Command - When will YOU get it?

[St_Paul_Island]

I was curious to check the actual figures for command upgrades over a ten year period. This should be long enough to iron out the inevitable ups and downs. Command upgrades each year were:

2000: 15 (estimated)
1999: 14 (actual)
1998: 34 (actual)
1997: 30 (actual)
1996: 28 (actual)
1995: 15 (actual)
1994: 46 (actual)
1993: 32 (actual)
1992: 28 (actual)
1991: 47 (actual)

Average: 29 commands per year

As at beginning of 2000, there were 858 on the seniority lists waiting for their turn at command. Add to this about 40-50 to account for new joiners in 2000 if you are joining CX soon.

This applies to any fleet or position that you join, ie if you join the cargo outfit as a First Officer you do not bypass anyone on the seniority list. You wait your turn like everybody else.

There are no new aircraft orders at all. Even if a big order were announced tomorrow it will take a few years to be fulfilled and for aircraft to be delivered. There is no retirement hump. So the above figures look about right for the forseeable future.

Bottom line: Join tomorrow and it is 31 years to command (~900 positions divided by 29 upgrades per year). Yuch!

[Midnight Rambler]

Thanks SPI, I feel a whole lot better now. I thought I had a year or so to go but having read your post I can take comfort in the fact that I will never see a command here even if I live to be 65 and am still working for CX.

I think I'll go and shoot myself.........or perhaps you're saying I did that when I joined??

[Übersturmfuhrer]

Yet the recruiters are STILL telling new joiners that it's 8 - 9 years to command. Could they be telling Porky Pies? Would they actually lie to new hires in order to get them in? Do they lack that much integrity? Naah, they wouldn't be SO dishonest, would they?

[Guru]

Well, I was told during my interview: 2 1/2 yrs as an S/O, 7 yrs F/O and then...... This didn't just came from an HR personnel but someone quite high(near the top?) up the flight crew hierachy. No mention of the queue...

[BusyB]

I understand the plan is for 71 commands in 2001.

[nudger]

I've heard numbers closly approximating BusyB's numbers for 2001. That is about max that this system can produce right now!.

Even if we double SPI's numbers to a very optimistic 58 per year it still is not close to what recruiting is quoting!

900/ 58 = 15.5 years has got to be closer than anything you'll hear from recruiting or mgmt.

[St_Paul_Island]

I forgot that significant numbers of F/Os and S/Os leave each year. Anecdotally 30-50 per year. So that dramatically reduces the time to command, because in each year there would be an average of 29 commands plus say 30 leaving, resulting in the queue shrinking, and so about 15 years to upgrade, approximately. This is a two-edged sword, however, because if pay, rostering and conditions improve dramatically then no-one would leave and we are back to ~30 years to upgrade again.

Another factor is that there are 40-45 F/Os that did not sign over to the CX seniority list. So they will be offerred commands on a 1 for 3 (or 4?) basis well ahead of anyone else. So add that number to the ~900 ahead of you on the seniority list.

Lastly, more bad news is that CX can solve its training problem by changing the retirement age from 55 to 60 at a stroke, adding a further five years to the wait for upgrade.

"71 commands in 2001" - I've heard similar before. Do you remember just before ASL that KB told us of 180 commands over the following three years? That came to nothing. About 14 months ago didn't Crews News talk about 50 commands for 2000? Not much happened though. It could happen in 2001 I suppose but I'll believe it when I see it.

Sorry for the bad news, but the data speaks for itself.

[This message has been edited by St_Paul_Island (edited 06 January 2001).]

[Tom Tipper]

No it doesn't. SPI, the future is not always linked to the past. Colleagues' command is imminent and it is 9 yrs since joining.
The future will be much faster with the growth experienced at present - 12 Airbusses this year. Your post is irrelevant, just look at Emirates or Dragon to see what this expansion does! What went before is not necessarily indicative of what will happen.

[fossil fuel]

Sorry Tom, I have to disagree. I think SPI's post is very relevant. You are a fool if you don't carefully look at the numbers. Yes, there are many variables, and a large expansion would improve things significantly, but Cathay is a long haul airline which means there is basically two FO's for every Captain.
Even if this airline were to achieve it's dream of 100 airframes (highly unlikely) in 6-7 years, this would require only 400 captains plus retirements. If you join today, you are close to 1000 from command. So best case scenario, in 6-7 years, you will still have 400-500 numbers to command, and with a stable fleet of 100 aircraft, it will be a long, long time.
I have no idea where the interviewers pull some of these numbers from.

[Dropp the Pilot]

Just in case you feel like a move, my time to command at Emirates was 23. Months.

[Dogsbolux]

Funny you should say that. Am waiting for a firm start date. Am not the only FH'er going to join.

Way to go!

[SMOC]

Hey Dogsbolux, when you get there can you (if you ever find yourself on pprune again) report back as to what cost of living /lifestyle/shopping-supermarkets and pollution is like. Basically the whole package vs CX and HKG.

How true is the description of Dubai at.
http://emirates.com/destguide/destguide_uae.asp

As you can guess I have never been to Dubai.

Cheers


[This message has been edited by SMOC (edited 07 January 2001).]

[St_Paul_Island]

BTT

[YPJT_Noodle1Departure]

SMOC

I have been to DXB numerous times as I have lived in the GULF for 10yrs (Kuwait,Dubai, Bahrain and Qatar)

Obviously EK will have hyped up the place a little as any promoter would do.

Basically DXB is a nice place (best in the region) very liberal, alcohol in the hotel bars/restaurants, nite clubs ect etc.
Golf, flying clubs,cinemas, shopping galore, beaches, scuba diving, fitness clubs...its all there. All new up to date facilities.
One slight draw back with the whole region would have to be the wx...sticky and hot, particulary June/July/Aug time...Dust storms aren't too great either!
Best time would be april/may time and oct/nov time around 25-28c avg.

Cost of living is very low as are general goods from the shops....electrical/perfumes/tobbaco are all cheap with loads of variety...ohhh and fuel is around 5p/litre! Most people have maids/gardeners again not expensive!

Regarding EK on salary and package..can't comment as I dont' work for them. I believe its quite good.

As with any place its what YOU make of it.
It could take some adjustment from the western world, but if the Middle East is your destination DXB is the perfect break in to the EXPAT lifestyle.....booze booze and more booze with a little beach!
Happy hunting

JT

[This message has been edited by YPJT_Noodle1Departure (edited 20 January 2001).]

[SMOC]

Thanks for the reply Noodle, I'm outta here as soon as I can, cheers.

[foxtrot3]

SPI, forgive my ignorance but Im new to this game! You mentioned that 30-50 percent 'left' during the S/O and F/O stages. Can I ask why this is? Greener pastures, redundant??

[St_Paul_Island]

BTT for the benefit of a question asked on another thread.

[BlunderBus]

Of course you're all forgetting the 100% attrition rate CX will have when they train up their 'B' scale Captains only to lose them immediately to the asian or overseas contact companies that provide double the pay,real rosters and 12-13 block days off per month!..market forces my dear chap....