Will there be a pilot shortage?

[scientifics]

Or is it all a marketing ploy?

[no sponsor]

This has been answered many times before. A summary is:

There is an oversupply of newly qualified ATPL (f), low houred individuals, some with type ratings.

My guess is that all schools hype the fact that there is a shortage, but it tends to be a shortage of experienced pilots with significant jet time.

But, the emergence of low cost carriers in the far east will mean the requirements will drop with time. However, the fact that anyone can now borrow whatever they want to train will probably mean the numbers of newly qualified people will increase too.

At BGS I just could not believe the numbers of people in training.

[EGCC4284]

Talking to a BA Captain yesterday and he said that he had been told that the is going to be around 800 new vacancies through out the UK industry in 2005.

He did not say where he had heard this and if it was due to retirements as well as expansion within the industry.

[wobblyprop]

There is a short right now. But, it's for captains with as many TLAs on their license as possible ;)

[RVR800]

I have been involved in aviation for years and its always been jam yesterday and jam tomorrow but no jam today.

I know many people with national ATPLs that have remained stuck in general aviation for over 10 years.

They are in their 40s now!

Of course we still dont know detailed student pilot progression statistics for the UK as the CAA elect NOT to publish that information freely.

I will let you decide as to why that is......

[salapilot]

I agree with RVR800, and this thing about pilot shortage is pie in the sky, and i've heard this since the late 90's. The truth is simply that, yes there maybe a shortage of experienced drivers, but the fact of the matter is, that there is to many low hour pilot's trying to get that first foot on the ladder. If you are one of the lucky ones who gets on......well need i say more

Bottom line network, network, network and oh yeh NETWORK !

sp

[Luke SkyToddler]

Short answer to the topic starter ...


WHEN HELL FREEZES OVER

:{ :{

[CaptainProp]

RVR800 - You are 100% correct!! We have heard about this shortage for years now, it never seems to happen...However, if people are stuck i general aviation for 10 (!!!) years (still keeping license, medical valid) I think they should take a serious look in the mirror and ask themselves "What is "wrong" with me??"
I believe that if you work hard, keep on calling, mailing and showing you interest, you WILL get there in the end!! The problem is not to get desperate and start moaning and bitching because people around you get jobs....
I'm a living example of this and I know lots of other people without the right "contacts" who made it!! I was lucky to pull a turbo-prop job almost straight out of flight training.... At the time I had some 80+ CV's out there...from South America to Hong Kong... I got one (1) interview, one (1) job.... Then I was updating, calling and e-mailing for a loooooong time to try to "move on".....It was quiet for a loooong time!! And then, all of a sudden, whooops!! 4 interviews in 5 months.. It was my turn...That's how I look at it... When applying, you have to remember that 1000, or more, did the same...only months, maybe years, before you did....

Agree??

Flying Airbus IS really nice!!

[RVR800]

Yes. Glad to hear that you quickly found work.

I know many that didnt - I dont know why.

Some were too old maybe?

If one looks at people from the FCL Examiners down and wonder if they chose the GA path that they have now have trodden for 10 years plus?

No one knows how many are 'successful' - it's all anecdotal.

Apart from the CAA.

I'd like some hard statistical facts.

Next year.

[spaceman1000]

it is not in the interest of the CAA and flight schools to tell you there is not a pilot shortage. these $%$%$ make big money from us, and You are the poor guy who are ripped off and keep the flying business in good shape.

Look at all these desperate pilots spending all their money in type rating, they run from Airbus to Boeing, then from Fokker to ATR.Some guys have the courage to go to Africa.

THERE IS NO PILOT SHORTAGE, AND AIRLINES DO NOT NEED YOU.
IF you want spend all your money in a pilot training, go ahead, nobody is forcing you.

I still accept CV, must be accompanied by your credit card number!PM me if interested.

:p

[scroggs]

The '800 pilots required in UK in 2005' figure came from the BALPA employment symposium held last month, and is reported in BALPA's magazine, The Log, this month. As I'm sure you are all aware, as unemployed pilots you can join BALPA as associate members at the rate of £24 annually, and thus have direct access to this kind of information.

That number of 800 does not refer to ab-initio entries into the airline business, and includes a fair few jobs for those with some experience. My best guess is that roughly half that number will come from the fATPL brigade, some of which will inevitably be supplied by CTC.

There is not now, no will there ever be, a shortage of new pilots. There is often a shortage of experienced pilots, as is developing right now. What is experienced? Over 5000 airline (or around 3000 military) hours with type ratings on appropriate aircraft.

Scroggs

[smith]

Scroggs

If there is a shortage of experienced pilots, surely the low houred guys will move up the food chain?

Yes, there will never be a shortage of fATPL's but you got to get experience somewhere. Suppose its a bit of a catch 22 situation really.

[scroggs]

Smith, a shortage of experienced pilots exists occasionally because there are more jobs for them than there are pilots willing to move. There has bever been a situation in commercial aviation where there are more beginners' jobs available than people willing and qualified to take them. There never will be, either.

Certainly jobs further up the food chain allow people to get on at the bottom rung, but the numbers involved do not presage a shortage in any way, shape or form!

Scroggs