Wirraway
16th Dec 2004, 13:49
Fri "The Australian"
'17,300 new craft needed by 2023'
Steve Creedy, Aviation writer
December 17, 2004
STRONG growth in the Asia-Pacific region and the emergence of of low-cost carriers will help generate a need for 17,300 new passenger and freight aircraft worth $US1.9 trillion ($2.5trillion) over the next two decades, a new forecast predicts.
The latest Airbus Global Market Forecast says the Asia-Pacific will eclipse North America by 2023 to account for 31 per cent of 9 trillion revenue passenger kilometres generated a year. North America will account for 26 per cent.
Europe is expected to generate about 32 per cent of the air world's traffic.
"Overall, this period includes the strongest traffic growth recovery seen since 1980 and highlights the resilience of the industry," the forecast says.
"The strong economic development of the Asia-Pacific region, especially in emerging economies, and the increasing impact of low-cost carriers in all domestic markets will significantly contribute to this growth."
Air freight is tipped to be the stellar performer over the next two decades, generating the need for 700 new and 2400 converted freighters.
The forecast predicts freight tonne kilometres will rise by an average of 5.9 per cent a year, overshadowing passenger traffic growth.
Airbus forecasts operators will need 16,600 new passenger aircraft of more than 100 seats over the next two decades, creating an average delivery of 830 passenger aircraft a year.
This will be partly due to a threefold rise in traffic as revenue passenger kilometres over the period grow at an average rate of 5.3 per cent.
The industry will also need to replace 9200 older planes.
Airbus predicts the number of flights on passenger routes and the number of aircraft in service will more than double over the 20 years.
It says this will be accompanied by the use of bigger aircraft, with the average number of seats increasing by 20 per cent from 181 to 215.
The Asia-Pacific is seen as a major market for 1250 aircraft seating 450 or more passengers it believes will be needed over the next two decades. It says more than half will serve high-density population centres in the region.
Separately, Airbus said South Africa had signed a declaration of intent to take part in the A400M military transport program.
The E750 million ($1.32 billion) deal makes South Africa the first country outside Europe to commit to the program.
Airbus said the deal meant South African industry would get high-value work packages from Airbus Military that would make it a key participant throughout the life of the program.
Australia has been offered a similar deal.
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'17,300 new craft needed by 2023'
Steve Creedy, Aviation writer
December 17, 2004
STRONG growth in the Asia-Pacific region and the emergence of of low-cost carriers will help generate a need for 17,300 new passenger and freight aircraft worth $US1.9 trillion ($2.5trillion) over the next two decades, a new forecast predicts.
The latest Airbus Global Market Forecast says the Asia-Pacific will eclipse North America by 2023 to account for 31 per cent of 9 trillion revenue passenger kilometres generated a year. North America will account for 26 per cent.
Europe is expected to generate about 32 per cent of the air world's traffic.
"Overall, this period includes the strongest traffic growth recovery seen since 1980 and highlights the resilience of the industry," the forecast says.
"The strong economic development of the Asia-Pacific region, especially in emerging economies, and the increasing impact of low-cost carriers in all domestic markets will significantly contribute to this growth."
Air freight is tipped to be the stellar performer over the next two decades, generating the need for 700 new and 2400 converted freighters.
The forecast predicts freight tonne kilometres will rise by an average of 5.9 per cent a year, overshadowing passenger traffic growth.
Airbus forecasts operators will need 16,600 new passenger aircraft of more than 100 seats over the next two decades, creating an average delivery of 830 passenger aircraft a year.
This will be partly due to a threefold rise in traffic as revenue passenger kilometres over the period grow at an average rate of 5.3 per cent.
The industry will also need to replace 9200 older planes.
Airbus predicts the number of flights on passenger routes and the number of aircraft in service will more than double over the 20 years.
It says this will be accompanied by the use of bigger aircraft, with the average number of seats increasing by 20 per cent from 181 to 215.
The Asia-Pacific is seen as a major market for 1250 aircraft seating 450 or more passengers it believes will be needed over the next two decades. It says more than half will serve high-density population centres in the region.
Separately, Airbus said South Africa had signed a declaration of intent to take part in the A400M military transport program.
The E750 million ($1.32 billion) deal makes South Africa the first country outside Europe to commit to the program.
Airbus said the deal meant South African industry would get high-value work packages from Airbus Military that would make it a key participant throughout the life of the program.
Australia has been offered a similar deal.
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