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Panama Jack
17th Feb 2005, 04:48
Interesting articles floating around during the last few days about Brazilian low-cost carrier (LCC) Gol.


Investor's Business Daily
Low-Fare Carrier Hits New Heights In Brazil
Tuesday February 15, 7:00 pm ET
Marilyn Alva


It offers cheaper flights than rivals. It serves peanuts and soft drinks and boasts 25-minute turnarounds. It flies an all-Boeing fleet of new 737s.

If this sounds like a familiar low-cost air carrier in the U.S., it's meant to. Four-year-old Brazilian carrier Gol Intelligent Airlines patterned its business after Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV - News).

It's been a successful strategy. Gol has been profitable since 2002 and now commands about 25% of Brazil's airline market. It's the third largest domestic carrier after Tam and the long-struggling Varig, which also flies overseas.

Since it went public in June at $17 a share, Gol's stock has risen more than 85%.

"They are doing everything right," said Robert Booth, chairman of AvGroup, a Miami, Fla.-based aviation consulting firm that specializes in Latin America.

'Everyone Can Fly'

Gol -- which in Portuguese means "goal" -- flies to 37 cities in Brazil, a country that is nearly as big as the continental U.S. Most of its 170 million citizens couldn't afford a plane ticket until Gol came along with cheap advanced fares.

Many of Gol's late night red-eye flights cost about the same as a bus ticket. The company's advertising slogan: "Gol. Here everyone can fly."

Cut-rate fares between 1 a.m. and 5 a.m. are part of the airline's strategy to lure more passengers. It's working. The flights operate at 92% of capacity or more, and about 15% of passengers have never flown on a plane before.

"They're getting people who've never flown before off the buses and automobile," Booth said.

Gol's top management knows all about Brazil's bus business. Founder and chairman Constantino de Oliveira owns one of Brazil's biggest bus companies, Aurea Group.

He had long wanted to start a low fare and low cost airline in Brazil. In 2000 -- a year before Gol's launch -- he seized the moment by grabbing pilots and other furloughed employees from major carrier Vasp, which was downsizing.

The regulatory climate also had eased by then.

De Oliveira and his son -- Constantino Jr., Gol's chief executive -- visited operations at Southwest and JetBlue (NasdaqNM:JBLU - News) in the U.S. and easyJet in Europe. Southwest had the biggest impact, says Richard Lark, Gol's chief financial officer.

The "Gol Effect" -- like the "Southwest Effect" -- has caused air passenger growth to explode in markets it's entered.

"The first five air markets we started operations in 2001 have grown twice the national average," Lark said. "Our growth depends more on adding aircraft than GDP growth."

Gol's leased fleet of 29 Boeing 737s will get a boost next year. In early February, the company announced that it increased to 63 the number of 737-800s it plans to buy outright from Boeing. Gol previously planned to buy 43 planes.

The first deliveries are set to start next year.

Managing Costs

Long flying days, coupled with fast turnarounds, help leverage fixed costs over more revenue-producing miles. The airplanes themselves represent about 50% of Gol's costs, Lark says.

Unlike the U.S. air market, where labor costs account for as much as 40% of overall costs, airline labor costs in Brazil make up less than 10% of the total.

"In Brazil, if you can manage your aircraft well you have a good chance of keeping costs low," Lark said.

Almost 70% of Gol's revenue comes from business travelers. Since business travelers are not as price-sensitive as leisure customers, Gol can pass through 70% of its fuel-cost increases through fare hikes, Lark says.

Brazil's business travelers also generate higher profits for Gol since they're willing to pay for convenience and last-minute travel.

"Our prices are 20% to 25% less than competitors on average," Lark said. "But in many of the most competitive markets where there is high demand by business travelers, our value proposition is more or less the same."

Gol's earnings in last year's third quarter rose 52% from the prior year to 41 cents a share. Revenue gained 31% to $181 million.

Analysts polled by First Call estimate full-year 2004 earnings of $1.45 a share. They expect earnings this year will grow 26% to $1.82.

Gol plans to expand service to major cities across South America over the next three years.

It began service to Argentina in December and expects to start service to Bolivia by June. The firm has no plans to fly beyond South America.

"There are 500 million people living in all of Latin America," Booth said. "Less than 10% of the population uses air service, so the potential is enormous."

http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/fi/pr/43022.gif

Low-Fare Carrier hits new heights in Brazil (http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/050215/newamer_1.html)


Are any forum members familiar with operations at Gol? In competing with Brazilian national airlines, do you think they are a sustainable operation? What are their working conditions? For a Latin American LCC, are employees paid similar to what other Brazilian airline employees are paid, or is renumeration in the form of bags of peanuts 2X a month?

bombinha
26th Feb 2005, 22:39
Hi Panama jack,
I am one of the pilots who lost the job at VASP besides to have a garanteed postion at GOL I decided to come to US as I was a dual citizen as well. Several of my coleagues went to GOL as they were the only one hiring in 2000/01.
GOL pay is not great is below TAM that in Brazil they were well known as to set the bar low but GOL got their place and set the bar even lowest. Constatino JR. was playboy not long a go and just burning his father money now he is a CEO on an airline and tretas the pilots pretty much like the bus drivers he is already used with they have no benefits not even a health insurance no union as well if they try to get unionized probably will loose tehir job.
By Brazilian labor law all employees are mandatory to contibute one day of their salary once an year to a general union but that doesn't mean a comapny is unionized as we consider there VARIG unionised because they have tehir APVAR association as VASP used to have APVASP. TAM is not unionized also.
Upgrade forget about it as they usualy hire captain direct form streets postponing F/O's upgrading aledging tha this way they keep their insurance cost lower hiring already experienced captains. If you need any more info contact me. They are profitable because they pay very low salaries and they operate a maintenance cheap airplane, that the workhorse boeing. TAM with airbuses has a little higher cost due the bus be more problematic and the operation of the fokkers in the past (cheap airplane expensive maintenance). Varig was always probelmatic and never stoped due government protections that government denies it gives.
But work for an airline in US is even worst as here they pay even lower salaries and treat you like $.... Plus the cost of living so expensive that eve if they pay me 10k a month I would never have the same life style as making 2K a month in Brazil. Life is better there but unemployment there is to high 27% so that why pilots have to accept so low salaries.

Panama Jack
27th Feb 2005, 05:01
Thanks for your reply bombinha. I also lost my job at an airline a couple of years ago, and am sorry to hear you lost your job at VASP, knowing how difficult something like this can be.

I know a pilot who used to work at TAM and told me how low their wages were and what his resulting standard of living was in Brazil. It sounds to me like LCC in Latin America takes on even more frightening dimensions.

Sounds to me like many LCC's have been able to take advantage of the very favorable supply/demand relationship (many pilots on the market, few jobs) and I wonder if in the end this really is a sustainable model long term, unless of course they start footing the bill for ab-initio training. The GOL operations sounds a little bit like Ryanair, but I guess that abuse knows no borders.

latinaviation
3rd Mar 2005, 12:46
GOL's stock has dropped since then. It was becoming too much of a "me, too" stock, with seemingly everyone adding it to their portfolio. Last week, some brokerages warned the stock price was too high and it started to retreat.

GOL is a Wall St. darling because of low costs, incredible growth potential and that their CFO is an ex-Goldman Sach vice president, and gringo, who knows the capital markets very well.

Some of what has been said above is starting to permeate into the minds of bankers. It will be interesting to see how it works out.