Doom Mongering On PPrune...

[Zulu Yankee]

I've noticed an increasing trend on this forum of people doom mongering the situation to people looking to fly. My advice to people who are interested is to go for it and to ignore the comments flying around on here from a lot of more bitter seeming members. Of all the people I know who have enrolled on courses, only one remains jobless. If you read this site, the impression you'll get is that there's no such thing as an airline job for a person with a CPL. This isn't the case, you have to work hard, but eventually, if you're determined enough, you'll get that job.
Just had to raise this issue!:ok:

[Gillespie]

I totally agree. This job market is extremely competitive, and I get the feeling that members of this site try to deter fellow wannabes, for their own personal gain.

I am a wannabe and I've learned to take negative comments written in this forum about job prospects etc with a pinch of salt for this very reason.

[Number Cruncher]

ZY

Well said. At the end of the day it comes down to the individual. Everyone knows its not going to be easy, but if you are failing assessments then you really need to identify where you are going wrong and work on it, that said there are probably still quite a few people that are plain unlucky.

On the other hand you have Spaceman who appears to be a total no hoper - i wonder if he has realised why............

[Zulu Yankee]

Cheers for your support here guys, its something I feel strongly about and its been bothering me. Exactly like you said, it takes a bit of luck, but so does any career. Get into it young enough, be determined enough and you'll get there. :cool:

Happy flying gents

[arpansingla]

I'm 16 and when i first starting using pprune i was very surprised about how negative some people were. i have learnt you have to remain positive, and put 110% into it if you really want to become a pilot. some people decide the task is too big and give up, and put other people off as a result. Its good to know there are people out there who can be positive as well!

[Nereus]

Have to disagree. Not everyone is going to have an opinion you like

Its an anonymous forum so sure you'll get a lot of "data", but you choose which bits of that data are relevant information worth inwardly digesting.

Been visiting Pprune for about a year, as a "wannabe", been nothing but helpful to me because I choose where to go, what to read & whom to listen to. Even the doomsayers are giving you constructive information, i.e. what you need to do to be a step ahead, & attempting to garner you with a realistic perspective.

Sometimes you have to read between the lines.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I estimate that roughly half of those who enrol on the ATPL eaxams or CPL course never ever actually end up earning their living as a professional pilot.

Thats a lot of wastage and grief. Few people will tell you this and the schools actively won't.

Yes if you keep plugging away you will usually end up with some form of flying career. But oh my god can it take a long time and cost you a lot financially, personally and socially. Better to be over warned and 'lucky' then be naive and end up bitter.

Cheers

WWW

[tom24]

Nerus

nobody here doubts the usefulness of these forums, however, you really cannot let these forums have any input on your final decision as to whether or not to go for the career.

So many people from different walks of life and background read these forums. A lot of them will have signed up, got the book and now be a little bit bitter about the whole thing. Well, simple truth is they are maybe just not cut out for it. If you are having trouble getting a job, do something about it, there is enough good advice on these forums from the likes of him above etc, so use it, stop moping and go get it.

I really do think that if you apply yourself in the correct manner all along the way it is within reach. The only think that can help, that not everybody has, is surplus cash, but that's the easy way out and there are ways around this.

[Nereus]

surplus cash can't buy you ability?

If you read these forums you could have gone to cranwell & had an objective opinion & a very useful debrief.

Whilst it can't make the decision for you. It is information & the more information you have to consider usually the better your decision.

For many, if not most, people the thought of entering into a very large debt with a less than 50% chance of success is invlauable information. Most people wont make a decision based upon the forums but they'll pick & choose who to contact for further information before they go on with it, or they've already made a decision & are looking for some more advice on the route to take.

all I've said is "I have to disagree"

1. you can't just ignore the negative comments, take them onboard & consider them. PM the poster & assign a merit or value to the post in making your decision.

2. If you read this site, the impression you'll get is that there's no such thing as an airline job for a person with a CPL. This isn't the case, pretty sure you need more than the cpl to get into an airline.

[RowleyUK]

IMHO....Contacts are more important than ability!!


It has been said for years and it will always be the case......"The more people you know the better, the higher those people then the better still!!"

[PPRuNe Towers]

errr, Zulu Yankee,

The key point is would you have registered in March 2004 and made the same proposition?

A huge amount of hiring going on. A massive shortage of experienced pilots worldwide and the logjam of qualified folks finally able to move into the profession as a result.

And PPRuNers read it here first 18 months ago from the working professionals not those going through the training system.

Anybody who's been around here a while knows doom mongering is a actually a massively decreasing trend - our wannabee forum archives and search engine tells all without fear or favour.

Where doom mongering is growing hugely is where you're aiming though. The quality of life, terms and conditions of the jobs you seek. Life on the rest of this website reflects this each and every day.

Just about each and every one of you will, however, chose to ignore this.

Regards
Rob

[Zulu Yankee]

PPT,

I've been a long time member, just decided to change my name yesterday. Now, whilst old boy pilots might say the quality of life is declining, what you must still draw in to the picture is that the quality of living is still leaps and bounds ahead of 98% of other careers. Albeit people maybe unhappy about comprimises having to be made, but you must take it in context of the bigger picture.

And in my opinion, there has been a lot of doom mongering going on, I've noticed mainly by people who seem to be recurringly knocked back. Unlucky for them, but the kind of people who will get pilot jobs would not deter people from joining their beloved career simply because of their own bad luck - it simply would not be in their character.

Admittedly the "not what you know, but who you know" is very true, but if you look hard enough and work hard enough the links are their to be made. People I know have slogged through night shifts working for airliners in seemingly menial jobs, but they met the right people and within a year, these people were all on their way. Mostly for the airlines they slogged for. So you can't whinge about it being a who you know situation, its a question of how much you're prepared to do to get to know them.

[hingey]

Just a question regarding professional pilots, how many pilots with all the ratings are out of work? Do a large number of youngsters such as myself make it if it's what they want to do? Any statistics?

Many thanks.

h

[Zulu Yankee]

My advice, go for it, but you have to be committed. All but one of the pilots I know is currently employed or in a holding pool.

Regards

[scroggs]

It is intrinsic to the nature of the Wannabes forum that the average contributor (or lurker) has not got a flying job, and is presumably engaged (or about to be engaged) in the process of trying to find one. Therefore there is not likely to be a great deal of information from the recently-employed about how they managed to succeed. Basically, once you've got a job, you tend to bugger off without a word to the ones left behind! It was ever thus... The inevitable consequence is that the job-search and assessment of the market can become influenced more by hopes and rumours than facts.

Fortunately, you have access to a hardy few professional pilots who take a continued interest in the plight of the Wannabe, and observe the employment market dispassionately on your behalf. This small group has repeatedly given you unbiased, realistic advice about the state of the jobs market and the various ways to make the best of it. Most of you, I'm sure, have digested and appreciated that advice. A small minority have resented it and preferred to believe the rosy forecasts of the flight schools.

The fact remains that the majority of those who begin the process of obtaining professional flight licences do not subsequently earn their living from flying airliners. Of those who approach the licencing or training authorities with a view to attempting this path, a tiny minority succeed in obtaining employment. How many of those who succeed in obtaining a CPL/IR give up the employment search is impossible to accurately determine from such statistics as exist, but the number is substantial.

As for the realities of the job, it is patently obvious that many wannabes have a tragically distorted view of the job of being an airline pilot, and are therefore destined to be severely disappointed should they eventually find themselves in an airline's employ. It is in all of your interest that we professional pilots should expose you to the range of opinions and experiences that are expressed in and about our jobs by those who actually do them. The frustrations, stresses, inequities, and injustices that go on are real. They may have equivalents in other professions, but you need to understand that aviation is not some magic carpet to spiritual and professional nirvana. As an example, the divorce rate in this job is arguably the highest of any.

It's up to you what you make of what you read here, but of one thing be certain: we will not paint a rosy picture when one is not justified. We will tell you the realities, warts and all. Try getting that from OAT, Cabair, CTC, etc...

Scroggs

[The mole]

www - I suspect your 50% is about right.

What you (not you www, but everyone) need to realise is that opinions on pprune are posted by people who can be bothered to post, not by the silent majority. This means that by their very nature they will tend to be extreme - also we hide behind the cloak of anonymity which is a good word that took me three attempts to spell.

Right now I love flying - it's spring, there is a whole summer of instructing to look forward to. So do it
Next week I will hate it and the last 7 years have been a complete waste of time and money because I will have a rejection letter from flyeurope or whoever. So don't do it

There do seem to be a few people who consistently p**s us all off - whether it is doom mongering or some 21 year old newbie with 250 hrs in the RHS of a jet who is telling us the whole thing is easy and we just need to plug away for the 3 or 4 months that they did oh and by the way did you know my dad also flies for the airline now there's a coincidence. SO SHUT IT.

Rant over thank you for reading!

The mole

[nomercy]

I have to question the "doom - mongering theory. There are a lot of guys who have paid lots of money to qualify and hopefully work as a airline pilot. For many the word "work" is important as the job has to pay the mortagage and bring up a family. I feel that "concern" would be a better phrase.

The pilot jobmarket has been stagnant for some time and has only just started to pick up. Some newcomers may not realise this. The IPA quoted 329 members airline unemployed in its latest newsletter and most of them have been looking for some time.

I am full of praise for people with determination and enthusiasm but the "go for it " approach has been the downfall of many, leaving them in serious debt without a job. I think people need to research through neutral sources and then make their own mind up. The training schools appear to have had a mass production on rose - tinted spectacles - they want your money!

Nomercy.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Things really have picked up since the end of last summer. I now can happily look back at the guys I started PPL instructing with in 1999 and they have ALL got airline jobs now. May have taken a while to get the last ones over the fence post 9/11 but now its happened and happened fast. The later ones have had multiple offers to choose from even.

Virtually all the proper AOC airlines in the UK are hiring at the moment. I've heard that most of the second tier Air Operators are also hiring as a result. Often with rapidly falling hours/experience requirements.

There is an air of 1996 in the wind. The major airline recession of the 1990 - 1994 period was over. After years of no movement airlines starting hiring again.

Which led to a sudden influx of interest in flight training and suddenly everyone was clamouring to get their licenses issued/re-validated. By 1997 there were loads of people chasing still only a realtively few jobs. By late 1998 hiring had dried up the pool and by 1999 people were coming straight out of school into the jets with seemingly regular success. 2000 and 2001 were brilliant for hiring until Sept.

There are a lot of people out there who have trained and got nowhere in the last 4 years who will re-enter the market as it improves. There are lots currently in training. Maybe 2 years from now thing will get back to a 1999 situation for low time Wannabes.

Just after Sept 11 2001 I wrote at length that timing was key to this business. I suggested it was simply not worth trying to train and enter the business for at least 4 years. To do so would invite the misery of pouring money into license revalidation whilst collecting nothing more than rejection letters from airlines. Years of such misery has broken the will of many an aspiring pilot.

At least now, with real, sustained, robust movement in hiring - you have the happy light at the end of the tunnel to keep you morale up.

The terms and conditions are certainly worse than only 5 years ago. Then you joined an airline and signed a 3 yr bond and that was it. You were an FO. Now you are likely to sign a longer bond, paid for by a loan from your bank and be on a reduced salary for the privilige.

Hopefully that will all disappear in coming years as airlines compete to hire the available competent labour. Well - one can only hope :)

Cheers

WWW

[Zulu Yankee]

WWW, spoken like a pro:cool:

[CAT3C AUTOLAND]

Basically, once you've got a job, you tend to bugger off without a word to the ones left behind!

This is only to true Scroggs, and if I am lucky enough to land an airline job in the future, I will certainly not adopt that attitude.

Just out of interest what drives you guys here to post on PPRUNE, meaning the guys who have been flying for 20 or 30 years? Even though I am in the early parts of my career, I feel it is important to give back a little of ones experience to help others. I remember how frustrating it used to be, the fear of the unknown of the ATPL exams and the IR skill test. I found it quite refreshing when someone who has 'been there and done it' to give you advice and hopefully put you at ease.

Just some thoughts :D.

[PPRuNe Towers]

Just out of interest what drives you guys here to post on PPRUNE, meaning the guys who have been flying for 20 or 30 years?

Reasons in no particular order:

We created PPRuNe to give pro pilots instant information especially regarding jobs, perceived reputation and reality. Wannabees became a vital spinoff of this - the function is identical.

We've all been through the training system but without PPRuNe - no checks and balances. We only had access to golden spun marketing and, with all respect, baseless drivel and chinese whispers from instructors. At the time you don't realise they are just as much airline outsiders as you are.

Somehow we don't fit in the normal, generic, self interested pilot profile - the reason why those who get jobs so rarely come back to these forums. 60+ percent of our nearly 90,000 signed up PPRuNers have professional licences. How many regularly post here? How many have and quit when they note the reception accorded to any leavening of reality regarding life on the line they offer. Probably they recognize themselves in an earlier life and know they won't be listened to because they were just the same.

It's a fact you (generically) will take more notice of an instructor or marketer's ideas than folks who actually do the job. We are daft enough to rail against that aspect of human nature - believing what you desperately want to believe. Mistakes will continue to be made by many of you but at least we can honestly claim a few of us ensured the truth was told.

Prime reason though is the checks and balances I mentioned.

Through tradition, blatant FTO self interest and a supine controlling authority a wannabee can only easily find spin and marketing rather than facts. Any industry wide assessment of respective quality comes under the heading of 'far too difficult' other than the (inaccurate) measure of bankruptcy.

None of you is able to find a simple measure such as initial class one medicals issued versus pro licences issued versus first public transport type rating placed on licence balanced over, say, a three of four year period. This is an IT task of childlike simplicity as many of you are fully aware and is fully isolated from individual school's performance.

It is a complete disgrace that you can't see the effective and overall success rate in both qualifying and gaining a first job from a known baseline - initial class one issue. That's got to be the only real measure to assess before spending an outrageous sum of money and assuming debt to be paid off over a similar period.

Without that it really is a lottery - we post to try and help your odds.

Regards to all,
Rob Lloyd

[Flypuppy]

Rob,

It is all appreciated. Surprisingly.... :)

[Zulu Yankee]

Here here, tis appreciated. If it wasn't for many peoples efforts i'd have a lot less of an idea of whats going on!

[Mister Geezer]

WWW quoted:

Things really have picked up since the end of last summer. I now can happily look back at the guys I started PPL instructing with in 1999 and they have ALL got airline jobs now.

I can beat that one... everyone that I instructed with in spring/summer 2003 has got airline jobs - including me!! No doom mongering there!!!;)

[scroggs]

Jeez, they give anyone a job these days! ;)