Officer's flying weather...

[Two's in]

Fort Lauderdale this evening, compliments of Katrina,

KFLL 252210Z 252218 03045G65KT 5SM -RA OVC009
FM0000 09060G75KT 1SM +RA SQ OVC008
FM0300 14040G55KT 2SM +RA SQ SCT008 OVC015
FM0600 18035G45KT 2SM +RA SQ SCT008 OVC015

[opso]

Hmmmm... 75kts... clag at 800'... 1 mile vis. We just call that "Summer" in UK!

[Wycombe]

....or any time of the year in a certain Southerly location

[SASless]

Drop the temp to just above freezing....just another day out of the Shetlands in the Ninian Field.....or night.:{

[maxburner]

Not unlike a typical day at Warton, with 75ts and rain. The BAE callsign for Warton is Tarnish. Now you know why!

[DaveyBoy]

It isn't that bad, Two's... the vis and cloudbase are quite generous and even the gust speed shouldn't be a stopper for most of us as it's straight down the strip for 09L. It's the windshear I'd be wary of.

[Two's in]

You're quite right DB, it isn't that bad. I was actually trying to illustrate why you might leave those green and pleasant lands and move here, if only for the weather. I still think 50 Knot fog at RAF Brawdy is one of the great wonders of the world...

[DaveyBoy]

Is Katrina predicted to swing North and hit the panhandle (/LA/MS/AL) or have you guys seen the last of her?

[Two's in]

It turns out that the Panhandle is indeed a Hurricane magnet and yup, Katrina is due to do some urban renewal around the Fort Walton Beach area on Monday, having had a couple of days R&R the the Gulf of Mexico on the way up there.


Track shown here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/150802.shtml?3day

[Devil's Aardvark 8]

Anyone remember what a certain gust of wind did to Homested AB near Miami. Rum Punch was never the same again. Not that it ever will be again since the bean counters canned it. Happy days.

[DME MILOS]

I hope Katrina gives Destin a miss, some of the best bars and memories in Fl ! Just wouldn't be the same without AJ's and KJ's :D

[Lima Juliet]

Gusting 75 kts? You have a women's weather! Try the good old South Atlantic!

LJ

PS If the Colonial's built their houses out of brick instead of wood and stopped living in trailers (we call them caravans) then they might fare better in gusts of 75kts. Haven't you ever heard the 3 little pigs story or did you turf us out of Americania before it was written???

PPS Apologies to those that may have lost loved ones in this storm - this is an aircrew banter forum.:E

[Two's in]

Looks like the bars in Destin are safe for now (“safe” being a relative term after Ivan last year and Dennis this year) as Katrina seems to have taken a hankering for the fleshpots and gambling of New Orleans (or N'arlins as they say round here). Lot's of media hyperbole about how big she gets, but a Category 4 is likely and that's not going to be fun for a town that's already built in part below sea level. They have until monday to leave town, "hunker " down, or blow up the water wings.

LJ does have a valid point - when you see the CNN newsreel of death and destruction it is largely centered on Trailer Parks and Prefabricated homes. Don't know about Louisiana, but in Florida, this is how wrinklies of modest means can afford to retire here and leave the wintry wastelands of the North behind. Cheap they are, robust they are not. There are new building codes, but a caravan, is a caravan, is a caravan. Bernoulli was able to shed some light on what might happen when you pass a 100mph plus airflow over a surface perpendicular to that airflow.

To add to LJ's disparaging remark, a Hurricane moves on average at about 10-15 Knots over the ocean. It usually starts way off the eastern caribbean as a Tropical Depression, then a Storm, and finally a Hurricane. It is tracked hundreds of miles every step of the way by some of the most sophisticated weather monitoring equipment anywhere. It's progress is tracked, predicted, and hypothesised upon by the media to the point of numbness in the average viewer. Every phone book, sunday paper, local attractions guide has a "Hurricane Preparedness" section included.

So tell me again; how were you "caught out" by a Hurricane..?

[Blacksheep]

So tell me again; how were you "caught out" by a Hurricane..?In UK, its when the weather man (Michael Fish) tells us its going to be a bit windy but fails to mention how windy...

[buoy15]

Aardvark

Hurricane Andrew was recorded at 220 mph at it's peak

I was there pre and post 92 at Homestead AFB (South Miami)where it did the most damage

Most of the county was flattened - majority of low level brick buildings survived - fortunately the Mutineer Bar

The base has been rebuilt for weekend training for civvy pilots who fly as reservists on F16's, and is now 5 acres, where previously it was 25; sadly the golf course (Falcon Fairways) is now a park for the locals

The only hill in Florida is now on the coast at the end of the Old Colonial Road; that's where they dumped all the aftermath of the hurricane

There has been a mega new build to replace most of the trailer parks and what was considered to be "lo life" housing

The place has changed dramatically, but downtown Homestead is as quaint as ever

Still worth a visit, only 135m from Key West- Oh Joy!

[Two's in]

It's really not looking good for New Orleans - already a CAT 5, that is sustained winds at 160mph or higher.

Good idea of the scale of this thing here, ie. bigger than most States:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

From NBC:

I’ve been here 33 years, and we’ve always been concerned about New Orleans,” said National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield. “I had to let the mayor know that this storm has the potential not only to cause large property damage, but large loss of life if people don’t make the right decision.”

Mayfield said Katrina could be a disaster for New Orleans because the bowl-like city sits below sea-level and is dependent on levees and pumps to keep the water out.

“You could very well be looking at a storm surge of 15 to 20 feet, possible 25 feet,” he said. “If that water breaches the levees it will take forever to drain it back out.

[Two's in]

Latest TAF for New Orleans...

KMSY 281720Z 281818 08020G25KT P6SM SCT030 BKN200
FM0300 02080G110KT 1/4SM +RA OVC003

[Warped Factor]

NEW ORLEANS TAF today...

TEMPO 0509 VRB100G120KT 1600 +FC TSRA BR SCT005 OVC010CB BECMG 0709 VRB115G130KT 0400 +TSRAGR BR SCT005 OVC010CB BECMG 1214 120145G175KT 0100 +SHRA BR SCT005 OVC010 FM1500 VRB06KT 9999 SCT300 QNH2668INS FM1630 270140G160KT 0100 +TSRA BR SCT005 OVC010CB BECMG 1820 270115G135KT 0600 +TSRA BR SCT005 OVC010CB BECMG 2022 270100G120KT 0800 +TSRA BR SCT010 BKN025CB OVC180 QNH2689INS BECMG 2200 28085G100KT 1600 TSRA BR SCT010 BKN025CB QNH2692INS T24/11Z T34/20Z

WF.

[Lima Juliet]

OK the wx is getting very bad now and I guess brick-builds wouldn't stop this - humble pie being eaten :uhoh:

LJ

[Farmer 1]

For all those who do not understand TAFs, I will translate Warped Factor's post for you:

Take a ruler and measure the length of the TAF.

If its length is two inches or less (in old money), you have no problem.

Two to four inches - OK, but take reasonable precautions.

If it is from half to a full line in length, then a delay in take-off might be advisable.

A length of two lines - whatever you do, do not commit aviation today.

Three lines - retire immediately to a safe place.

More than three lines? Don't be ridiculous!

Farmer.

P.S. The length of lines on this page is much longer than on an A4 page. I am talking about A4 here, so I reckon that TAF was originally considerably more than three and a half lines in length.

[MightyGem]

TEMPO 0509 VRB100G120KT 1600 +FC TSRA BR SCT005 OVC010CB BECMG 0709 VRB115G130KT 0400 +TSRAGR BR SCT005 OVC010CB BECMG 1214 120145G175KT 0100 +SHRA BR SCT005 OVC010 FM1500 VRB06KT 9999 SCT300 QNH2668INS FM1630 270140G160KT 0100 +TSRA BR SCT005 OVC010CB BECMG 1820 270115G135KT 0600 +TSRA BR SCT005 OVC010CB BECMG 2022 270100G120KT 0800 +TSRA BR SCT010 BKN025CB OVC180 QNH2689INS BECMG 2200 28085G100KT 1600 TSRA BR SCT010 BKN025CB QNH2692INS T24/11Z T34/20Z
Wouldn't it have been easier to just put:
KMSY 290024 Cat5 Hurricane.

[Farmer 1]

Wouldn't it have been easier to just put: KMSY 290024 Cat5 Hurricane. Yes, obviously. But for those of us who measure our weather forecasts with a ruler, it could have been catastrophic.

[Two's in]

KMSY now open for humanitarian aid flights only - Generator run USAF installed airfield services, as still no power. Most of you will have seen first 2 days of SAR carried out almost exclusively by USCG, then joined by National Guard Hueys. More "joined up" SAR today, but still people trapped after 4 days. Thank God for professional aviators. As for the City and State Government, a bit like Barnum and Bailey, but more clowns and not as many tents.

Apparently, the Official Hurricane Preparedness guide for New Orleans was:

1) Be affluent
2) Own a car
3) Get out before the poor people spot you

[MightyGem]

Yes, obviously. But for those of us who measure our weather forecasts with a ruler, it could have been catastrophic.
Sorry Farmer, I forgot about those who can't read. :ok:

[Unmissable]

Just returned from a holiday abroad (in Europe!) and seen the news. Whilst being genuinely sorry for those who are struggling, I can't help thinking that Bush has missed an opportunity.

We (and Bush, no doubt) have long since realised that 75% of New Orleans (and Southern Louisiana) is full of dirty, anarchic criminals who welcome the opportunity for 'free enterprise!!'. However, not wishing to upset the local tribes, the Government agencies throughout the ages (a few years in US terms) have only nibbled away at the problem, with constant claims that the right to hold firearms to protect ones property is reasonable.

Suddenly the opportunity to send in several thousand troops to 'clean up' a city, whilst looking as though on a humanitarian mission occurs!!

You fool Bush!!! You are now being criticised (quite rightly) for failing to help, yet you could have had your cake and eat it if you had marched in the military disguised as humanitarian helpers. Thus creating great press as a saviour whilst getting rid of a wholly unpalatable element of US society.

Just proves that you are too thick to be a president!