How long is "long"?

[Mr Nice guy]

Hello everybody, I've been hearing so much around here that it takes all too long for a pilot to get a command with Cathay. Whilst I believe that this is the case, just how long is long?
Fresh S/O ------> Captain=X years?

I know there's no definite exact answer, but I'd just like a general idea.

Thanks in advance for the info.!

[jtr]

Okay, I`ll give my 10 rupiahs worth.

Last time I took any notice there were about 500 Captains (including freighters)

If you join today you are about # 1400 (I think)

So you have 900 slots to move through before you become elegible.

Pick an average number for command upgrades you expect to be maintained b/t now and year x (my figure is 60), and refer table below.

900/yr = 1 year
450/yr = 2 yrs
300/yr = 3
225 = 4
180 = 5
150 = 6
130 = 7
110 = 8
100 = 9
90 = 10
80 = 11
75 = 12
70 = 13
65 = 14
60 = 15

This is the most simple way of looking at it, and doesn`t take into consideration F/O retirements etc.

And if I catch one of you saying (in year 2010) `Well when I joined, they said it was ten years to command, and IT STILL IS` there`ll be some ass kickin!

[xcheck]

It takes roughly about two years for a new joiner to become JF/O (Junior F/O), In the last 2 1/2 years, about 45 F/Os were promoted to become Captains, but in 1997, there were about 50 guys in a year.
Right now there are about 500 F/Os (including JF/Os) on the seniority list, if your arithmetic is not too bad and you are an optimistic person, it seems to me 12 years is a very optimistic guess.

[View Point]

I think 15 years from day one is a resonable estimation.

[St_Paul_Island]

About twelve inches, but I don't use it as a rule ...

Oh, I see! The maths by jtr seems a good way to guess this. Incidentally, when CX announced 180 commands over a three year period (average 60 per year) a while back, they said that CX had NEVER upgraded so many so quickly. So 60 per year is probably a maximum.

Just after that announcement was made, ASL came along with about 100 direct entry captains - so the 180 quickly became 30 or so over three years. That's a BIG decrease.

Now we are looking at extending the retirment age from 55 to 60 - so add another 5 years.

And the longer it takes, the more opportunities there are for your conditions to be changed, and your contract to be shredded, again and again and again ...

Whichever way you look at it, xcheck's guess of 12 years is a pipe dream, way too optimistic. Airlines like BA and QANTAS have quicker times to command, and Emirates is lightning quick. Not this place.

[Thrust]

Job satisfaction is the important part for me. I fly with good people and am respected by my peer group for being part an excellent operation. It's a relatively short time in the soul destroying position of S/O in comparason to QF etc. It is not too long before most are handling their first jet ever, and a wide body at that.

We must also consider money into the equation. I realise B-scale's are well below the market average for our type of airline however we do have a "common jet salary". We don't have climb up several pay scale ladders so that is a small plus.

I'm not in love with CX by any stretch of the imagination but I believe just a direct look at time to command isn't all that you may think it is.

My guess for a new joiner that starts today would be 14 years to command. That would probably pan out on average to 10 to 15 years as a Captain depending on retirement age. Not fast but reasonable.


[This message has been edited by Thrust (edited 23 September 2000).]

[jtr]

As SPI pointed out, perhaps 60/ year is a tad ambitious. So I would like to add the disclaimer, that this is my ultimate, optimistic, inside estimate, assuming CX does expand as they keep saying they want to, (double fleet size within 5 years), and keep going. As an aside, according to what was posted to us by Line Ops the other day, since Feb `99, the fleet size has DECREASED by 1. 66 to 65.

[jtr]

x check, don`t forget the 100 or so ASL F/O`s at/near the bottom of the list. There`s another 2-4 years for a new joiner.

My warm fuzzy feel good est. is still 15 years.

Cold hard light of day est.... 20-25 yrs.

Think of all the guys you have flown with that have been here 15 years, on conditions WAY better than we can even imagine. Happy/Unhappy?

<Puts on ENYA CD, walks to bathroom, runs warm bath, lights candles, takes a bottle of sleeping pills. `Goodbye cruel world`>

http://smilecwm.tripod.com/ut1/redeemerwhore.gif




[This message has been edited by jtr (edited 23 September 2000).]

[1-stripper]

Half of the 900 F/O's and S/O's will probably leave for greener pastures so that's 450. Add the 100 ASL F/O's, you now have 550. Assume number of over 55 yrs old equal to the number of new capt. positions due to expansion and there will be 60 commands per year. Hence time to upgrade for a new joiner is 9 years.

[jtr]

1 striper, look at the 900 F/O`s and S/O`s b/t new joiner and command. If you were 1 year away from command would you leave? not. If you were two years away would you leave? think not. Three years? probably not. Four. maybe not etc. Most likely the further away you are from command. Do you think that half of the guys you joined with are going to leave?? If you answered yes, and you expect this has happened to every one above you, then obviously this thinning out has already happened, i.e. most of the guys who joined 8 years ahead of you that were going to leave... ALREADY HAVE!!!
I`ve been here 4 and some years. Of the group of 14 that joined around the same time, 3 have left. In the next 4 or so years, maybe only one more will go.
If you expect someone joining today to be eligble for a command in 9 years, then refer below. Not trying to rain on your parade. Just the numbers.

http://stisev.tripod.com/bs3.gif

[Mr Nice guy]

G'day, thanks to all those who replied. I knew I could get something useful out of you lot. Thanks again...!! :)

[BlunderBus]

Cast your minds back 10 years when 'new joiners' were already 40-ish. we now have swags of left seaters in their 30's and 40's ...sorry boys but it's going to be a while before they hit the road and it may be at 60..watch those rubber goalposts!!!

[BlunderBus]

A thought..the military had a joke...."how long is it?" and of course the answer was "twice as long as half of it"!! twice as long to command and when you(finally)get there you'll be on half pay!!!what a winner.

[Polar-bear]

jtr says that out of his group of 14, only 3 have left.
The question that springs to mind is why are most of your group staying if you say that CX is so bad?

[bobajob61]

So Polar-bear, you'd say that a 65% retention rate for pilots flying vitually brand new a/c for a "great" airline is good? :rolleyes:

There was better retention in the regional airline I started commercial flying in - and they EXPECTED people to move on!

You'll learn. http://www.pprune.org/ubb/NonCGI/tongue.gif

[jtr]

Polar Bear, because, like you, I, and most of my joining brethren who have stuck around, are from below the equator.


The three that left, were two Americans, and one Australian.

If there were other options, when I joined, e.g. EK, then I would have leapt at it. If I could join UA, NW, AA, etc, then I would go for it now (as most of the US guys do as soon as they can). The topic of this post is with regards to length of time to seniority.
CX has a lot of young Captains, and the others, who are reaching age, are now indicating their desire to extend another 5 years on B scale conditions. This will result in a longer time to command than has previously been experienced in Cathay.

If you joined in the 80`s, you joined as an F/O, with a company that didn`t do a lot of long haul. Thus a one to one ratio of F/O`s to Captains give or take.
If you joined in the 90`s, then it was either as an F/O or an S/O with a company that was making a drive into the long haul market, which, for each Captain on a long haul sector, requires two F/O`s and one S/O.
If you join this decade, it is as an S/O, behind a lot of young Captains, F/O`s and S/O`s.

Guys who joined in `90, when time to Captaincy was 3 years, have taken 8-10 years to get there.

Joined in `93, when it was 5 years, probably be the better part of 10-14 years.

`96, when it was taking 8 years, who knows, my guess is 15++

I`m no genius, but I think I see a trend here.

If in some way you are looking for a response to your `Anything good to say about CX` post, then let the lack of answers be a heads up for you chap! Yes, good guys/gals, yes, new a/c, but what of pay, lifestyle, rosters, promotion, contract stability, benefits etc. Why has nothing been said? Is it because you asked for good things to be said?

One assumes you understand the seniority system, and it`s drawbacks in relation to switching jobs. Well that is what a lot of us are living now. When I joined, PPRUNE was unheard of. You are speaking to the people who live in the crystal ball that you are looking into.
Don`t ask a question if you don`t want an honest answer.


[This message has been edited by jtr (edited 28 September 2000).]