Running out of juice

[solowflyer]

Was watching some program on the box the other day, and had this guy on talking about world oil supply. He reckoned that the world was about halfway through it's oil reserves, and predicted that at the current rate of growth and usage these reserves will be used up within 20 years.

Don't know about you but got me thinking about the effects this will have on the aviation industry. Has any aircraft producer given any thought of what will happen when the juce drys up? Maybe airbus are onto the right idear by haulling more less frequently, and could see even larger aircraft on the drawing boards.

We are already seeing the effects of the looming shortage as the prices at the pump are sky rocketing as OPEC community strive to make as much as they can while they can.

I think we all need to really open our eyes as this is a real problem that will not go away.:ugh:

[Ultralights]

plenty of natural gas floating around! as the $$ of oilr rises it will force companies and universities to find new sources of fuel! fuel cell cars will rule the roads of the future, or hydrogen powered, there will be alternatives! i just wish they would produce as much as possible now, so it will bring better fuels closer! as we run out! not to mention the effects on the middle east after the world no longer needs their oil!

alternative are already in use for diesel! Bio diesel! made from vegetable oil! with a few Million and good research, im sure it could be used in all applications including aircraft. diesel engines in the EU are far more advanced compared to aussie and japanese vehicles.

[Kornholio]

world no longer needs their oil What a glorious day it will be. Bring it on.............

BUT....... they will have the bomb before then and major shiite will have gone down world-wide as a result. I'm picturing a cross between Mad Max and Escape From NY.

Start stashing tins of baked beans and camp pie and oil up your shotty TODAY.

[Wanikiba_pilot]

Running out of juice...

Current reserves of natural gas and coal are still abundant and technology has been in development to synthesize liquid fuel (petrol and Avtur) from those raw materials. Price is the factor...interesting to note that as price of oil rises, these technologies should stabilize the price of fuel as there will be alternatives rather than just extracting it from the great sand pit.

On the flip side, there are still "significant" reserves of oil around, just depends on how much you want to spend to get it (oil shale and deep sea deposits, let alone that which is not discovered yet).

Take the info from the doom and gloom stories, but use judgement as to the validity of the conclusion...

[Johhny Utah]

The doomsday theorists were proven wrong when the world population was ever increasing throughout the 1970's & 1980's (theoretically causing a global food shortage) yet the world still managed to feed itself. Why? Primarily technology and more efficient farming methods.

Much the same thing will happen with the worlds oil reserves. Deposits which were simply not economic to be tapped when the price was at ~$30 per barrel (due to costs of production being close to that level, if not more) are suddenly viable alternatives when the price per barrel is closer to $50. Sure, for these to be viable means the price has to remain high, as opposed to dropping back to the ~$30 level, but it does mean that there's no real shortgae of reserves...

[tinpis]

Good ...everyone will hafta stay home.

[OzExpat]

We all know that there is oil in the ground, underneath the surface of the planet. I've often wondered what is left behind, in that location, after the oil has been extracted. Are we leaving great empty and unsupported caverns underground, where there was once a huge pool of oil?

Is oil extraction de-stablising the surface of the earth? Is there a connection between this and the movement of various plates around the planet that result in earthquakes - and the occasional tsunami?

Maybe I should just have something more to drink and forget about this line of thought... :uhoh:

[Wanikiba_pilot]

Relax OzExpat,

Have another Lager....
Water replaces the oil. Oil is usually held under pressure by non-porous reservoir caps by a water table underneath(crude oil is less dense than water). Also, the reservoirs are more like porous sandstone than cavernous space. A well penetrates the non porous reservoir cap and the oil flows up to ground level. As the well gets older, there is considerably more water in the oil, and eventually it is mostly just water with dissolved natural gas. After the oil company is done with the reservoir, it is caped off and left pretty much full of water.
PS- This is not drinkable water..highly corrosive and full of dissolved hydrocarbons.

WP

[Boney]

There has been alot of speculation on this subject for years. From what I have read, oil will run out about 2060, but Iraq (the worlds second largest reserve) still has only about 20% of it's reserve tapped. Not for long hey Bush?

Afganistan and countries to the north have massive natural gas reserves which are pretty much untapped. Not for long hey Bush?

The Great Barrier Reef also has massive oil reserves underneath it and thanks to global warming and general human interference will most likely be completely dead in the second half of this century.

Not long now? - "Australia, give up your weapons of Mass Destraction"

[OzExpat]

Thanks for the explanation W_p. Very simple and easy to follow. I'm duly relaxing with some suitable liquid refreshment! :ok:

[Ultralights]

i remember reading a report not long ago (in the last few months) the the Great barrier reef is actually e getting bigger and growing faster, as global warming is warming waters at a greater depth allowing the coral base to grow into those areas!

[FatEric]

http://www.peakoil.com/forums.html

[pullock]

As I oversee many TENS of tonnes of kerosene being oumped in to the few aeroplanes that I servive each day, I often stand to contemplate how many THOUSANDS of times this amount are being pumped as I stand ther and watch.

Make no mistake that at that rate the reserves of fuel certainly have an end.

There are many alternative fuels getting around, but the long and short of it is that there is no replacement for Kero because the amount of usable energy per kilogram of usable fuel in kero has no alternative.

Natural gas for example produces less energy per kilogram than kero. It's not a replacement. Neither is bio diesel which has or waste vegetable oil, which have a similar energy-weight density - because there's simply not enough of the stuff - it's harder to get than oil where theres a demand.

Oil companies have been pumping sea water down end of life wells for years to extend their life.

Ethanol comes nowhere near petrol let alone kero.

Fuel Cells run on hydrogen. The problem is that Hydrogen is one of the most environmentally destructive fuels available because it is uncontainable as the smallest element, and it redily migrates to the upper atmosphere as the lightest atom, where it happily combines with Ozone. Don't believe the fuel cell propoganda - they are hiding the ozone problem. Nothing can contain Hidrogen.

The simple fact is after kero is depleted - aviation is gone. The industry is hiding that.

Why?

Most businesses don't need to prove profitibility beyond five years to get finance.

Simple.

[Wanikiba_pilot]

"The simple fact is after kero is depleted - aviation is gone. The industry is hiding that."

It is possible to synthsize fuels such as petrol, kero or diesel etc. It just takes energy, energy that mother nature used to provide through the conditions underground when crude oil was formed.

Although I agree with you that cars, households and other surface based energy users will need to change what they use for fuel, whether it be Hydrogen (maybe not...your points gave me something to think about), electric, or methane (Natural gas), aviation will most likely need to stick to the liquid hydrocarbon model that is presently used. High energy per volume, easy to contain, relatively safe and easily carried. It is difficult to foresee a replacement for this fuel source without a major redevelopment ($$$) of the propulsion systems of aircraft. Probably not feasable.

Using natural gas as the hydrocarbon stock as opposed to crude oil takes more energy to synthesize keroscene hydrocarbon chains, but it is possible. It can also be done with coal. The energy source to provide this "synthesis" energy is the question(fusion-not developed yet, nuclear, and for the foreseebale future methane) and it's cost the feasability of when might be implemented.

Perhaps the future will see aviation fuel factories producing kero from a simple hydrocarbon stock(methane) in a more complex refining/synthesizing process than present. On the other hand, new energy sources for surface transport and households/industry could relieve the demand on crude and make it available for aviation and other specialised uses.

[TIMMEEEE]

I remember some time ago reading about a leading scientist in the 1870's predicting that by 1920 there would be something like 14 feet of horse manure piled up along the streets due to massive expected transport needs!

I guess the man never saw Gottfried Daimler coming!