2 new FR bases

[FLYboh]

The Financial Times reported that FR are set to announce two new bases in the next few weeks.

Anyone got any ideas where???:)

Article below taken from FT.COM. New bases reported right at the bottom of the article.

Ryanair plays down prospect of price war
By Kevin Done, Aerospace Correspondent
Published: November 2 2004 07:59 | Last updated: November 2 2004 20:41

The share prices of Europe's leading low cost airlines rose sharply on Tuesday, as Ryanair signalled that the winter price war may be less fierce than previously forecast.

Michael O'Leary, Ryanair chief executive, said that based on "current financial booking trends" the airline had revised its guidance, although he warned that high oil prices could still force some carriers into bankruptcy.

Ryanair on Tuesday forecast a decline in yields or average fare levels of between five and 10 per cent instead of the 10 to 20 per cent previously predicted for the winter months from October to March.

Ryanair said its yields had declined by five per cent in the first half to the end of September, again less than originally feared.

The Ryanair share price closed 64 cents or 15.9 per cent higher at €4.67, while Easyjet closed 11p or 6.9 per cent higher at 170½p.

Investors were encouraged that Ryanair was able to announce record traffic volumes and profits for its first half with net profits rising by 18.5 per cent to a record €200.1m despite surging fuel costs and lower fares.

The Irish airline, probably the world's most profitable carrier, achieved a 27.8 per cent net margin in the first half from April to September, seasonally the strongest months when it earns the bulk of its profits.

Mr O'Leary warned that the airline would earn only a "tiny profit" in both the third and fourth quarters with a big fall in earnings in the current third quarter and little more than a breakeven for the whole of the second half.

Ryanair has none of its fuel requirements hedged as of this month. Mr O'Leary said that, if the benchmark Brent crude oil price remained at $50 a barrel for the remainder of the financial year to the end of March, it would add €55m to the airline's total budgeted costs.

Even with this added burden, he said the airline would still achieve a net margin of around 20 per cent for the full year with a net profit in the range of €200m to €215m, little changed from the €206.6m achieved last year.

Chris Avery, aviation analyst at JP Morgan, said the market reaction was "in response to the realisation that the low fare model is in no way damaged. Even at $50 [per barrel of] oil the company is still guiding to €200m net income...The winter yield environment is nothing like as bad as they have been saying."

Ryanair has eased its drive to reduce fares and intensify competition in order to compensate in part for the added costs it faces from the surge in the oil price.

Mr O'Leary said that Ryanair would remain unhedged until forward rates returned towards their previous "normal" levels.

The group remained "by some distance" the most profitable airline in Europe and could absorb much higher oil prices and still offer the lowest air fares.

Mr O'Leary warned that the high oil prices could still force the collapse of some carriers, however.

"Many of our competitor airlines who were losing money heroically, when fuel was $25 a barrel are doomed the longer it stays at $50. Our prediction of a bloodbath and airline casualties this winter may be accelerated by record high oil prices as well as by irrational competition."

In recent weeks the main casualty has been V-Bird, a small Dutch-owned carrier operating out of Düsseldorf-Niederrhein airport in Germany, which has ceased operations.

"We anticipate that there will be further airline casualties as the 'perfect storm' of declining fares and record high oil prices force loss-making carriers out of the industry," said Mr O'Leary.

In the first half Ryanair passenger volumes increased by 24 per cent from 11.3m to 14m - for the full year it forecasts a 19 per cent increase from 23.1m to 27.5m - while turnover rose by 21 per cent from €596m to €721m.

Ryanair continues to benefit from a big jump in ancillary revenues including commissions earned on internet travel insurance, hotel and car rental bookings with a rise in the six months of 42 per cent from €73m to €103m.

It has just started the introduction of a pay-to-view inflight entertainment system on some aircraft, and Mr O'Leary said that the airline hoped in the future to introduce inflight gambling as a new revenue stream.

Continuing "disciplined" route growth was central to the group's record earnings with 41 new routes opened during the summer season and better than expected results from its new bases at Barcelona-Gerona and Rome.

During the winter season Ryanair is adding three more aircraft to its London Luton base, two more in both Rome and Milan-Bergamo, and one more at each of its Frankfurt-Hahn, Glasgow-Prestwick and Stockholm-Skavsta bases.

Two new bases will be announced in coming weeks

[Doug the Head]

I heard rumours about Marseille.

[jabird]

He has talked about a shortlist of 8-9.

Don't the MRS rumours relate to having a separate no-frills terminal there.

Apparently 2-3 on the shortlist are in the UK. Presumably, they will be "joining up the dots", rather than launching from places they've never previously touched?

This would put LPL, MME & especially EMA, which has otherwise been fairly stagnant of late in the run in the UK.

NRN would perhaps be a front runner on the European mainland after the hole left by V Bird. Technically, does BVA count as a base - 7 routes, but all from other bases? Would this be an outside runner after FR have made lots of complaints about high taxes in France, despite a clear need for this market to be opened up?

LBC is another with lots of routes in, which presumably could also stand as a base in its own right - fairly large catchment area running into Northern Denmark? TRF and GSE are similar in this manner - or would they go for a base in one of the accession states - currently, only Riga is really represented here. There must be much more room for them to grow in this area, especially as they expand their recruitment from these parts.

[Tom the Tenor]

Throw the cat among the pigeons - what about Cork!?

Put it up to Easyjet and EI! :}

[irishair2001]

According to the News on TV last night, it says FR are very close to a deal with Shannon on setting up a base.

[Oscar Juliet]

'According to the News on TV last night, it says FR are very close to a deal with Shannon on setting up a base'

I thought they have a base in Shannon.

[iceman51]

One should be Italian, namely Pisa airport.

[RAT 5]

Interestingly, they chopped MST, have been trying to squeeze into RTM, but Basiqair got there first, and when GRO & CIA opened as new bases they immediately linked them up to EIN? With V-Bird dropping out of NRN, EIN links nicely between CRL & HHN. I would have expected NYO to have been served out of EIN as there is a strong Dutch Scandnavian association, socially, and in business.

If EIN was chosen it would make a big hole in EJ's crewing ranks.

[pipertommy]

Is there any truth behind a Cardiff expansion/base?

[MerchantVenturer]

There's been a slight expansion this winter on the DUB-CWL route in that FR have provided a second rotation on Mondays and Fridays.

I suppose there is always the possibility that MOL might see a chance of having at go at easyJet at BRS if he did set up at CWL.

However, there is a recent thread on PPRuNe concerning 'rumours' that ThomsonFly are to start a base at CWL.

Mind you, about a year ago the BBC West trade and industry correspondent came on the telly one evening and confidently predicted that Ryanair were to expand their operations at BRS. Hasn't happened.

[Runway 31]

I know that is off topic but I noted this while browsing

MADRID- Irish low-cost airline Ryanair is in talks to begin flights to an additional nine airports in Spain, El Pais reported Friday.

The Spanish daily, citing chairman Michael 0'Leary, said Ryanair already operates flights to eight airports in Spain, and soon will begin service to three others.

O'Leary told the newspaper that the budget carrier was eyeing about 80 new airports in total in Europe, including six in Italy and 17 in Germany, as part of its expansion programme. He did not provide further detail.

"There is in fact a long queue of airports which are after our flights," O'Leary said.

In Spain, Ryanair is due to begin flights to Zaragoza from 1 December, to Almeria from 19 January, and to Seville in February, according to the newspaper.

Iberia, the leading Spanish carrier, announced in mid-October that it may file a complaint against Ryanair at the European Commission on grounds that it has received illegal aid from regional governments in Spain.

[CAP670]

FR is reportedly in discussion with Luton's operator TBI, to base an additional four aircraft at Luton by Summer 2005 - this would take the total to eight (1 + 3 [Jan 05] + 4 [post-Easter 05]).

Biggest headache for Luton would be stands to accommodate these extra four aircraft. However, TBI is evaluating all options.

Unfortunately, the simplest - pouring even more concrete than is presently being poured - requires planning permission from Luton Borough Council, not the most dynamic, helpful or forward-looking local authority in the UK.

Second biggest headache = road access, which at peak times is already woefully inadequate.

But with the relationship bewteen MoL and BAA Stansted at an all time low, maybe even these seemingly intractable obstacles will be overcome?

;)

[Doug the Head]

Third biggest headache: adequate car parking lots without WWII bombcraters! :O

[Powerjet1]

Cap670

From my sources I had heard that no additional ryan aircraft at LTN, above the four already announced, would occur until at least Nov 2005, when a further three based were under consideration. However, you may have heard differently. Either way, in these rapidly changing times, things are changing almost daily basis, so who knows. Certainly the spat with the BAA is annoying both parties, but ryan will continue to expand at STN much along the lines they have always planned.

Work is due to start in the spring on dualling the remainder of the road from the M1, right into the airport, which will help considerably when completed. Eastern access is poor and although plans are being considered to solve this, it is a huge, multi-million pound plan, which would probably involve cutting through green-belt land and in reality, is many years away, if ever it got approval. The best that can be expected on this side, are small tweaks here and there over the next 2/3 years.

Regarding the car parks, agreed, these are a a joke. Surely a fresh layer of tarmac over the whole area, getting rid of the stones and potholes, would be money very well spent. Customer satisfaction would improve 100% over night. With NCP now running the show for the next few years, this should happen. They are also commited to adding an extra 2000 spaces, possibly by a new multi-storey, who knows?. With 2005 looking to break the 9m pax barrier, something has got to happen and quick.

[Buster the Bear]

BLIMEY, ANOTHER 4!

Well the Ryans want to expand from Stansted, so it is quite possible that they move established routes from Essex into Bedfordshire just like the process they started with Dinard last month and will see 4 airframes based by Jan 05?

http://whipsnade.co.uk/picturelibrary/jpeg150/br/brown_bear_120_wide.jpg

[LTNman]

Unfortunately, the simplest - pouring even more concrete than is presently being poured - requires planning permission from Luton Borough Council, not the most dynamic, helpful or forward-looking local authority in the UK.

TBI have announced that a net payment to Luton Borough Council of £12 million was made on a turnover of £68 million. I think you will find that the council is very much pro airport.

[CAP670]

I think you will find that the council is very much pro airport

Creaming off £12M in return for zero effort would make me pretty 'pro-airport' too!! However, there's little evidence of any proactivity on the part of the Council as far as its Airport is concerned (unless it's a well kept secret...).

Come to think of it, what the heck is the Council doing with that £12M?? The town certainly doesn't look like its Council has a pot of gold!

:hmm:

[Powerjet1]

Buster

I think you are right. LTN is unlikely to see any totally new ryan destinations as these will almost certainly go to STN for start-up and qualify for 'new route discounts'. However, of the smaller, longer established routes that are about to loose discount status from the BAA, some of these could transfer to LTN, qualify for a discount here, and thus free up slots at STN for the new routes. Of course it also gives ryan another string in its bow as LTN is the only major airport in the London area not run by the BAA.

Off the subject I know, but worth a mention, it was reported in yesterday's Times that

"TUI, the German travel group, that owns Thomson Holidays, has confirmed plans to close its UK headquarters in Camden, North London, and move to new offices in Luton"

If this was discussed elsewhere, sorry. New offices - maybe Capability Green ?

[Musket90]

FR I'm sure would wish to expand more at STN, problem is presently no spare dep slots available in morning peak so at present only way they can open new routes during morning dep peak is to transfer existing slots to nearby LTN or drop less profitable routes completely and replace with more profitable new destinations. If they continue to open new bases in Europe this means they can originate flights there and arrive/dep STN just after morning peak therefore continue expansion at STN without slot constraint. FR dispute with STN BAA I don't think is relevant as STN is by far their biggest base and therefore biggest profit maker.

[Buster the Bear]

Musket, that assumes the yield will be very good with european early morning traffic inbound to Stansted for the Harps?

I would guess the yields would be greater for early morning departures and late evening arrivals using Stansted at the originating airport in the morning and the destination at night?

No smoke without fire?

I cannot remember the text in full, but the Times reported that Luton was to be the focus of Ryanair's future UK growth. That could be the addition of the extra 3 in Jan, or you could read it as, 'more to come'?

I read the article as the latter.

http://whipsnade.co.uk/picturelibrary/jpeg150/br/brown_bear_120_wide.jpg

[LTNman]

The arrival of a fleet of FR 800’s is the best news for LTN in years. Success breeds success, which means more infrastructure which will mean more interest by other airlines.

[few@two]

Any idea where these bases are gonna be???

[The_Bean_Counter]

Bases to be announced in the next 2 weeks, Alghero and Lubeck appear to be the favourites with Niederrhein an outside chance

[sickBocks]

Anybody got the goss regarding RYR coming 'out East.' Of interest would be the result of their recruitment day in WAW...

sB

[conradmueller]

tomorrow at 10.30 german time there is a press conference with O´Leary in Niederrhein. So that might give some solution.

[Buster the Bear]

Luton airport tries to lure Ryanair
Robert Lea, Evening Standard
16 November 2004

RYANAIR has been the quintessential Stansted airline in the vanguard of the budget carriers responsible for the stratospheric growth in the Essex airport, now so popular that it needs a second runway. But for how much longer? Luton, the self-proclaimed fourth London airport 30 miles to the west in Bedfordshire, today made an audacious bid to wrest Ryanair away from its Stansted home of the last decade.

Keith Brooks, chief executive of Luton's parent company TBI, today made his case.

A £30m investment programme at Luton will result in its capacity growing to 12 million passengers a year from next summer. Ryanair is committed to introducing dozens of new 180-seater Boeing 737s in the coming years.

The carrier's relations with BAA, the owner of Stansted, where the Irish have a contract running to 2006, are at an all-time low after a spat over fuel bills escalated into a £25m High Court battle over non-payment of airport charges.

'We have an unblemished record of filling every new Ryanair or easyJet plane launched at Luton,' Brooks said. 'Our infrastructure is every bit as good as Stansted's and our transport links are better. Put it this way, I'd be very surprised if Ryanair stayed there.'

Michael O'Leary, the Ryanair chief executive who always has more than half an eye on an airport willing to offer incentives, is listening.

While he was unable to comment today on any long-term commitment to Stansted, a shift to Luton is already taking place with Ryanair committing four new aircraft to nine new routes out of Luton from this winter.

Yet this does not necessarily mean bonanza time for TBI shareholders. Passenger volumes generally mean better profits for airports. But when the likes of Ryanair and easyJet are involved, that it not always the way.

Amid an underlying growth in pre-tax earnings at TBI of 18% to £19m in the half-year to end-September, Luton profits rose by less than 1% to £13.7m despite a 9% increase in passenger numbers to 4.1m.

Brooks admits that to offer customers easyJet and Ryanair from his airport, he has to pay for the pleasure via these so-called incentives.

http://whipsnade.co.uk/picturelibrary/jpeg150/br/brown_bear_120_wide.jpg

[phil_2405]

I think we will definitely see more Ryanair services @ LTN in the future.

Are either of the new bases to be in the UK?? I have heard NEMA is to have several 'new' services next summer...Ryanair perhaps???

[Powerjet1]

Here is an article that appears in the Guardian re TBI trying to lure ryanair away from STN to LTN. Don't think so somehow. However, a substantial increase in services by the airline at LTN is highly likely. Could others follow?.


TBI plans to triple Luton airport size

Andrew Clark
Wednesday November 17, 2004
The Guardian

Aviation company TBI is drawing up plans to triple the size of Luton airport. It says this will require its 30-year franchise to be extended.
TBI said it was in talks with Luton council to extend its concession, which expires in 2028. The chief executive, Keith Brooks, wants a longer deal to justify long-term investment, which could increase passenger numbers from 7 million a year to 20 or even 30 million. He hopes to lure traffic from Stansted, 40 miles to the east. TBI will try to persuade Ryanair to quit Stansted when its deal with operator BAA ends in 2007.

Building is under way on a 9,000 sq metre airside facility which will double the number of shops and restaurants and provide eight new gates.

TBI said Luton's passenger numbers rose 9% to 4.1 million in the six months to September. Profits from TBI, which also runs Cardiff and Belfast International airports, rose 167% to £19.2m.

[The_Bean_Counter]

Ryanair press conference at 2.30 in London, will it be Luton ?

[OLNEY 1 BRAVO]

You might care to look at a posting on the "New Development Work at Luton" thread on this forum ... our resident Bear has posted news that TBI have revealed that they are in preliminary talks with somebody about a possible purchase of TBI (again!!).

[lagerlout]

what about LPL or is that always likely to be a "spoke" and not a hub.?????????????

[RAT 5]

Dropped into STN the other night. The C & D piers were all full of RYR. Half the B was full of RYR and the other half EJ. EJ had some on the A as well. In other words there were no parking spaces. The buffer, east facing by D was also full of RYR.
So, if RYR expand at STN, where will they park the night stopd? Equally, how will they get them all airborne within a short period in the mornings?
The idea of LTN being able to accommodate an extra fleet of that size is beyond my imagination. LTN does not have enough flat ground near enough to the runway to build aprons & stands. And, can STN sustain the loss of RYR revenue? It would unlikely to be replaced quickly after an exit. Surely that should give RYR a bargaining chip in new charges negotiations.

[The_Bean_Counter]

New destinations in the booking system on FR

Brno
Wroclaw
Grenada (sic)

and LGW NOC too,

increased frequency on EZY routes to SNN and ORK