a competitive disadvantage. So, let's start getting the message across ...

To borrow (and amend slightly) our Dear Leader's words; very little done and a hell of a lot left to do ...

[Idunno]

The biggest obstacle to the flotation is not just political backpedalling by Bertie, there is a fiscal difficulty in the General Pension Scheme (this does not apply to the pilots, who are in a different scheme).

The General Scheme is 336 Million euros in deficit and this must be sorted before due diligence can be passed on the way to a flotation.

The company is probably worth between 400M and 800M on the market. Depending on how big a stake the State is prepared to sell. If they sell 50%, and a further 14% goes to Staff, they might stand to raise only 145M - 290M, not enough to even cover the pension deficit, and cash injections will also be subject to EU approval.

They might sell the whole thing, lock stock and barrel, but even then the take will not leave a huge pot of gold - a maximum of maybe 300M after the pension issue is cleared.

That won't buy many A330s.

[840]

Is the route going to carry freight or will it be passengers only like the short-haul operation?

If it is carrying freight, how will it be affected by Singapore Airlines Cargo announcing extra capacity between Dublin and Dubai?

[akerosid]

Without knowing for certain yet, I'd be very surprised if EI wasn't carrying cargo. As for SQ, I presume it's just using DXB as an route stop to SIN and feeding into its hub there; if EI is feeding into EK's network, then it will have as large (if not a significantly larger) network to feed into at DXB.

We should know the schedule and details of EI's flights tomorrow, when they go on sale. Hopefully, flights will be timed to feed into/out of EK's hub there. This is possible, but we'll see how it pans out.

Instead of departing the same evening (or early morning), EI could stay overnight, leaving at about 8am and still get back here (by c.1pm), still in time to operate one of the later t/a departures from DUB.

Incidentally, have also heard rumours that QR is interested in DUB. Acft shortage (like EI!) is a key obstacle however, but at least it has acft on order.

[840]

The service starts March 28th.

Departure from Dublin is 11:00, arriving in Dubai at 21:30 (Tu/Th/Sa).

Return at 00:10, arriving in Dublin at 05:20 (We/Fri/Su)