PDA

View Full Version : Solar Radiation - How many transatlantic trips are safe?


SecurID
21st Jan 2005, 21:40
Based on the following information, how many trips across the pond are considered safe and how many do you actually do?

I figure that we can only fly a maximum of about ten a year based on the information below... I am on my third already this month! Interestingly, latitude has a lesser effect than I thought.
But with further reading it gets worse. As radiation is present at all areas around the globe why do we only concentrate on transatlantic crossings? Surely the information below is related to any area and consequently at an average of 700 flying hours a year we are being exposed to levels as high as 4400uSv per annum, 4.4 times the recomended maximum for a ground based worker exposed to radiation at work. And we do this for careers as long as 40 years? With global terms and conditions reducing, why are we even considering doing this job anymore?

Q: When flying on a commercial jet airliner at high altitudes (i.e. transcontinental or transatlantic), what is the x-ray exposure per hour?

A: The radiation exposure to passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft is caused not only by x rays (photons) but also by a variety of energetic particles such as neutrons, protons, electrons, muons, and pions. These radiation types are produced as a result of the interaction with the Earth's atmosphere of high-energy particles (primarily protons and alpha particles) that come from a variety of cosmic sources in our galaxy, with a lesser contribution from our own sun. The galactic component of this incoming cosmic radiation is always present; the solar contribution varies in intensity over an approximately eleven-year cycle. In fact, the galactic component is greatest at solar minimum and is reduced at solar maximum by solar particle interactions with irregularities in the magnetic field associated with the "solar wind." Additionally, there is a significant variation of dose rate with altitude and to a lesser extent with geomagnetic latitude. During the last period of "solar minimum," at an altitude of 30,000 feet, the dose rate was about 4 uSv per hour at the latitudes of North America and Western Europe. During solar maximum, which is occurring now, the dose rate fell to around 3 uSv per hour. For the higher altitude of 40,000 feet, the dose rates were about 8 uSv per hour at solar minimum and now are about 6.5 uSv per hour. To put this into perspective, the legal value of "maximum permissible dose" for members of the public exposed to radiation originating from ground-based industrial or medical facilities is 1,000 uSv per year. So an airline passenger flying at an average altitude of 35,000 feet for a period of about 160 hours (75,000 miles) during solar minimum would receive an exposure at about the limit of the current acceptable level. Of course, most people who fly 75,000 miles a year or more do so because of their professional responsibilities as business travelers. It is my contention that the almost 450,000 individuals in the United States who fall into that category should be classified formally as occupationally exposed workers and that they should receive appropriate education about their exposures, particularly if they may be, or are about to become, pregnant. In addition to the general cosmic-ray "background" discussed above, there are rare solar particle events ("solar storms") that can significantly elevate the dose rates at airliner altitudes. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates that in an eleven-year solar cycle there could be up to three events that might produce a dose rate of up to 200 uSv per hour for a few hours at airliner altitudes. The most recent significant particle event occurred on July 14, 2000. Although an exact value of the maximum dose rate has not yet been established, my estimate is that it was at least 50 uSv per hour extending over the relatively long period of almost a full day. Robert J. Barish, Ph.D., CHP, DABR, DABMP, FAAPM

beerdrinker
22nd Jan 2005, 06:29
Was never too worried about Trans Atlantic flights but on Trans Siberian flights never flew above FL 330. Took extra gas if flight planned above 330.

RolandPullthrough
22nd Jan 2005, 06:46
If you want the science rather than the rhetoric, click here:

http://jag.cami.jccbi.gov./cariprofile.asp

and calculate it for yourself. You can also download the more advanced version and make more accurate calculations using waypoint, altitude etc.

The exposure level accepted for 'radiation exposed workers' i.e. us, varies depending upon to whose rules you beholden. The Euratom directive recommends not more than 20 mSv, whilst the US Dept of Energy use 50mSv. You can find the recommend maximums online also although I don't have the URL's handy.

Happy frying!

stagger
22nd Jan 2005, 08:54
A quick search of the internet reveals that the "rhetoric" in the first post comes from the website of the Health Physics Society (http://hps.org/) so I think it's fair to say it comes from scientists.

The FAA calculator appears to give exposure estimates not very discrepant from those in HPS information.

The HPS statement simply suggests that people who are frequently exposed due to flying should be "classified formally as occupationally exposed workers" and educated accordingly.

However, looking at the numbers it seems unlikely that anyone would exceed the recommended limits for "'radiation exposed workers" by flying (using either limit).

Even 700 hours at 8 uSv per hour is only 5.6mSv

DingerX
22nd Jan 2005, 10:55
Look at the board: they're all either A) Academics from major US universities B) State employees in the radiation health sector (as with the president-elect) or C) Employed at major US government nuclear research facilities (Los Alamos National Laboratory and Oak Ridge). So the organization's credentials hold up.

BizJetJock
22nd Jan 2005, 11:22
But to put these figures in perspective, the natural background count in my native Aberdeen (built on and of granite) is reputed to exceed these doses!

I'll just see if my other head is awake yet......:)

GlueBall
22nd Jan 2005, 12:29
And nobody's shirt has been ripped being dragged aboard an aeroplane and made to fly.

wiggy
22nd Jan 2005, 13:06
Be aware that it's geo -magnetic latitude we are talking about here, not "true" latitude...or put very simply your distance from the magnetic North Pole. The "worse" routes for Dose Rates are those across Northern Canada. On the Siberian routes you tend to get lower rates but for longer......
(edited to add:)
FWIW, three or four years back I calculated my exposure for all my flights, ( B744, European based, flying a mix of Transatlantic, African and Far East sectors) for a year, using the CARI program..My exposure to galactic cosmic radiation for the year was, from memory, around 5 mSv, nowhere near the European limit of 20 mSv mentioned elsewhere, however the version of CARI did not calculate exposure to flare events.
As far as I'm aware, IMHO, the jury is still out on this - sadly plenty of people who never go near an aircraft die of cancer, very roughly 30% of the general population in the UK, so personally I'm not convinced there is, as yet, a widespread radition induced problem. However with aircraft like the 777 and the Airbuses climbing straight up to FL350 plus after takeoff and the bizjet guys cruise around at FL450 plus maybe the stats will begin to show something a few years down the road.
OTOH we could all ( well Brits anyway) opt to be Earthbound and instead of flying, struggle daily with the endless commute around the M25, breathing in all those lovely fumes, suffering raised blood pressure and having an fairly good chance of dying in a car crash - it's up to you!

GS-Alpha
22nd Jan 2005, 16:29
Looking at the Health Physics Society website, it seems that the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and the FAA, recommend an occupational limit of 20 mSv per year. However, the limit for the travelling public is just 1 mSv per year. Not quite sure why we can take 20 times joe public's limit but there you go.

But based on 900 hours flying a year, we can take an average of 22 uSv per hour using the occupational limit. It all boils down to which limit do you trust?

Incidentally the limit during pregnancy appears to be 0.5 mSv per month, up to a max of 2 mSv over the full term of the pregnancy. This means you can take an average of 6.6 uSv per hour max, and you can only keep it up for 4 months then you have used up your quota. If you average above 6.6 uSv during your first month of pregnancy, your baby is at risk, so it seems you need to stop as soon as you are aware you are pregnant, if you suspect your dosage is above this.

RolandPullthrough
23rd Jan 2005, 08:37
Wiggy,

"however the version of CARI did not calculate exposure to flare events"

I think that you may find that CARI does take flares into account by the use of the 'heliocentric potential'. It's a restrospective factor which is used to cater for the variation of the rate of cosmic radiation. If you look at this site:

http://www.cami.jccbi.gov/AAM-600/Radiation/600radio.html

you can get more background info. You can also subrscribe to the space weather alerting service via a link from that page and then really scare yourself when the sun starts whooping it up on its 11 year solar flare cycle.

There is an aeromed forum hosted elsewhere, where this topic pops up occasionally. From my own research and understanding, I believe that I'm much more likely to die from stress caused by worrying about very low probability events than from the event itself. Life's a dice game after all! Unfortunately, in aviation the game seems to be Craps.

BTW, proportion of western males who die from cancer ~23.5%. Women are a little less likely. However, like many other 'facts' this number varies depending upon your source.

Ontariotech
23rd Jan 2005, 14:31
If it's that bad....is anybody keeping stats on retired, or still flying pilots rates of cancer?

RolandPullthrough
23rd Jan 2005, 15:22
I may have been a little vague in my previous, but the 23.5% relates to the general population. The only long term study of which I'm aware, that has looked at pilot mortality showed a ~24% cancer rate but a much increased risk of melanoma and a particular type of leukemia.

It was a fairly sizeable study investigation ~10,000 pilots. However, given that pilots are generally helathier than the average Joe, the cancer rate could be expected to be lower, particularly, with our regular medicals. Swings and roundabouts? Who knows?

(Edited because I can't type!)

innuendo
23rd Jan 2005, 17:53
Here is some further reading on the subject.
http://cf.alpa.org/internet/alp/2000/janinflight.htm

Ontariotech, there was a study done by someone from RMC (Royal Military College) in Kingston about 12 years ago. I am not sure how widespread his study was but he was interested in flying on Northern routes. A number of Vancouver crew with Air Canada who did almost exclusively YVR-LHR flying participated. They carried monitors and kept records. I met him at one point and in a nutshell, he said that the exposure was below the allowable maximums established at the time, for those in fields that involved radiation.
As far as monitoring crews for unusual rates of mortality I have not heard of any, although if there was a case made on facts, it would be a pretty hot potato.
If it is worth anything, I once asked our pension committee chairman if the actuarial figures showed that the pilot retiree group were not lasting as long as the general populace. He said that if anything, it was the opposite. I'm sure that is an overly simplistic conclusion about the subject but the retirees are not really dropping like flies.

stagger
23rd Jan 2005, 22:24
There are conflicting findings regarding whether or not pilots have an increased risk of cancer in general. But there are number of studies that have shown that pilots are at increased risk of melanoma in particular (and it doesn't seem to just be due to the sun-bathing opportunities that can sometimes go with the job).

Take a look at this...

Rafnsson et al (2000). Risk factors for cutaneous malignant melanoma among aircrews and a random sample of the population (http://oem.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/full/60/11/815)

semperfido
23rd Jan 2005, 22:44
for many years we wore radiation exposure badges supplied by these people.

http://www.healthycrew.org/crewexp.shtml

wiggy
24th Jan 2005, 21:29
RollandPullthrough

Hi

I did my little exercise with CARI about 5 years ago and at the time the helio-centric potentials were only available (from the web) in monthly "blocks", i.e. all you had was an average for the month, so I'm not sure it could cope with the short lived spikes you get from a solar event; however that was five years back so if CARI now can factor flares in I bow to your greater knowledge.

(added at edit) Oops, yes you are right about the "casualty rate", my mistake, what I should have said is that roughly 1 in 3 in the UK will suffer from cancer in some point in their lives and roughly 1 in 4 will die from it....and on that happy thought...
Rgds

beerdrinker
25th Jan 2005, 06:40
Go to this FODCOM:

http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/33/FOD200008.pdf.

This directs you to:

http://www.legislation.hmso.gov.uk/si/si2000/20001104.htm


This says:

This Order implements article 42 of Council Directive 96/29/Euratom of 13 May 1996 which lays down basic safety standards for the protection of the health of workers and the general public against the dangers arising from ionising radiation (OJ No L 159, 29.6.96, p. 1).

The Order requires an undertaking established in the United Kingdom which operates aircraft to take appropriate measures to assess the in flight exposure to cosmic radiation of air crew who are liable to be subject to cosmic radiation in excess of 1 milliSievert per year, to take into account the assessed exposure when organising work schedules and to inform the workers concerned of the health risks their work involves.

Additional provision is made for air crew who are pregnant so that the dose to the foetus will be as low as reasonably achievable and unlikely to exceed 1 milliSievert during the remainder of the pregnancy.

The Order also requires an undertaking to keep a record of the assessed exposure to cosmic radiation, to produce that record on request to the Civil Aviation Authority and to supply a copy on request to the air crew concerned.




In other words all operators in the UK have to keep records of the amount of radiation crews are exposed to and to let crews have that info.

goinggrey
25th Jan 2005, 20:13
Good one Wiggy,
Seeing the wood for the trees (sadly but true)