QR to TXL the right choice?

[popay]

A 300-2005,
Here is the question for you. Do you think the decision to launch the flight to Berlin by QR was such a good idea? The reason for my question is that TXL as destination was never really a hit. Although since the unification of the country, one would think a capital is supposed to be an interesting destination, but the historical background shows, that TXL hasn’t developed to a mayor hub with significant traffic. As an example LH has chosen FRA and MUC to be the mayor hubs and all the other big members of star alliance fly to FRA or MUC and LH takes then the PAX to TXL. I would think that EK has done the right choice by selecting DUS as a third destination in Germany. Its capital of NRW with big potential, gross income and one of the densest populations in Germany. I don’t know whether it was a conscious choice or simple a consensus between two governments. Would like to know your opinion.
Cheers.

[boiler]

Interesting topic. Maybe this could help explain also why they are using an A321 on this route instead of an A330. I think it can be very difficult making money on such a route at the begining esp. with the high fuel prices. But if QR is offering very low fares, it could stimulate demand as some of the LCC have.

[A300Man-2005]

Hi Popay,

I think initially they will be using an A319LR, which has a fairly small capacity.

Could be a good idea and quite a nice niche route, as Berlin is not served at all from the Middle East, IIRC.

Really not sure what traffic figures they expect from Berlin, but nice to see them trying something quite different from EK for once, by selecting TXL over DUS as their third German destination. It's obviously too early to say, but I imagine that using a two class AB6 (which is the eventual plan for TXL) is possibly a bit of overkill, to be honest on the TXL route.

On a separate subject, what are the loads currently like to and from VIE? That is another destination which I always felt was quite a bizarre one for QR. I note lately that they are using an A320 on the route on certain days - is that due to load factors, or non-availability of the A319?

Regards,
A300Man

[popay]

Boilermaker,
it’s always a lost business initially to start a new route. They will have to fly at least 1 year to see the tendency. Low fares are for sure a good stimulus and necessary to enter the market, but QR has got different concept from European LCC. LCC in Europe are explicitly offering so-called point to point connection, in other words soaking pax. away from mayor careers (high fares) and the pax, who would otherwise use alternate transport tools like train, car and so on. QR, EK, EY, they are trying to be low cost long haul careers and that is, I suppose, is a bit more complicated. ME companies have to compete with other mayor careers on the long haul routes offering direct connections to south east and far east (upcoming tourist destinations due to political instability), having the same advantage (low labour costs like Thai or Malaysian or Philippines) and the differences in fares will not differ very much after getting established on the market. Besides that most of the airlines optimize their revenue and costs by joining alliances, star alliance, one world etc. Another pillar of money generator like Indian market is getting more independently and offering in couple of years for sure competitive long haul service e.g. UK and India, like jet airways. A very big market with a lot of ethnic traffic, who are very price sensitive.
A300Man-2005,
I have done some research and here are the figures as an example for the months Jan. until July, total traffic movements acc. to the ranking FRA-278.582, MUC-222.888, DUS-108.762, TXL-79.155 where as the pax amount dep/arr. FRA-29.536.547, MUC 16.053.359, DUS-8.646.744, TXL-6.547.923. The figure indicating dep/arr. outside the Europe, which is obviously interesting for us, as follow FRA-11.634.438, MUC-2.302.949, DUS-818.120, TXL-117.978. As you can see, the figures show that DUS is number 3. It’s nice to try to do something on our own; hopefully we will be successful with that. The annual research for the market costs about 20000 EUR, why not to do the same like EK, saving the research costs and do it better. We do it on other routes anyway, don’t we? Wide body A 300 for TXL 4 times a week will be a loss business, as far as me concerns, A 319 is more appropriate. However, coming back to the concept of long haul LCC, I understand QR wants to get rid of narrow bodies and operate only wide bodies, like EK. That’s why, I think TXL, unlike DUS, hasn’t got a potential for a daily wide body service.
I haven’t seen the figures for VIE, but I would expect VIE to have good potential.
Cheers.

[LIBYA_LION]

I see you have moved into the management now at QR, Mr Popay? or is it that you are trying to get the deputy Chief Pilot position that is open for grabs on the A-330 fleet? Good luck to you.