Long haul the only route for EI - Mannion

[akerosid]

Rather than continuing the EI A380 thread, which was getting silly and hostile, I thought it best to start a new thread on this. Today's Irish Times has a story on Aer Lingus and its long haul aspirations.

Here's the link, but if it doesn't work, I'll set out the basic points here anyway: (it is a subscription service, by the way ... the IT doesn't make an E15m profit for nothing:

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/finance/2005/0715/67808258BWLINGUSFRONT.html

- Long haul necessary, as EI won't be of interest to investors if it doesn't have a plan for this.
- Short haul market increasingly crowded. CPH not so wonderful! EI not taking bookings, may be cut.
- EI to look at ME and Asia; may feed into ME or Asian hub. Dubai or SIN mentioned (SIN's a no go due to runway length; HK is best Asian hub for EI - Akerosid opinion)
- Financial performance disappointing, but picking up now
- GF to announce DUB service this morning.

So, looks like things are picking up for EI. There's a lot to be done yet. The main obstacle for EI on Asian routes is its service product, which hasn't been updated in recent years, or seen investment. If they're not willing to do that, forget it. Of course, new aircraft will have PTVs/IFE fitted as standard, but it's more than this. Crew morale will be an issue too.

As for GF, great news, although I'd prefer EK from a national point of view. GF isn't anything like as big, nor is its network, but it's certainly a step in the right direction. That said, if EI does want to grow on Asian routes, keeping EK out of DUB is going to be important. I wonder if DXB is the market EI wants to feed into? Hope not.

[TopBunk]

Aeroskid

Ireland has a population of under 4m. I would seriously question the ability of that size of population to support any significant longhaul network. Sure there are Irish centres in Boston, New York etc that warrant a service, but imho that's about it.

The location of Ireland means that people are unlikely to fly to Dublin to fly eastwards and when flying west all places are in range without a stopover.

You talk about feeding into the Gulf or SE Asia - well maybe as a feed to a local carrier - for sure EI couldn't compete 'cos they couldn't offer competitive onward network options.

Air Lingus need to realise what they are (and what Swissair and Sabena didn't) - that they are point-to-point European carrier with a small intercontinental service servicing a specific market.

[Captain Airclues]

TopBunk

Singapore also has a population of 4m. I believe that they have a reasonably successful longhaul airline. (Agree with your other points).

Airclues

[TopBunk]

Airclues

Very true, but the point is that Singapore acts as a transit point for pax going in every direction. A substantial proportion of SQ's traffic starts and finshes elsewhere.

It is that model that Emirates are trying to copy.

Both places are located such that a single stop transfer is possible to virtually everywhere.

Dublin does not fit the bill in that way at all.

[zed3]

TopBunk.....dunno about that , they are halfway from somewhere to America and have Shannon which could be re-invented . Might work .

[Captain Airclues]

TopBunk

My point was that having a population of 4m does not prevent a country from having a longhaul airline. As I said, I agree with all your other points.

Airclues

[holyflyer]

Always good to remember that the number of Irish living outside Ireland is far far greater than those living in Ireland. The diaspora is huge. Some are in the obvious places - London, New York etc, some not so obvious - very sizeably group around Munich, further big group round Rio. (Have a look where Irish embassies and consulates are = substantial Irish populations and business interests.)

I'm sure its been done, but it would be good for EI to examine in great detail the domiciles of its diaspora children and the current origin/destination of interlining passengers whose travel begins/terminates in Ireland. Then compare and contrast.

In the past EI have looked to interline through LHR and the eastern USA JFK/BOS. There is now enormous competition on these routes. Obvious additional north american points are Toronto / San Francisco. Both have very sizeable Irish populations and also provide the opportunity to interline through DUB to european points.

EI have never ventured east into Asia - it would be a brave step in the current market. Though I recall being told once that after a detailed examination of ticket coupons (this is the old days) there were sufficient interline passengers from Sydney & Perth, to justify a twice weekly service. Could do that over DXB, capturing a bit of holiday traffic into the bargain.

I agree that EI's long haul service package does need a radical makeover if its to compete with the Gulf state & Far East airlines.

[holyflyer]

"Aer Lingus have announced five new routes. They are Dublin to Fuerteventura, Dublin to Bordeaux, Dublin to Riga, Dublin to Salzburg and Cork to Warsaw. This brings the total of new Aer Lingus routes for 2005 to 15."