Etihad, QR, EK or vice versa?

[popay]

Etihad, QR, Emirates or vice versa.
I am watching this incredible development of the aviation industry in the Middle East and wonder where that is all going to end. All the airlines have basically the same commercial concept such is: “developing of transit traffic using the hub in the ME”.
All the airlines, I am talking about mayor players, invest billions of dollars in fleet expansion opening new routes, increasing the frequencies and so on. For instance QR has signed the deal for 5,1 billons, Etihad for 7,1 billions, Emirates has ordered about 34 A 380.
Emirates will have about 140 airplanes (not sure about the figures), QR something about 60, Etihad about the same, all flying to the same destinations. And than there is still the GULF AIR. The only way to compete is to damp the prices, while maintaining the same service level.
Isn’t it going to be like the bubble, which is about to burst soon. And if its going to happen, who do you think is going to die and who will be there and in which ranking?
I would appreciate your thoughts and comments,
Thanks.


:oh:

[fourplay]

Many noticable changes coming within the industry worldwide over the next 5 - 10 years.

At these current levels it is my opinion that some Australasian carriers will find it difficult to compete with the ME'ens which includes Air New Zealand.

EY and EK are going to be the dominant players in the ME which will spread to other far reaching locations like Asia, Australia and NZ.
What the impact on the european market these MEens will have I am unsure, yet I do feel they will take a huge market share from many carriers worldwide.

EK has already made a large dent in the QF market to and from AU and NZ.

The ME carriers having lower wages, fuel costs and newer A/C will provide them with ever increasing strength against competitors.

I do feel GF may merge or disappear within this time!
It certainly is the market to watch.
(No offence to those in employment at GF)

Having said that... I am no expert, open to others opinions on the subject.

[A300Man-2005]

Yes, Popay, certainly interesting times ahead. It is quite alarming to see the situation in Europe and the USA for example, doing exactly the opposite, and with a propensity for LCC type operations as opposed to Full Service offered by the likes of QR, EK and EY.

British Airways is apparently now considering that its European operations will be re-launced with an LCC business model, similar to LX and EI. However, the carriers in the Middle East are developing and strengthening their full service operations, whilst all flying to more or less the same destinations.

If all goes according to plan, the Middle East will have three or four mega-hubs, in the shape of DOH, DXB and AUH, with an endless procession of A380's flying in and out.

I am also quite sceptical as to how long this expansion can continue, UNLESS the airlines start to make flying more accessible to the masses by doing exactly what you said above - dumping fares.

That, in itself, is in opposition to the full service strategies currently being deployed by the Gulf carriers. I personally think that the Gulf carriers will flex under market demand shortly and adopt business models similar to Gulf Traveller, since the travelling public's expectations in the future will be for lower fares.

So, yes, a semi burst bubble.

[popay]

Dear A 300-2005 Man,
Well, regarding the LCC as such, I think it’s a temporary phenomenon, considered medium terms development in Europe. We are talking about a period something around 10 years, since the major careers like LH or BA started to realize, that this concept has clearly the right to exist on the market. Although major career don’t like this, they rather participate on that process in order not to loose the market shares and the most important to control this development, by holding major shares of LCC, like i.e. Germanwings is owned by LH in Germany, which is a bit different from Easy jet. In fact the European market service, done by major careers, is already adjusted to the LCC in terms of fares politics, while not given up the full capacity to LCC, which obviously allow them negligible margin cut. To cut the story short, I predict, that as soon as the economy recovers in EUR and the people will have more money to spend, they will look more after the quality of service, while the biggest advantage of LOW COST careers, LOW COSTS, will star to disappear due to political instability catapulting the fuel prices in to 51 US per barrel. Then the Europeans are very demanding, see development at Ryan, basically the unions will do there job and force the LCC in to higher costs. The final risk factor is the political system within the EUR, which doesn’t allow the juristic person to be subsidised by the state. LTU was an exception. So the possible outcome will be the merge of the LCC with the majors or bankruptcy. I bet on second option.
Must not be this way, but could be.
At the same time the same factors (higher oil prices-higher income of the gulf states, state subventioned airlines, cheep labours from far east, combined with huge investment and developing of trade and tourism) in the ME will give the biggest economical advantage for gulf careers.
But coming back to original issue “who is going to be number one and who will die in the gulf area”.
Well, taking in to consideration the existing situation and financial potential of gulf states, political involvement of the states, I think, Etihad is going to be number 1, QR number 2, EK number 3. I am talking about the situation in 10 to 15 years.
May be wrong may be not.
Cheers.

:confused:

[sex-yesplease]

A little off topic, but does anyone have any idea when Etihad might drop their requirement for A330/340/B777 type rated+experience?

I have A320 type, 8000TT/5000jet/2000 jet PIC but they rejected my application. They did email me to say that my details would be kept on file in case things should change.

Thanks for your thoughts.