BA/Qantas

[averytdeaconharry]

When BA announcec that they were selling their stake in Qantas it was apparent that there had been no prior consultation with Qantas. BA also stated at that time that there route sharing agreement had got regulatory approval for a five year extension.

Qnatas is very successful at the moment and has much more financial muscle than BA. Methinks it is likely that they will feel hurt by what BA have done. They are in a brilliant position to rataliate.

They could cancel the route sharing agreement. This will leave BA very exposed with no viable connections to Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Cairns etc. Qantas market share will soar. They would also be free to expand their SYD/HKG/LHR service to daily. They could also reintroduce direct services to MAN. Finally they could terminate their leasedes on the 7 BA 767's that they are curently using. Thery could easily replace those aircraft, probably at better prices, with machines that are likely to be compatible with their other 767's. After all the BA 767's are the only ones in the world with Rolls engines and ACE galleys.

Things could get interesting quite soon now. I am sure that all this will happen before Qantas introduce the A380. BA will then very rapidly see them selves up against three A380's per day to Australia by Qantas. It is a nightmare scenario for BA.

[bean_counter]

You are assuming that:

They are allowed to cancel the route sharing agreement
BA care about having service to Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Cairns etc.
Current air service agreements allow expanding SYD/HKG/LHR
There are no termination penalties on leased aircraft
Qantas can make money flying to MAN
Qantas can make money flying 3 A380 to LHR

Perhaps its a nightmare scenario for Qantas ?
Virgin are on the way via HKG, Singapore and Emirates may also be serving Australia with A380s

[Skylion]

The assumption that the announcement was not previously agreed with Qantas is clearly not correct.
The best thing that could possibly happen to BA would be that Qantas abandoned the partnership arrangement between Austraila and the UK and Europe which is very much to Qantas advantage, while inhibiting BA from maximising its own business and interests in Australia and much of Asia. It is therefore very unlikely that Qantas will abandon the arrangement which is so much in its favour.
Only the core route from Sydney and Melbourne via South East Asia to London is fundamentally profitable. All the rest is at best marginal/unprofitable and these are the routes Qantas flies,- so who pays??

[no, no, no]

QF people have been talking for some time now that a non-airline body would be the best people to replace BA if they gave up their shares - so saying that Qantas knew nothing about this is a bit naive - they would have had talks for some time behind the scenes agreeing on a plan to ensure that their relationship could continue.... it would be in neither on their interest to cancel it really and start competing for local traffic with VS on the prowl, regardless of what connections they could lose (and QF would lose all the UK ones if BA lost the Oz ones so both would suffer!!!).

What would be interesting is all this talk about QF forming an alliance with a Pacific Airline to become the major player in that region - been linked with NZ, who have been talking openly for a while), and also SQ - what would be very interesting to see with regards to their relationship with BA is what would happen if QF did double up with someone else - and if they weren't in oneworld...... if it was with either SQ/NZ, who are both star members, would QF switch alliance??? then that would interfere with the BA relationship!! And STAR have been after an OZ partner for ages since Ansett went.....

I already saw something a week ago being quoted by the STAR alliance with regards to QF joining them, that "....as Qantas are not part of the star alliance it would be unfair for STAR to comment on anything regarding a non-star carrier...."

or something like that!!!!

If EI also pulled out of oneworld as is being mentioned it could be very interesting for those left in the alliance......

chances are though, absolutely nothing will change.....:rolleyes:

[MarkD]

When NZ were linked with QF, it was noted that Star have a disaffiliation fee of a substantial amount. If oneworld don't, and EI's leaving may mean it isn't very high or there isn't one, it may make more sense for QF to jump ship. That said, having QF, NZ, SQ in the same alliance will be great for Star pax but not necessarily great for competition.

[Ascent]

maybe NZ could do a mexicana, and make * boot them out.

[no, no, no]

just read this story in the FT about BA/Qantas - looks like I could have been wrong about my thoughts - but does suggest that if BA and Qantas did come to blows then I doubt QF would stay in oneworld....


http://news.ft.com/cms/s/c296795c-05eb-11d9-bff2-00000e2511c8.html

[averytdeaconharry]

no,no.no

Thanks for the link.

It was really interesting. Thinga are certainly stirring. I believe QF currently have 767' s operating from SIN to the smaller Australian cities. It looks as if these are to replaced at least in part by A320's. It therefore looks as if there might be fire behind the smoke in my belief that the QF isd looking to return the 7 767's to BA. oneworld seems to be the least settled of the alliances. One thing though about all the alliances is that each airline puts its own interests first. QF is clearly now doing that on the London routes.

[Hotel Mode]

As i understand it the 767's leases have been permanantly transferred to QF

[halas]

averytdeaconharry
It looks as if these are to replaced at least in part by A320's

As QF don't operate A320's, to which operator do you refer to that will operate these aircraft on their behalf?

l suspect also the load carrying ability of the A320 would not be up to the requirement on most routes, and perhaps the range would be an issue on others, or perhaps both, even if they did operate them.

halas

[colegate]

halas,

I may have misread the interview with The QF CEO see no,no,no (above). He referred to JetStar aircraft. JetStar is a subsidiary of QF and do operate A320's.

[ettore]

A very interesting analysis (http://business.scotsman.com/transport.cfm?id=1069922004) after the sale of BA's stake in Qantas, under the title "British Shareways".

It's quite telling about further consolidation in the European Sky.