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24th Jul 2000, 18:53
Monday July 24, 2:00 am Eastern Time

Company Press Release

SOURCE: Teal Group

Teal Group Predicts 9,206 Rotorcraft Worth $74.5 Billion Will Be Built Worldwide in the 2000-2009 Period

FARNBOROUGH, England, July 24 /PRNewswire/ -- Some 9,206 rotorcraft with a value of $74.5 billion are expected to be built throughout the world in the 2000-2009 period, predict Teal Group analysts in their latest world rotorcraft forecast released today at the Farnborough 2000 Air Show in Farnborough, England. This includes 4,712 machines for civil users, worth $12.3 billion, and 4,494 military machines worth $62.2 billion (all in 2000 US dollars).

These numbers represent a great improvement over the previous ten years (i.e., 1990-1999), when production totaled 8,229 machines worth $51.3 billion, comprising $41 billion military market and $10.3 billion civil market machines. (Again, these figures are all in 2000 US dollars.)

In their new forecast, Teal analysts provide a comprehensive look at the players and markets in the world rotorcraft industry, covering all turbine- powered machines, including helicopters and tilt-rotors. Their numbers cover all models built in the Western world, while their analysis also focuses on Chinese, East European and ex-Soviet models that compete with the Western designs.

"There are now five big rotorcraft prime contractors (or there will be, when the Agusta/Westland merger is finally cemented)'', said Richard Aboulafia, lead analyst for Teal Group's "World Military and Civil Aircraft Briefing,'' the 1,100-page, monthly updated competitive intelligence service, in which this and 10 other consolidated forecasts plus 156 separate aircraft program reports are published and regularly updated.

For more information email:[email protected].

"The others, of course, are Bell, Boeing, Eurocopter and Sikorsky,'' said Aboulafia. "Together with Agusta-Westland, these five major primes will hold 92 percent of the world rotorcraft market during our forecast period.''

"Further industrial consolidation would be an excellent idea,'' said Aboulafia. "But European techno-nationalism and overzealous US regulators basically rule out any further serious consolidations for now, no matter how useful and necessary.''

For example, a combined Agusta/Bell/Westland entity would have the largest helicopter market share in the coming ten years--over 30 percent, according to Teal analysts. "The prospect of this happening is undoubtedly hastening talks between Sikorsky and Boeing,'' said Aboulafia. "The two companies would fit very nicely together, and form a helicopter powerhouse. Most likely, Sikorsky parent United Technologies Corporation (UTC) would be the buyer, which would give Boeing corporate some badly needed cash to compete in its core market, jetliners.

"But in the current political climate, this simply won't happen.''

The Teal Group is an aerospace and defense market analysis firm based in Fairfax, Virginia, USA. It provides competitive intelligence to industry and government.

SOURCE: Teal Group