Wirraway
26th Jan 2005, 14:23
Thu "The Australian"
Airlines face labour crisis
Steve Creedy
January 27, 2005
AIRLINES in the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East face a looming labour shortage as strong growth creates 95,000 new jobs by 2010, a new study has warned.
Projections by the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation suggest airlines will need an average of 19,000 new employees a year over the next five years - more than eight times the level needed in recent years.
CAPA calculates that aircraft orders already in place for the region indicate the need for 10,048 pilots, 21,352 cabin crew, 22,608 ground handling staff and 15,700 maintenance workers.
CAPA says the growth requirements will be further inflated by an increase in retirements from an average of 1-2 per cent a year to 3 per cent in some work categories by 2007 as baby boomers reach retirement age.
"The alarm bells are ringing in a number of countries," CAPA chief consultant Ian Thomas told an outlook conference in Singapore this week.
A labour shortage would have serious repercussions for airlines, slowing services and route development, constraining growth and increasing employee costs.
Mr Thomas has warned that manpower shortages in critical areas such as maintenance and engineering could lead to a fall in safety standards.
"The fall-off in service and growth levels could rebound on local tourism, with especially strong impacts on the economies of countries reliant on the travel sector," he said.
A regional breakdown shows north Asia, including China and Japan, would lead the demand with a 42.2 per cent increase in employee requirements, followed by India-Middle East (29.8 per cent) and southeast Asia (22.6 per cent).
China alone estimates it needs 12,000 additional pilots by 2010 to accommodate its growth plans and, although China trains 900 pilots a year, CAPA's report notes this still falls short of requirements for more than 2000 a year.
The reports also points to the need for foreign recruitment in India, problems in Indonesia where existing pilots are being lured to better paid work and moves by Emirates to take student pilots straight from high school.
Demand in Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific is predicted to be relatively low, offset by a pilot surplus of 300 former Ansett pilots and the presence of 200 foreign pilots who had emigrated and converted to local licences in the past two years.
But Australia is identified as one of several countries facing a shortfall of licensed aircraft maintenance engineers with the situation likely to worsen.
While CAPA concedes some steps to address labour shortages are already being taken, Mr Thomas said it was clear substantially more needed to be done. However, the centre's solutions are unlikely to play well with airline unions.
"The established legacy carriers must review their work practices and productivity levels, and investigate new operating models which ease some of the pressure on workforce requirements by flying aircraft longer and harder and aircraft configurations which reduce the numbers of cabin crew needed," Mr Thomas said.
The looming labour crisis was a dark spot in a generally optimistic outlook that predicted 10 per cent growth across the region after airlines in Asia and the Middle East achieved a record $US3 billion ($3.9 billion) profit in 2004.
Describing the Asia-Pacific as an "oasis in a global desert of bad news", CAPA's analysis of 21 countries in four geographic regions predicted last year's robust growth and profitability would consolidate in 2005 at a more subdued level and establish the Asia-Pacific as key target for major investment in service expansion and new operations.
The centre also marked 2004 as a watershed year for airline liberalisation, with the signing of China's first open skies agreement and long-awaited moves towards freeing up the system in India.
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Airlines face labour crisis
Steve Creedy
January 27, 2005
AIRLINES in the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East face a looming labour shortage as strong growth creates 95,000 new jobs by 2010, a new study has warned.
Projections by the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation suggest airlines will need an average of 19,000 new employees a year over the next five years - more than eight times the level needed in recent years.
CAPA calculates that aircraft orders already in place for the region indicate the need for 10,048 pilots, 21,352 cabin crew, 22,608 ground handling staff and 15,700 maintenance workers.
CAPA says the growth requirements will be further inflated by an increase in retirements from an average of 1-2 per cent a year to 3 per cent in some work categories by 2007 as baby boomers reach retirement age.
"The alarm bells are ringing in a number of countries," CAPA chief consultant Ian Thomas told an outlook conference in Singapore this week.
A labour shortage would have serious repercussions for airlines, slowing services and route development, constraining growth and increasing employee costs.
Mr Thomas has warned that manpower shortages in critical areas such as maintenance and engineering could lead to a fall in safety standards.
"The fall-off in service and growth levels could rebound on local tourism, with especially strong impacts on the economies of countries reliant on the travel sector," he said.
A regional breakdown shows north Asia, including China and Japan, would lead the demand with a 42.2 per cent increase in employee requirements, followed by India-Middle East (29.8 per cent) and southeast Asia (22.6 per cent).
China alone estimates it needs 12,000 additional pilots by 2010 to accommodate its growth plans and, although China trains 900 pilots a year, CAPA's report notes this still falls short of requirements for more than 2000 a year.
The reports also points to the need for foreign recruitment in India, problems in Indonesia where existing pilots are being lured to better paid work and moves by Emirates to take student pilots straight from high school.
Demand in Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific is predicted to be relatively low, offset by a pilot surplus of 300 former Ansett pilots and the presence of 200 foreign pilots who had emigrated and converted to local licences in the past two years.
But Australia is identified as one of several countries facing a shortfall of licensed aircraft maintenance engineers with the situation likely to worsen.
While CAPA concedes some steps to address labour shortages are already being taken, Mr Thomas said it was clear substantially more needed to be done. However, the centre's solutions are unlikely to play well with airline unions.
"The established legacy carriers must review their work practices and productivity levels, and investigate new operating models which ease some of the pressure on workforce requirements by flying aircraft longer and harder and aircraft configurations which reduce the numbers of cabin crew needed," Mr Thomas said.
The looming labour crisis was a dark spot in a generally optimistic outlook that predicted 10 per cent growth across the region after airlines in Asia and the Middle East achieved a record $US3 billion ($3.9 billion) profit in 2004.
Describing the Asia-Pacific as an "oasis in a global desert of bad news", CAPA's analysis of 21 countries in four geographic regions predicted last year's robust growth and profitability would consolidate in 2005 at a more subdued level and establish the Asia-Pacific as key target for major investment in service expansion and new operations.
The centre also marked 2004 as a watershed year for airline liberalisation, with the signing of China's first open skies agreement and long-awaited moves towards freeing up the system in India.
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