Will avian flu affect aviation industry?

[Tacitus]

First of all I don’t know if this is the right forum to mention something like this. But is there any possibility avian flu to have a negative affect on aviation industry and if yes how bad is going to be ?

[Wing Commander Fowler]

Our aircraft are regularly innoculated against such pestilence.....
:p

[cwatters]

It will probably have little effect on air travel until it mutates into a form that can spread human to human. Then it probably won't matter what occupation we are talking about.

In February this year the WHO reported "55 confirmed cases of bird flu in humans, and 42 deaths". I think the figures are now around 100 cases and 60 deaths. That's quite a high mortality rate. Lets hope it's not that bad. The mortality rate in 1918 was only 2%

The worry is that it's already been detected in pigs and they can also catch the human form - providing a great oportunity for the two viruses to swap genes.

[Bradley Marsh]

Many countries already have pandemic preparedness plans in place and most will start with closing all ports, stopping travel etc.

Unfortunately, given the time of 2-10 days that you can be infecting other people before you show any symptoms, it will be way too late to try and stop it spreading that way.

In answer to the original question:
SARS was a puppy compared to H5N1 and it's pandemic potential. If we have a H5N1 pandemic expect to see a lot of pilots (and others) sitting around twiddling their thumbs.

[Lars Torders]

Any Outbreak will shut down the airline industry. Havn't seen the latest mortality rates but if it as up to 60% that is a Level IV biohazard if it is airbourne. Only things like ebola are worse, but because of there incubation period and fatalty rate they are relatively easily contained. We all saw what happened in asia with SARS. If this becomes comunicable through humans it could be muchworse.

[captplaystation]

Excuse my language, but from what I have read ,and,as is widely expected, this mutates and goes" human/human transmission"we are all f*ck*d;government dithering/scepticism/bueracracy will be partly to blame;but,as history adequately shows, nature has this annoying habit of throwing us a wide ball no matter how clever we "believe" we are.From what I have read ,"bloody worrying"is a gross understatement,Romania&Turkey are a bit close for my liking.

[Leodis]

"Will it have a negative effect on the aviation industry?"

In a word

YES.

If the problem gets out of hand, the only way to prevent ferther spread is to close our borders. This simply wont ever happen.

[goodgirl]

leodis... spot on

[sevenforeseven]

Oh please do not forget that the very few Americans that have a "passport" and have heard of H5N1 will stop flying.

[HZ123]

So reassuring to know that we in the UK are in a high state of readyness to combat this condition.

[effortless]

Well I'm a bit worried. I was supposed to have gone for a flip the other day but when we started up our poor little Slingsby had a nasty cough. I hope that it doen't turn into flue.:{

[cwatters]

In the absence of a vaccine many Governments have ordered large quantities of antiviral drugs (typically enough for emergency workers and those deemed "at risk" like the elderly)...but I read that most of these orders are for delivery in 2007 - they can't be filled any faster. If it got started in humans now it could be global in less than three months. This is one reason why the fight against the animal version is so important - it buys time to prepare.

[PPRuNe Towers]

The curve ball might already be out there.

There's a dog flu rippling through the States that has already species hopped once to the CDC's knowledge. The mortality rate seems to be causing wrinkled brows. Although only assessed at 5% at the moment they are still theorising over why so many prime of life hounds are dying. Misdiagnosis initially as kennel fever might answer that but they are not certain. It is however virulent and the closeness of our lives to dogs compared to birds seems to be a significant concern.

Regards from inside my Drager,
Rob

[Iso]

Perhaps pilots of the world's airlines should all take a unilateral pre-emptive sickout and head this chicken off at the pass. Just a thought!

[The SSK]

I think that the accepted 'wisdom' is that an aeroplane flying nine hours or more from the Far East to Europe or the USA is the ideal environment for transmitting a virus.

At its height in mid 2003 SARS knocked out something like 40% of all passenger traffic between Europe and the Far East, an impact completely out of proportion to the seriousness of the epidemic.

[Faire d'income]

No doubt the politicians and fame seeking scientists will restrict travel to quell the spread of the virus. Of course this will be hopelessy futile as the virus is mainly spread by migrating birds. How will they ground them?

This will either happen or it won't, cést la vie.

[Arkroyal]

I think the figures are now around 100 cases and 60 deaths That's quite a high mortality rate. You are joking, right?

60 dead out of 2 billion?

I'd just love to know what the government are hoping to 'slip out' under the cover of the mass panic they are attempting to cause.