Ryanair at Shannon?

[Pete_Pilot]

Since Ryanair established their base here in Shannon, I have already flown a number of times at very low prices, both on business and for pleasure to such places as East Midlands, Liverpool and Frankfurt. However, loads were very, very low on all the flights that I have done to those cities.
The London route seems to be attracting more passengers, although EZY is offering pretty competitive fares at the moment as well.
I know they have just started the base, but the overall performance looks really bad. A friend, who is ground handler, told me that loads are quite low.

Is this 'expected' or is Shannon really too small to have a base (bearing in mind that it has been tried before...).

Pete

[FlyCorkInternational]

Apparently Ryanair are less than happy with at least 4 of the routes from Shannon and news of their dropping of these routes is expected in the not too distant future. As for the viability of Shannon as a base ~ it is certainly in doubt that Shannon could support the loads that Ryanair want, even taking the "deal" that they got from SNN into account.

Ryanair have been having talks with Cork and are very keen to transfer some of the SNN aircraft to Cork and have a bigger presence there as they see that some of the routes would be supported a lot more with the greater population from Cork. They are holding out for the same kind of deal that they got in SNN. Whether they get it is another story.

[phil_2405]

Does anyone know which routes are performing worst?

[The Real Slim Shady]

Of course if Ryanair can't manage to make Shannon viable, EUjet will step into the breach and waste another sack full of cash discovering that they don't have a magic wand.

[Jan the man]

Hello,

Although Cork arguably has a better catchment population than Shannon, it probably falls short of what an airline should consider reasonable to set up a base. I can't believe Ryanair chose Shannon in the first place!
Have heard the rumours about absolutely underperforming routes as well, which demonstrates that even Ryanair cannot make all routes work... Expect some Shannon route cuts after the peak summer season (or even earlier).

J

[Buster the Bear]

Winter timetable shows the Shannon-Luton flight using a Luton airframe and not one from Ireland.

Prices from Luton to Shannon are SO cheap, Mr, Mrs and Busterette are flying there for under fifty quid return inclusive!

http://static.zsl.org/images/width150/bear-04-web-305.jpg

[lowfaresbuster]

Jan the Man- Cork county has a population of 447,829
of which 123,062 are in Cork City and 324,767 are in Cork County.

compare this with Bristol 420k, Leeds 443k, Liverpool 469k.

I think ORK is big enough for a base.

[Cyrano]

Lowfaresbuster:

I don't think you're comparing apples with apples.
Unless I'm mistaken, the UK numbers you quote are city populations only, which frankly are pretty meaningless - what's much more important is the number of people within say 60 or 90 minutes journey time of the airport, irrespective of whether they're living inside a given city boundary.

I don't have detailed catchment numbers for all the airports you've cited, but - to take BRS as an example - Avon, Gloucestershire and North Somerset (a reasonable catchment for BRS, I think) is about 1.5 m people I believe. Hopefully a knowledgeable soul like Merchant Venturer can help us out.

I appreciate the (well-founded) desire to see more services out of ORK, but creative accounting with the catchment numbers to overegg the case doesn't really serve anyone.

C.

[egnxema]

Looking at the winter timetables there are currently no flights showing for:

NRN
HHN
GRO
BGY


LPL - Op by LPL aircraft
LTN - Op by LTN aircraft
STN - one of the 4 rotations op by STN aircraft

[840]

I've never seen any catchment area figures for Irish Airports, so I cam up with some crude ones of my own based on where I thought you could drive to in a certain timeframe and the population of various electoral districts.

The figures I got were

Cork
Within 1/2 hour: 310,000
Within 1 hour: 500,000
Within 2 hours: 1,030,000

Shannon
Within 1/2 hour: 180,000
Within 1 hour: 410,000
Within 2 hours: 960,000

So, the differences aren't that big between the two airports, although Cork has a lot more people who live very locally.

Obviously, there is a huge overlap of people who live within 2 hours of both airports.

[anna_list]

@ egnxema:

NRN: days 1357 only (reduced from daily)
HHN: days 1356 only (increased from 1x weekly)
GRO: days 1357 only (no change)
BGY: days 1357 only (no change)

CRL: days 2467 only (reduced from daily)
LGW: 2x daily (increased from daily)

There is room for a new route on days 246 (when the aircraft isn't going to NRN) and there also seems to be a short spare slot between the two LGW rotations... just long enough for a hop over to DUB ?

[MerchantVenturer]

Cyrano

A couple of years after the 2001 Census Bristol's population was officially adjusted upwards to approximately 420,000 but, as you say, this is meaningless. Unlike many UK cities its municipal boundaries have not been extended for over forty years, hence the true 'city' population is about 700,000. (much of the extra is contained in the unitary authority of South Gloucestershire to the north and east, a substantial 'city' in its own right, and you can't see the join between it and Bristol)

Add in most of the rest of the former county of Avon (which no longer exists), the northern part of the historic county of Somerset plus parts of west Wiltshire and you do have well over a million living within twenty miles of BRS.

The government White Paper says that 7.3 million people live within a 2-hour drive of BRS but even that is slightly misleading because some of those live near other airports as well.

This is not directly related to Shannon but I was asked and it does perhaps give an indication to SNN's and ORK's positions in terms of catchments.

[840]

There are similar problems with city definitions in Ireland. In 2002, the population of the Cork Urban Area was 186,239 (CSO figures), yet the population of the city council area was 123,062.

Limerick Urban Area had a population of 86,998, while the population of the city council area was 54,023.

A look at the figures suggests Galway has surpassed Limerick as Ireland's 3rd largest city with a population of 65,832. However, Galway's boundaries pretty much fit the city and it has an overall population of 66,163.

[Cyrano]

Thanks for the "guest expert" input, MV - much appreciated. :ok:

[FLYboh]

This was taken from the Irish Independent in an article about Dublin, looks like FR are still expanding there.

'Separately, Ryanair is also increasing capacity at Shannon, Cork, Knock and Derry airports. Tomorrow, the airline will announce plans to add two new routes out of Shannon: one is expected to be to a location in western France, the other to southern England'.

[CCR]

Regarding city boundaries...same applies to Cork. They haven't been changed in decades. The Greater Cork area including its suburbs and commuter towns is not far off 500,000 people.

[the highwayman]

Don't know much about the relative size of the catchment areas - but I've often wondered about the possibility of routes from the West of Ireland (Shannon, Galway or Knock) to the West/South west of England or Wales - there was a piece on another thread about Air Wales having a Galway/Cardiff flight on their booking machine.

I know that Cork - Bristol and Plymouth have both worked before and wondered if Ryanair were thinking about having a go at Bristol, Cardiff or Bournemouth ex Shannon. I wonder if the rugby fraternity in Limerick would make us of the first two ?

Unfortunately for Shannon, loads from outside the UK and the main european cities are probably more dependent on the inbound passengers (i.e. European mainland tourists) than on the people of the mid-west deciding to take a cheapo trip to Germany.

[neidin]

yes -= FR have announced new flts from SNN to BRS and Nantes. EZY were looking at both of these routes ex ORK or SNN so I guess this closes the door somewaht for them.

Sure - the loads and yield are crap out of SNN for FR on many flts but when SNN is paying you for every passenger - well how bad can it be. FR have also renegotiated their deal to an even better level at SNN this week.

[Buster the Bear]

THURSDAY 07/07/2005 08:25:43
Ryanair expected to announce expansion at Shannon

Low fares airline Ryanair is expected to announce an expansion of it's services from Shannon Airport at a news conference later this morning.


Ryanair boss, Michael O` Leary will announce details of the expansion along with Pat Shanahan of the Shannon Airport Authority.

Today`s news conference will take place at Shannon Airport and speculation is continuing as to which routes will be opened up by Ryanair.

It`s already been reported that at least two new routes will be unveiled, one to Southern England and one to Western France although this has yet to be confirmed.


Last November Ryanair announced it was to make Shannon a major European hub and the new services it rolled out in May have been a major sucess.

Meanwhile, Ryanair will also announce expansions at Cork, Knock and Derry Airports today.

http://static.zsl.org/images/width150/bear-04-web-305.jpg

[Tom the Tenor]

Micheal O'Leary, Shannon Airport marketing manager! FR should do well enough on both routes especially Nantes and if at the same time they are securing an even better deal from snn, well what you can say! A job well done. No flies on the Ryanair pooh!

[ALLMCC]

Good to see MOL going back to his homeland for expansion - what I'd like to know is if FR will ever expand north of the border.

The scattering match that would ensue would be worth witnessing!

[jsd95]

SNN-Nantes officially confirmed, 3/week from November 1st, 737-800 !!

Press conferences today morning.
Already updated on ryanair.com !

:D

[airbourne]

Anybody any info on the expansion at LDY? Im a little confused! Do they still use the ex-Buzz 733's I cant see MOL letting a 738 go into LDY with 130 pax. Whats the story on the LDY r/w?

[MarkD]

airbourne

738s are operating - AFAIK all 733s departed, 140max means 49 seats blocked off.

[eastern wiseguy]

scattering match that would ensue


Who would scatter? and to where? Flybe? surely not EasyJet? even less likely...... Allan we must by now have reached saturation on the amount of traffic this area can stand?.I look forward to your insight as to the areas for TRUE competition.....perhaps ex BFS to NWI? :E :E



Not edited ...etc etc etc

[thebeehive]

Hi all,

I flew LGW-SNN on EZY and outbound was about 60/70% load factor and coming back it was around 30% so not just FR who could do better out of SNN.

As has been said there is scope for based aircraft at Shannon but I think what FR is currently doing is ambitious!

As for the LGW-SNN this winter there will be 2x738's and 2x319's a day (680 seats approx supply) someone is going to be the looser!

[neidin]

Both Ryanair and EasyJet will persist with losing fortunes head to head in Ireland at NOC, SNN and less so at ORK.

The implications for the share price of both companies if one of them gives into the other on these routes is massive. If EasyJet back out of SNN or NOC - Ryanair will exploit it to the hilt - crushing EasyJet's share price. Such is the fickle nature of the city and it is being played out on the West of Ireland.

Easy share price has more than doubled since Oct 04 - so they are not going to jeopardise city sentiment by pulling out of SNN.

[anna_list]

@ neidin:

Interesting that you should say that.

As far as I can see, the EZY services between LGW and NOC, ORK and SNN are still not for sale beyond 29th October.

Tickets for the only other airport pairs on which EZY and FR compete head-to-head (EMA - CIA, STN - LEI and STN - VLC) appear to have been released.

Is it too early to draw conclusions?

[The_Bean_Counter]

Anna

Too early to say if Easy will put those routes on sale or not, there are a number of gaps in the schedule BFS ex LGW and BLQ ex STN still missing

neidin

First rule of bean counting is to stop losses. Staying on a loss making route to support the share price can only be a short term solution and will only lead to problems in the end. Better to cut loss making routes and concentrate on making a profit which shareholders want and they will support the share price if the profit remains intact.

[neidin]

Mr. Bean I agree with your logic entirely - but sadly logic and LCC's share prices do not tally.

If EasyJet blink against FR in SNN or ORK they will get mauled by the markets. FR will kill them with the finacial analysts and press if EasyJet have to pull back and that could cause huge problems for EasyJet going forward. It does not make sense to stay on loss-making routes - unless leaving them causes you to lose a bigger war. I guess they could maybe drop NOC with less complaints - but even that would be risky for EasyJet.

As for FR - no way they will ever pull back from this farews war with EasyJet in Ireland.

[ontheedge]

Neidin
We know you will do anything to retain the flights, including putting out silly rumours regarding the share price. However, with the oversupply of seats at both NOC and SNN, the ridiculously low yield combined with poor load factors something will give very soon.....wait and see! Without making business sense it won't contine....it is not even near to making a contribution to the bottom line.

[neidin]

Edge, of course you are right, it does not make sense to run massively loss making routes and for Europe's two largest low cost carriers to wage a bitter fares war at marginal locations such as NOC, ORK and SNN.

But whoever blinks and gives in will suffer at the hands of spin doctors, twentysomething stock market analysts and the media.

If Easy gives into Ryanair in Ireland their share price will get hammered.

Maybe the twist in the tale will be EasyJet's rumoured moves to open a real low cost operation at Kerry where a brand new regional bus hub is being built with hourly services to Cork and Limerick cities.

[Buster the Bear]

Luton to Shannon and return very recently. Loads were, on the flights that I flew on, around 50 and 60%

http://static.zsl.org/images/width150/bear-04-web-305.jpg

[Pete_Pilot]

Interesting facts. I am inclined to think that Ryanair is in a worse position than Easyjet if EZY do not withdraw from the Irish routes soon:
- The Shannon base seems to have been a reaction to the Oranges entering Irish territory. As has been discussed, there are probably more lucrative places in Europe where Ryanair can dump capacity.
- By flooding the market with seats, the self-inflicted damage to revenue on existing Irish routes from London may have a very significant impact on Ryanair profitability.
- It seems that Ryanair had to use its Gatwick-Dublin slots to compete head to head - there must be a significant opportunity cost to that move!

I can't help but think that Ryanair overreacted a bit and that at the end of the day, Ryanair may well be worse of than EZY. Maybe this was even a deliberate provocation by the Oranges to make Ryanair react irrationally?

In any case, it will be interesting to see what the outcome will be of this clash of masculinity.

I have noted, however, that Ryanair are increasingly looking to compete with other low fare airlines. For example, they have just announced a number of routes that compete against SkyEurope and Wizz, two airlines that probably have a very low cost base as well because they are based in Eastern Europe.

Could it be that the European low-cost sector is becoming increasingly crowded?

Pete

[CargoOne]

I remember the days when apart from everything else we used to have 2 operational bases at HHN and SNN. And it was hell difficult to change/position crews on a short notice between these bases... Few times it resulted in a hire of business jet (that's the way to make the crew happy, isn't it?), otherwise it was Hahn to FRA on a taxi, then FRA-LHR-SNN...
The real relief was Ryanair who opened HHN-SNN direct :cool:

[The_Bean_Counter]

New Easyjet routes announced today give Ryanair a taste of their own medicine

LGW MJV
LGW GNB both Ryanair routes ex STN

DTM BCN
DTM MPX both Ryanair routes ex HHN

GVA LIS
GVA AGP

But still no winter schedule on ORK, SNN and NOC

They have loaded LGW BFS however which was missing earlier this week