Expansion from aer arann??????

[WOWBOY]

Do you think we could see Aer arann expand in the new year?

Maybe flights to
GLA (DROP PIK)
ABZ
CWL
EXT
PLH
NCL

Any ideas????

[Runway 31]

Why drop PIK WOWBOY and where would these destinations be operated from ?.

[airhumberside]

I have just read that Aer Arran will be going through a period of consolidation

ABZ has FR
CWL has Air Wales and FR - perhaps Waterford would work?
EXT has BE
PLH has Air Southwest

This just leaves NCL, which could do with a Cork service - either FR and Aer Arran would be ideal candidates

Other possible routes I think would work:

HUY-DUB
LCY-DUB
LCY-ORK
JER-DUB
JER-ORK
GCI-DUB
GCI-ORK
Kerry-BHX
Waterford-BHX
INV-DUB

And some maybe's

DUB-Cambridge
DUB-SEN
DUB-Gloucester

[we_never_change]

Cityjet already operate LCY-DUB with 146s, could the route support 2 operators?

Jetmagic tried LCY-ORK, not sure how succesful it was.

Does Gloucester really have all the facilities to support a regular scheduled flight? I know that they occasionally have a summer Sats only flight to Jersey.

Also, probably more succesful to operate JER-GCI-DUB/ORK rather than have them as individual flights.

WNC

[Jet2LBA]

ORK-LCY could be a potential winner for Aer Arran with an AT4, a type much cheaper to operate on the route than the ERJ-135 Jetmagic used.

Also think that a BHD-LCY AT4 non-stop would be a popular and quick link given both airport's close location the their respective city centres. The current one-stop service with Flybe is due to be dropped soon as it does not fit in with BE's LCC service.

Other viable new services could be:

DUB-GCI/JER
DUB-HUY
ORK-NCL
ORK-GCI/JER
NOC-BRS

[we_never_change]

Wouldn't Doncaster Sheffield Robin Hood & his band of Merry men airport be a better choice than HUY?

WNC

[MerchantVenturer]

Aer Arann reduced ORK-BRS-ORK from six rotations per week (daily except Sats) to three per week (Tu, Th and Sun) at the beginning of summer 04 and this reduced schedule has persisted into the winter.

They reduced SOU to four weekly rotations from six at the same time.

The BRS and SOU loads were good but it is believed that Aer Arann wanted aircraft to fly their PSO routes from the likes of Waterford where money was guaranteed, so BRS and SOU suffered.

Given that BRS carries more pax than the other south west and south Wales airports combined it is a peculiar anomaly that both CWL and PLH have better ORK services than BRS. Especially when one considers that BRS flies around 23,000 from/to DUB each month and 26,000-30,000 from/to the Belfast airports each month. This might give a clue that there is a market for at least one fifty-seater rotation per day to ORK.

So before Aer Arann considers any other destinations from BRS (not that I have any reason to think they are) it would perhaps be a good start to reinstate their original ORK schedule. If they don't I would like to think that Air Southwest is looking at the route.

[nclairportfan]

Would love to see them at NCL but I am unsure if they will commence the route. Someone should though - for such a short flight I think it would be a moneyspinner if the right fare structure was introduced.

[MarkD]

Merchant

last time I heard WAT was not a PSO route port.

KIR, GWY, CFN, SXL are RE's PSO routes, with Loganair on LDY. All the PSO routes are ex DUB.

RE have expanded quite quickly, but maybe growing pains have hit. It's a pity it doesn't combine or ally with another ATR operator... maybe one with a dragon on the tail.

Any RE folk out there in the know? Knowledge of which routes are PSO would be a start...

[MerchantVenturer]

Mark

Ha, ha, trust me to pick the wrong Irish regional airport.

I am sure you are right about Waterford but the general point I was making was that Aer Arann did start a lot of new routes around the time they cut back on BRS and SOU, and obviously they were not going to give up on their PSO routes.

When the airline actually started the ORK to BRS and SOU routes in summer 2002 they initially operated a combined flight to both airports calling at BRS both en route to SOU and on the way back to ORK. Equipment was a ATR 72 and it was six days a week (not Sats).

The next year they decided to operate separate flights to both airports, again six days a week, to BRS usually with a 72 and (I believe) to SOU with a 42.

Then this summer they reduced the rotations as described in my earlier post.

Both before and after the reduction in schedules both SOU and BRS routes to ORK averaged loads of 40 to 45 pax most months (CAA stats), which would give an average load of 80-90% on the ATR 42, which the airline now seems to use on the BRS route, and I presume the SOU one.

Even with the current three days a week service from BRS to ORK the average loads for September and October this year were 45 and 42 respectively - worked out from CAA stats on the number of pax carried in those months.

It may be that the airline gets better yields elsewhere but I am surprised that no-one else seems interested in a route that appears ripe for plucking.

[neidin]

MarkD you are correct on the PSO routes.

My friends at Aer Rianta - now Dublin Airport Authority believe that Aer Arann is handing back two ATR's in Spring 05 - so they will likely be cutting back UK ops rather than expanding. Aer Rianta are quite cynical = they see RE as great to prove routes and then quickly promote them to other airlines. So at ORK they sold Jet2 hard on Belfast and BMIBABY on BHX. Screw Aer Arann is the view. Shortsighted.

RE had a bad week last week with masses of cancelled and late flights. They had a small off runway on 16th Dec - http://www.galwayadvertiser.ie/dws/story.tpl?inc=2004/12/16/news/54402.html Some EI friends arrived at KIR on Friday at 2.20am as opposed to 11pm. RE are being given unfairly harsh treatment by the IAA by all accounts. Aer Rianta don't help.

The problem for RE is the overhang of retaining these lucrative PSO routes. If they don't get the lot well it could be tricky - and I guess it must be very hard to plan airline ops when you don't know if you will still have your core revenue routes after June 2005.

You have to admire them trying the UK routes but with all these Low Cost Jet Carriers attacking them at ORK and then Ryanair going against them on their GWY routes - it must be hell looking forward. It is so hard to make turbo props work on UK routes now with the growth of LCC's.

ORK-LCY is a dog. Charges at LCY are animal high. For an ATR could be UK£30 per pax! ORK people will not pay that.

Best of luck to RE - they do try.

[jamesbrownontheroad]

Maybe more 'domestic' routes from BHD - Shannon, Galway, Sligo etc... connections on the Enterprise train aren't always great, and leisure traffic could support a one-a-day service.

Perhaps, perhaps...

*j*

[Tom the Tenor]

Neidin, ref your paragraph above beginning with the now gone Aer Rianta - you are well wide of the mark about Jet 2 and Belfast. Simply not the case. As for BHX well bmi baby will score very well there all right.

Aer Arann's punctuality is an issue.

Last Friday RE hired in a Cityjet BAe 146 and combined two flights DUB-ORK.

There is talk here in Cork that RE will soon put on an hourly flight to Dublin. If so, punctuality will need to be tightened up and prices will need to be more attractive too.

A mix of new Dash 8 Q400 and Q300 like BEE would be a better bet giving greater flexibility with high and low cost fares with the Q300s suitable for operations out of GWY, CFN, SXL and Waterford?

[neidin]

Tom, Jet2 are definitely doing Belfast-ORK daily from UK£1 - that is tough for RE. Almost not fair!

RE would do well with more flights to DUB ex ORK - better to scrap the remainder of the UK routes and go DUB only. The fear then is that a LCC will hammer in on ORK-DUB. Some are already looking at it. Hard to see them being able to lease expensive DASH kit. It is so tough for the few remaining Turbo Prop operators in Europe. LCC's have really changed the goalposts in last 18 months.

[Tom the Tenor]

Cork did not force Belfast down Jet 2's throat.

What about easy on BRS-ORK? Sure, it is a very huge capacity increase on the ATR42/72 but if you start selling seats at Euro/£9.99 or less who knows where you might end going? The 6G flights from/to CWL could then be vulnerable too with their ATR services? If at the same time easy were to do a W rotation starting with BRS to Cork, well then, anywhere could be on the horizon with easy out of Cork? How about a x6/7 from Bristol and, say, then a x2/7 to Berlin/Madrid/Venice?

Am I being a little imaginative or am I just deluding myself in my dotage!?

[ALLMCC]

The BFS - ORK is most likely the latest instalment of BFS management's efforts to attract business away from BHD and, as such, is not directed purely at RE. A cursory glance at Jet 2's schedule shows that the early departure from BFS -ORK arrives back at BFS in time to operate the outbound to Bournemouth. With only one rotation per weekday to/from ORK, it is unlikely to attract the business fraternity which, I believe, represents a sizable proportion of current loads from/to BHD.

Presumably this provides maximum utilisation of the aircraft involved which would otherwise lie idle for some hours after overnight freight movements to/from BFS. The Bournemouth seems to be an indirect swipe at Flybe's BHD - SOU service but with only one rotation per day against Flybe's 3x daily is unlikely to cause them any sleepless nights.

[hoss72]

A 'usually reliable source' tells me that A A is to acquire another 2 ATR 72's in the spring.
Surely further expansion of services (without any competion) from Waterford is on the cards.
Also Waterford has never had the luxury of a PSO route, supposedly because the surface links were deemed adequate !(more likely because the political links were not adequate at the time ?) Look at Sligo for example only 30 miles from Knock International ! Just how many airports do we need on the west coast ?
Anyway I thought these PSO's were to be phased out next year.

[Cyrano]

Tom:

It's a fine line between imaginativeness and delusion! ;)

The likes of Easyjet could certainly drive more demand on a route like BRS-ORK - but would it really be enough for a day-in-day-out 150-seater? A few seats at £9.99 to get the punters salivating is all very well, but Easy's average yield (albeit on a longer average sector length) is somewhere north of £40 from memory, so even to get close to that is going to require a stready stream of high-yield pax willing to pay £50 or £60 or £80. Are they really there (other than for the Cheltenham Races? :) )

As for the W patterns: I'm open to correction, but my impression is that Easyjet has never been a big fan of less-than-daily operations (the likes of the 3x weekly to destination A and 4x weekly to destination B, that Aer Arann and fly Globespan go in for, to name but two). But if MOL and Ray Webster have another backstage bustup at some conference and easy wants to to ratchet the competition up another notch, maybe they'll do it!


Hoss72:

The PSO contracts are up for renewal in 2005, probably on different (=less generous) terms, but as far as I know there is no suggestion that they will be scrapped entirely. However Aer Arann is likely to face more competition for them this time round.

[Tom the Tenor]

I think the new easy route from Belfast to Inverness will be at less than a daily service? BRS-ORK is 26 minutes flight time so the associated costs would be tiny bit less so the entire rotation would be less than 1.5 hours.

Apart from easy currently having a mix of classic 737s, NGs and A319 aircraft would there be any new opportunities at some point in the future of a European loco having a mix of say, NGs/A32X and something like ERJ 190s in the way JetBlue are intending to go in the next few years? I guess costs go up again and good economies of scale are reduced.

Most of the more recent UK airports now attracting locos like CVT, BOH, Doncaster/Sheffield (Finningley) have large catchment areas in terms of population so most of the UK locos can still put 737 type equipment on their new routes without having to consider route establishing aircraft like ERJ 190/70s, ATRs or Dash 8 aircraft. BEE are of course the exception using the lovely Q400s for their recent expansion.

This is where somewhere like Cork is still caught? Catchment area still relatively small compared to a UK city and it not being viable to put daily 737 size aircraft on routes like CVT, BRS, GLA etc. Makes it even more difficult then to establish new low cost routes to Europe from Cork? Mind you if Ryanair can throw on a daily 737-800 from Liverpool to Cork that kind of service could be started from any other Ryanair base too? And if RE take two more ATR-72s a lot could be done from Cork to north and west France and one of my own chestnuts, a two weekly to Bilbao?