Thoughts on Aer Lingus fleet/route planning?

[akerosid]

Recently (before the revelations about the reprehensible EI HR discussion document), we had some discussion about EI fleet and route intentions and I'd just like to take that discussion a bit further.

Clearly, before any route expansion can take place on long haul routes, even before EI decides whether it wants to be a low cost or "normal" long haul carrier, crew morale issues will need to be sorted out and this needs to be done very pro-actively. This needs to be DM's No1 priority.

Without wishing to go into that issue at length and moving on to Stage 2, what are the challenges ahead?

As I see it, Aer Lingus has about four potential markets: the US, Canada, South Africa and Asia. Let's have a quick run through them.
- The US. Clearly the biggest, with very considerable potential. However, the EU/US are still talking. The government has acknowledged, however, that there is "wriggle room", but either the Americans aren't willing to talk or the govt is content to wait. Either way, not much happening there.

- Canada. Closed door to EI. Unrealistic bilateral, with no intention on the Irish side to change it. As long as this goes on, no go there.

- South Africa. Mentioned recently on another thread. No info other than what I've seen there.

- Asia. Mentioned by Dermot Mannion as a potential new market. Trouble here: runway length at DUB, competition from M/E carriers with far better networks, name recognition and service product.

As for the fleet, we've seen rumours about an ex-LX/SR A332 and QF A332s. Neither, unfortunately seems to be happening. In the long term, all the rumours I've heard surround the 777/787; I've heard very little evidence of interest in the A330. Of course, there may be an element of not letting Airbus think they have EI "in the bag", but even still, with Boeing now in the ascendent, Airbus has a big job ahead of it and with privatisation on the horizon, I doubt if the govt will want to use political pressure in Airbus's favour.

I think the biggest concern is the N/Atlantic issue. The danger is that EI just doesn't know when the rule will change; there's no apparent interest in this at govt level and given their record, we have to assume that this is the case. Suitable widebodied aircraft are extremely difficult to come by and if EI gets new rights without suitable aircraft, other European (and indeed, US carriers) can make life very difficult for it. Much better for the govt to act now and smooth the path for EI to grow on T/A flights, but does it have the backbone to stand up the SNN lobby? Doubtful.

Please share your thoughts, insights, views on this!

[Tom the Tenor]

How does the Canadian bilateral treaty differ with the one from the United States? Yes, it is kind of weird now to remember the Aer Lingus Boeing 707 scheduled service to Montreal and now no EI presence of any kind in Canada leaving it all to the summer flights of Air Canada's scheduled service and the Air Transat charters.

Air Canda has the high gross weight version of the A319 which they fly to cities in Colombia and Vezezuela so there should not be any problem with flying them from Toronto, Halifax or even St Johns, Newfoundland, with it's big Irish community, eastwards to Ireland on a limited year round basis even in winter on a two or three flights weekly frequency.

In the same way as the Air Canada narrow bodies doing some longhauls to South America would there be any case for a tiny fleet of new Boeing 737-900ERs for Aer Lingus to launch potential new routes to US East coast cities like Philadelphia and in time to some of the Atlantic coast cities of Canada?

As for Asia and South Africa, Cape Town and a big Chinese city like Shanghai would surely be a winner, twice weekly at a max to both cities. The best bet would be Boeing 777-200ERs if the Dublin runway can accomodate such a feat.

That 'R' word again! This all comes back to the massive crushing negative influence Shannon and it's lobby has had in Irish aviation and it still goes on and on. Weak governments and weak airports that have no guts to bring a change to this continuing farce.

[MarkD]

Tom - YYT and YHZ might be in range from DUB/SNN with a heavy 319 but would have serious doubts about YYZ or YUL. AFAIK it would be beyond current AC A319s ops and as with all TAs have serious westbound headwind issues. Add to that - I'm not sure whether AC maintain 319s to 120min ETOPS - anyone know better?

[Clipper One]

The ME will be interesting, Gulfair will be shaking up the market and how will Dermot respond? I'm sure he was looking to do a similar thing Emirates. Fly to UAE and then feed into Emirates network. Will he still do this or will he go to SIN instead or as well?

For Sydney with Gulfair,

The flight will leave DUB at 08:30 and arr BAH at 19:05
The flight will leave BAH at 20:00 and arr SYD at 20:45 next day.

Isn't that turnaround at BAH too short??

[akerosid]

Actually, I always saw any EK plan to fly to DXB as a means to stop EK coming to Dublin. If EK were to come into DUB, it would be far more aggressive than GF (given the size of its network - and its shopping list) in growing the market.

EI doesn't have the marketing prowess, the name of the service product to compete with EK, so - if it wants to keep them out - fly to DXB - and not necessarily to feed into EK's network there. Whether EK would be put off by EI or GF I don't know, but if I were DM, I'd want to keep EK out of DUB for as long as possible.

As for SIN, can it be done with a 332? Perhaps out, but what about back, against headwinds and low FLs over India? I doubt it. The 777 can't do it economically out of DUB. Personally, I think the most likely Asian route for EI is HKG - far more central geographically and feeding into CX hub.

[akerosid]

Just saw in this morning's Sunday Times that the EU and US sides are supposed to have a meeting in September to try and get the whole Open Skies thing back on track. Plan is to have a meeting in October. Some say a deal could be done by year end, but there seems to be too much to be done to make that a reality.

As far as Ireland is concerned, it's a fairly straightforward affair: more US access and no more stopover, but the key obstacle is LHR and that will prove much more difficult to solve.

As stated above (and from a quote by the minister), there is wriggle room; the govt can do a mini-deal with the US to correct competitive disadvantages in the current Irish bilateral, but there doesn't seem to be any intention of doing so. The problem for the govt is that if it has plans to privatise EI, which of course it does, then the longer it waits, the more difficult things will become. Trying to privatise EI without the whole North Atlantic access business sorted out (US definitely, but preferably Canada as well) is foolish.

The problem, as mentioned above, is that in the absence of any certainty, it becomes incredibly difficult to plan for fleet additions. The big problem with the govt's continuing unwillingness to assist in this matter is that the most desirable aircraft - A332s and 777s - are very difficult to come by; if the airline could just be given a date (say April 2006) when it might be allowed to add new US markets. The irony is that the failure to face this issue head on is going to lower the value of Aer Lingus and what the govt is going to get for its shareholding.

[840]

Would any routes to the Caribean work for Aer Lingus? Say 2x weekly to each of Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad. It could have good tourism potential and the routes could also feed Aer Lingus' European and UK network from Dublin [assuming they're stil interested in that kind of thing]. As I understand it passengers from these countries are still pretty much forced through London when they want to go to other destinations in Europe.

[akerosid]

It's certainly something they could look at, especially now that they have sorted out the cost base on long haul flights (hopefully saving the MCO flights). However, I recall that when either JM or BW were looking at flights to Ireland (around the time they started serving BFS), they were stymied by the Shannon stop policy. I think this applies to all t/a flights.

So, another potential avenue of growth successfully thwarted at govt level. This is one of the key issues to be faced: the same people who apparently want EI to be privatised are also the single greatest obstacles to a successful privatisation.

[MarkD]

EI could look at St. Maarten and Martinique - intra EU flights! :D :ok:

[akerosid]

Interesting point Mark! That would certainly irritate the obstructionists in Kildare Street! ;) :ok:

[akerosid]

Any more news on potential new routes or aircraft? South Africa? A330-200s?

[MarkD]

akerosid

would be nice to see the shamrock hanging over the beach at St. Maarten like photos one sees of AF/KL 744s/340s and such :D

As for other EU flights - there's St. Pierre et Miquelon off Newfoundland but that's not as attractive weather wise :E

[transatlantic.ei]

aer lingus will soon announce new long haul routes... dubai being the first, followed by hong kong, shanghai,cape town and san jose (cal)...the talk at the moment is 777s as a medium term messure untill 787s are available.
I know this sounds a little far fetched but wait and see!!!!

[Silver Tongued Cavalier]

Dubai has been judged to be profitable by cargo volume alone (when linking up with Emirates Skycargo) on the A330. Would break the Singapore B747F Ireland-Far East monopoly. Any Pax would be all profit. Ireland-Australia One stop service! Not to mention Emirates connections to New Zealand/ Far East and the Indian Sub-continent. Dubai is a fantastic , growing wintersun/shopping destination, and will be very popular with Irish families and travel agents.

Hong Kong/Shanghai - large and growing Chinese community in Ireland now. Oneworld linkup with Cathay/Qantas to Australia. Too far for a full payload A330-200 though. Would need a 777-200ER. Low fares would get many Chinese/Tourist transfer traffic from around Europe!!

Cape Town - shortage of capacity Europe to Cape Town so will do well with Transfer traffic. LTU currently fly it charter A330-200 and is packed. Irish Travel agents very keen on CPT.

San Jose - Been planned for a very long time now and EI knows its US market well.

777 first then 787, is needed if the Far East is to be done properly, however will be expensive unless Boeing gives a great deal. Introducing more 2nd hand/leased A330-200's/ A340-300's would be much more cost effective to the Airline while waiting for the A350 which would be PERFECT for EI!!!!!!

Heard the Orlando route is doing very well. Besides, seasonal Toronto/Vancouver/Newark could easily work out for EI too.

But for all this you need Aircraft and Pilots! Both of which EI has no surplus, thanks to years of Willie Walsh crying wolf to the Unions to lower the cost base, and to devalue the potential of the Airline in his failed attempt to buy it cheap!!!!!!

A 5 year plan at the very least!!!

[Tom the Tenor]

Well, if EI are to use some 777s for those exotic long haul flights to Dubai, China and Hong Kong etc why not tease out Boeing just a little bit more and order one or two new build 767-200ER or 767-300ER for new transatlantic flights ex Cork? That is, if the stopover does ever go - I am not holding my breath for too long on that though whilst the stopover farce is allowed to continue. :rolleyes:

[WHBM]

Ah, this topic is up again.

I thought the idea was to make EI a strong, profitable airline.

Transatlantic - well, the obvious points are New York, Boston, Chicago, etc - in other words what they have done for years. Stick to the knitting.

Toronto - fine for 5 months of the year if you only want to sell Y class tickets (ie what Air Transat do when they're in the lull season for Canadian trips down to the Caribbean). Precious little business traffic from Dublin to Toronto, or indeed anything in February.

Orlando - sure, a good point for Y class a few times a week. But what do you do with the C class cabin (apart from give it away).

Dubai - you'll be trounced by EK.

Transfer traffic in Dublin and elimination of the Shannon restrictions. Well some things are just politically too difficult, and if DAA continue to mismanage the airport and provide a layout totally unsuited to transfers, or Shannon-leaning politicians dominate the government thinking, don't waste time on it. Move on.

The A330s. It's a modern, still-selling aircraft. Yes they are tired inside, you fix that with a $10m refit not a $200m new aircraft. You need to refurbish the insides periodically (look at what BA is currently doing to their 767s). They're good for another 10-15 years yet.

New types - means new tooling, engineering, training, etc. If they ain't broke don't fix them.

The A320s. Yes, too many and too big now for the "new" European routes or indeed for the old 146 runs. Let some go off lease and replace with A319s maybe.

[MarkD]

WHBM

Transatlantic - agreed

Toronto - in summer supports AC daily plus Transat (and some Skyservice I think?). All that and Zoom putting 763ERs into BFS. The Shannon stop has to be a big problem economically. Need a smaller aircraft than a 332 when the competition into DUB/SNN are using 310s and 762s.

Orlando - could refit a 330 (during your $10m refit) to charter config (with a small "club" cabin like Transat et al) for Orlando and some Caribbean work.

Dubai - no way unless Emirates are on board and CX picking up at DXB (they do) and QF (they don't).

Transfer traffic - can't really move on because otherwise you play into MOLs hands who doesn't give a damn if you miss a connection because he won't transfer your bags anyway. It needs to get done.

New types - should only be gotten if they have a business case. Why order 767s TTT when the 330 is in the same general class, and EI already struck out with the 763ERs before.

On the other hand, 752 or 753 with Continental style winglets and a very small Premier cabin would make more sense because the 321s won't go transatlantic and AA are showing the way - 767 to DUB and 757 to SNN. Toronto could work in the winter *if* you had 757s. If EI served all ports ex SNN with 757 and the thinner US DUBs, fewer 330 cycles and capacity that made sense would follow along with more 330 eastbound possibilities.

Lastly - the 320s. EI have six options on 32x, make them heavy 319s and use them like AC does, proving routes and handling longer thinner routes. Could then let some/all the 321s go (to IB, say, especially if 757s came the other way) and tighten the LHR yield with 320s, especially if you actually have a long haul strategy which is not to mimic BA's (i.e. everything into LHR).

Finally (not to WHBM) for those seeking 777s - first, GE Capital would need to be making a stupendous offer (in exchange of EI going GE, natch). They don't need to because Boeing don't have any problem shifting 777s, they need help shifting 744s which EI will never take.

But why? It's a huge change of equipment and the 787s won't be arriving for a long time so you end up with a split fleet and no easy progression from the 32x fleet. EI is not like AC, where Boeing was offering equipment in sectors Airbus couldn't match, like 777F and replacing their huge 762/763 fleet.

[akerosid]

Just received the latest Irish Air Letter, which has a few points to make:

- Talking about 5-6 years for replacement of EI long haul fleet (assuming 787/350 chosen)
- In the meantime, refurbishment will be done on current fleet, to bring it up to date. (DM reported in last Friday's IT, to be less than impressed with flat bed concept in J class, but does recognise need to make product competitive.

From the above, appears that for the foreseeable future anyway, it's going to be an Airbus long haul fleet. Of course, there are a few "imponderables" ... when will the airline have the right to launch new t/a flights? Could be in time for next Summer, or could be two years down the line, particularly if govt tries to insist on phased approach to dropping of stopover (it won't get it, but it could delay things). The big difficulty is how to get acft it needs if it gets new rights at short notice.

Also consider (as DM suggests) that the 333 with updated IFE is going to be even more range restricted than it is now. DM accepts that aircraft have a limited future, although it is difficult to regard the A330s as "old aircraft" (in the same way as the 747s before them).

[dlav]

How bad is the recruitment siituation at Aer Lingus. Im guessing bad, but just how bad exactly? Any inside knowledge anybody?

Also, would any of the 330 guys care to publish a roster?

[signeti]

optimists say small chance of recruiting at end of this year,
pessimists say small chance of recruiting end of next year ,

question is will they take type rated direct entries or the cadets from pre 9/11 ???

[PhoenixRising]

Apparently several EI pilots are reaching the 900 hour limit and are having to be stood down. An FO I know is in this situation and now has 6 weeks off (on full pay) before he can fly again.

Most people seem to think that pilot recruitment will be needed in the next 12 months as the current situation is unsustainable.

The Labour Court ruled that the 9/11 cadets should be recalled before any outside recruitment takes place, following the pilots strike in 2002. Most of the cadets are now working for other airlines. Many are happy with their lot, while others would like to return.

[840]

Apparently they are close to new working arrangements for long haul cabin crew

http://breaking.tcm.ie/2005/08/25/story217746.html

[ElNino]

I think the Labour Court ruling only guaranteed an interview, nothing more, to the ex-cadets, although I stand to be corrected on this. If they went the route of rated people, this would rule out most of the cadets anyway, most being Boeing/BAe typed.
My guess is that if EI were to recruit non-rated, the door would be beaten down by the pilots of every other dublin based company, not to speak of all the Irish guys abroad who would like to come home. About the only thing that would turn people off is the command time issue, which I have heard is currently 14 years at EI.

[MarkD]

ElNino

I thought cadets were typed to 320 rather than 146/737?

[PhoenixRising]

No not necessarily. It used to be that cadets could bid for 146, 737 or 32x courses unless the company found itself short on a particular fleet in which case they would be told which type they will be going on to. Although the last few cadets who kept their jobs were all typed on the 32x as Aer Lingus had plans to dump the 146 and 737's.

@ElNino,

Yeah that was my understanding aswell. If the cadets are recalled they will almost certainly have to undergo an interview and sim check before being re-hired. There's no way they will recall 44 ex-cadets on good faith...

[ElNino]

I should have said "ex-cadets" when referring to those who are Boeing/BAe rated. The point being that most of the ex-cadets got jobs elsewhere on 737's or 146's (with some exceptions of course), thus if EI were looking for rated people only, most of the ex-cadets would be de facto ruled out.

The last class of cadets to stay at EI were rated on all 3 short-haul types at the time (spring 2001), later converting to the 'Bus, but of course that issue is now irrelevant.

[signeti]

737/146
ryanair/cityjet
:} :} :}
watch the stampede back to the jolly green giant

[EI-MICK]

id say most of the ex cadets have jobs,anyhere here an ex cadet?? i know of a cadet who returned to college and now has a flying job with a regional carrier,he must of been the last to have been snapped up seeing he returned to college.

[PhoenixRising]

Most of the cadets have found other jobs now but there are still a few who have not. There's a few in EasyJet, Aer Arann, CityJet, GB Airways, Monarch, Jet2 and one or two who went to Ryanair after being released.

I'm sure a lot would return to AL, given the opportunity but there are probably some who wouldn't - being happy with their current lot.

[Miki Mach]

Are we to take it that Tom de Tenor is a Cork born Boeing employee ? , boy ! . Does he really want EI to have a mixed fleet as suggested ?:hmm: