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Wirraway
13th Aug 2004, 16:22
Sat "Melbourne Age"

Getting to the bottom of the barrel
By Barry FitzGerald
August 14, 2004

What is a barrel?

It is a standard measure of crude oil, equivalent to 35 imperial gallons, 42 US gallons or 159 litres of unfinished product. Oils ain't oils. There are three main types: paraffin-based, asphaltic-based and mixed-base. Because of the different mix, oils from different producing regions also have different prices. The global demand is about 80 million barrels a day.

What do refineries make from the average barrel?

The main products are petrol (41 per cent), diesel (32 per cent) and aviation fuel (12 per cent). There are lesser amounts of fuel oil, bitumen, LPG, solvents and lubricants.

What does a barrel cost?

Headlines focus on the price set on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In the past couple of days, it has been trading at near-record levels of $US45.50 a barrel ($A63.77). The price is up by 68 per cent from a low of $US26.93 a barrel last September.

How is the oil price set in Australia?

Just like we don't ask our gold producers to sell their gold at prices below the world price, so it is with oil. But the reference price used in Australia reflects prices set in the Singapore market, the region's biggest market for trading crude oil.

What makes up the petrol price?

At $1 a litre for finished product, there is at present about 50 ¢ in product cost, 47 ¢ in tax and about 3 ¢ in the retail margin.

Factors that drive the oil price:

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries produces about 38 per cent of the world's daily consumption but holds more than 60 per cent of the reserves. While non-OPEC countries produce flat out, it's OPEC that has the flexibility to increase or decrease output. As a result, threats to OPEC production from wars and terrorist action can be alarming. Most analysts will tell you the terrorist "premium" built into the oil price is about $US15 a barrel.

The China factor:

The booming Chinese economy is a new factor in oil demand/prices. China is now the world's second-biggest oil consumer, at about 7 million barrels a day. It is also the fastest-growing. They love their cars as much as anyone else.

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Sat "Melbourne Age"

Cheaper oil a pipe dream
Josh Gordon

The surge in oil prices to record levels has been so rapid it has outstripped the ability of many companies to cope. There is already widespread pain throughout the industrial sector as big users and small are discovering how difficult it is to pass on sudden cost increases.

Many long-standing relationships in the industrial supply chain are going to be severely tested if the world price stays above $US45 a barrel for any period, as suppliers and buyers argue about who should bear the cost.

And it is not small beer. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that the rise from $US35 a barrel in April to $US45 now will add $A3.3 billion to Australia's oil bill if sustained over 12 months. Someone has to meet that extra cost.

"It has become such a serious issue to us we are going to go back to our customers outside of our contractual arrangements to suggest we have got to have the extra money," says Legh Winser, managing director of K&S Corporation, one of the country's biggest hauliers.

Transport companies such as K&S - and Qantas Airways and Virgin Blue Holdings - are in the front line when it comes to oil prices. Fuel represents as much as 30 per cent of K&S's operating costs, so the idea that it might absorb the extra cost is laughable.

Winser says directors thought they had oil prices covered with a system of periodic fuel price reviews with clients monthly and quarterly.

"We usually carry the can for a while . . . but the way diesel has gone up another 10 ¢ a litre, roughly, in the last six weeks of the financial period, we are starting to wonder when we are going to catch up."

He says K&S will look to adopt a surcharge system, as the airlines have, to cover sudden jumps in fuel costs.

"We will be going there. I'm sure the whole industry will," he says.

The quicker companies put new arrangements in place, the better, because there are growing fears that the latest price rise might not be a spike, but a pointer to the future.

Deputy Prime Minister John Anderson yesterday warned that the days of cheap oil could be over, blaming soaring demand and geopolitical tensions.

"It may very well be that the era of cheap oil production has ended," Anderson said.

"Hopefully, though, there's an element that higher prices are part of the solution in that it will encourage further exploration and further development and refining capacity."

Renegotiating fuel supply contracts or imposing a surcharge is an option not available to the vast bulk of companies, however.

"Many small manufacturers do not have price review clauses in their contracts," says Ai Group chief executive Heather Ridout, adding that they would not be as badly affected as 20 or 30 years ago. "Fuel consumption per unit of real GDP (gross domestic product) has fallen by half since the '70s, and that's really been through the better application of technology and just more fuel-efficient practices generally."

She is quick to agree, though, that many of the Ai Group's manufacturing constituents will be copping it in the neck. "The big issue is the ability to pass it on. They just don't have the pricing power."

Apart from the transport industry, manufacturers are the heaviest users of energy. And, even if they are not actually using petrol or diesel to power their industrial processes, the price of oil does bear on overall energy costs thanks to its pivotal role as a benchmark for all energy costs.

Steel makers are voracious consumers of a wide range of energy, and this is reflected in OneSteel's management structure, which includes a team dedicated to co-ordinating the sprawling group's entire energy portfolio.

"We have various price points at which we can switch from using more gas to more electricity, for example," says OneSteel's general manager corporate affairs and marketing, Mark Gell.

With an energy bill measured in tens of millions of dollars, any gains translate to useful increments on the bottom line.

"If they can reduce the energy bill by a few per cent, they are heroes. That happened in 2001 when we helped persuade the NSW Government to drop the electricity distribution levy. That saved us $1.8 million."

Mr Gell is chairman of the Energy Market Reform Forum, which led the debate on the levy on behalf of energy-intensive industries in NSW.

But even where there is no substitute available, changing traditional procedures can pay off handsomely, as borne out by a useful breakthrough in NSW recently.

The company's Sydney electric arc steel furnace is such a large consumer of electricity it can actually move the electricity pricing market in some circumstances.

Up to now, the electricity supplier had the right to turn off the furnace if power was in short supply.

Now OneSteel has that discretion, says Gell.

"When we know there is demand spike coming, we can turn our facility down and sell the energy into the grid, which puts a cap on how high the wholesale electricity price can go," he says.

OneSteel then makes its steel on a cheaper time of day, and schedules maintenance for the peak times.

"People are saying $US45 a barrel is historically high, but let's not forget the last time petrol was $1 a litre, oil was $US36 a barrel.

It was the dollar at US50 ¢ which drove the petrol price up. If the dollar was at US50 ¢ now, the pump price would be about $1.30 a litre.

"Then you would have an issue."

- with Josh Gordon

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Dixons Cider
13th Aug 2004, 17:57
Good onya George W, thanks a lot.
I suppose those Texas oil companies backed by saudi interests wouldn't be too bothered by the barrel price at the moment.
He'll be gettin my vote next time round.
........Yeah right!!

Dixon has spoken

Thylacine
20th Aug 2004, 03:26
Wirraway's post failed to raise much in the way of discusion which was surprising since the price of oil and or its very availability in the near to long term will make a massive impact on the airline business and dare I say the way our Western economies operate.

Can the recent massive orders announced by several Middle East carriers and the reported exponential increase in travel expected to be generated by the new start ups in Asia be sustained?

To generate some discussion I recommend those interested or concerned to check out the URLs and the bottom of this post.

Oil prices concern Asia-Pacific airlines
SMH August 19, 2004 - 4:09AM © 2004 AFP

Record-high oil prices are increasingly becoming a concern for Asia-Pacific airlines despite healthy growth in passenger volumes and capacity, the region's aviation association said.

The Association of Asia-Pacific Airlines (AAPA) said the number of passengers carried by 17 carriers based in the region rose 28 per cent in July from a year ago, while revenue passenger kilometres climbed 25 per cent.

Releasing preliminary figures for the month, AAPA said capacity rose 20.5 per cent, with the passenger load factor rising 2.7 percentage points to 77.5 per cent.

This means that airlines filled 77.5 per cent of available passenger seats for the month, sustaining the industry's recovery from the impact last year of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome health epidemic on travel.

The freight market recorded its fourth consecutive double-digit growth rate in terms of freight tonne kilometres by expanding 19.4 per cent in July, AAPA said.

"Load factors at this level should put the airlines in a strong position to maintain yields, but it goes without saying that fuel prices are an increasing concern," association president Richard Stirland said.

Benchmark oil futures contract prices have been hovering at historic highs near $US47 a barrel due to growing global demand and fears of supply disruptions in major oil producers Russia and Iraq.

Singapore Airlines, which spends one in every five dollars for fuel, has said it was "actively reviewing" the situation to determine whether to increase fuel surcharges.

AAPA groups Air New Zealand, All Nippon Airways, Asiana Airlines, Cathay Pacific Airways, China Airlines, Dragonair, EVA Air, Garuda Indonesia, Japan Airlines, Korean Air, Malaysia Airlines, Philippine Airlines, Qantas Airways, Royal Brunei Airlines, Singapore Airlines, Thai Airways International and Vietnam Airlines.

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17039-2004Jun4.html
http://www.peakoil.net/
http://www.alternet.org/story/18421

Soaring oil price to push up air fares
By Alexandra Smith and Matt Wade
SMH August 20, 2004

Airline passengers on domestic flights may be paying a $9 fuel surcharge on every one-way ticket as early as next week, as Qantas considers increasing the levy because of surging oil prices.

The airline, which yesterday announced a record $648.4 million profit, is likely to increase the surcharge on domestic flights by $3 from the current $6. The levy on international tickets could rise by $5 to $20.

Qantas\'s chief executive, Geoff Dixon, said yesterday that he could see few alternatives to increasing the surcharge. He foreshadowed a decision as early as today or tomorrow following at a Qantas executive meeting.

Virgin Blue is reviewing its $6 one-way fuel surcharge and is expected to make a decision within weeks. "We are not ruling out an increase but we have not yet made a decision," Virgin\'s head of strategy, David Huttner, said.

The price of crude oil reached a record $US47.50 a barrel on Wednesday night, although about 70 per cent of Qantas\'s fuel contracts are locked in for 2004-05 at an average $US32 a barrel.

It is estimated the additional surcharges will raise about $100 million this financial year, taking the total surcharge cover for Qantas to about $400 million.

The oil price rise is likely to push up Sydney petrol prices to $1.15 a litre, analysts say. The average price in Sydney yesterday was $1.06 a litre, according to the price monitoring firm FuelTrac.

But the international crude oil price rise could push prices up another 13 cents a litre in the next few weeks if sustained, FuelTrac\'s spokesman, Chris Kable, said. "The prognosis is not good for motorists, especially in the short term."

Fears that oil production will fall behind robust international demand have underpinned the unexpected oil price rally.

Heavy fighting in Iraq this week has stoked concerns that oil supplies from the Middle East could be disrupted. "It\'s a very emotional [oil] market at the moment," Mr Kable said.

The record oil price was reached despite a report by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) claiming its production capacity could meet world demand until the end of next year.

Yesterday, the Democrats tried to link high petrol prices to the Government\'s foreign policy.

Senator John Cherry said: "Motorists are paying record petrol prices of over $1 a litre because the messy aftermath the Bush-Howard Iraq war has unsettled world oil markets. We are all paying at the bowser for John Howard\'s deceitful campaign in Iraq."

Oil has risen by about $US5 in the past three weeks and is more than 50 per cent higher than a year ago. OPEC said the record oil prices were "as much of a concern to OPEC as they are to consuming nations".

Wirraway
20th Aug 2004, 04:03
Thylacine

Thanks for posting the news clips, I did not post them before
because as you say there was no interest.

I think the subject is a bit over the heads of a lot of people
here on D&G, and they do not realise the implications of what
will happen if the price reaches US$70-80 a barrel.

As Rupert Murdoch said on Tuesday, if we get to these levels
the economy's of the U.S, Japan, China and Europe will be in
real trouble.

Wirraway

TheNightOwl
20th Aug 2004, 04:20
I suspect. Wirraway, that you are correct in that the price-hike consequences are over the heads of some at a cost/barrel of $70 - $80, and in those I include myself! I would sincerely hope that, before that price is arrived at, affected governments will have taken some protective action on our behalf, not just for the interests of their companies at the big end of town. There is no way that I could afford to run a car socially, as well as cope with the attendant price-rises of all household commodities. Where the hell would the Aussie economy be, to say nothing of our individual domestic economies?

Kind regards,

TheNightOwl.:(

Wirraway
20th Aug 2004, 05:08
Nightowl

Have just read 2 of Thylacine's links:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17039-2004Jun4.html

http://www.alternet.org/story/18421

If you read these 2 and your not frightened for your grand kids
you will never be, as they are excellent primers for what is going
to happen not if they will happen.

A must read for sure.

Wirraway

schweinhund
20th Aug 2004, 05:22
Despite the gratious definitions provided above, IMHO, flying Jetstar should actually be defined as the bottom of the barrel.

Wirraway
20th Aug 2004, 05:37
schweinhund

I see from your profile that you have been a member of PPRuNe
for a whole 7 days and you are currently causing havoc in three
of my news postings by personel attacks on long time members
here, I suggest you either get your act together or piss off.

Wirraway

AAP

Expect price hikes as fuel charges bite
August 20, 2004 - 1:53PM

The increase in fuel surcharges for Qantas domestic and international ticket prices announced today was higher than expected and would affect demand the longer it remained in effect, a leading industry consultant said.

Qantas Airways Ltd today raised the fuel surcharge on its domestic and international tickets by $4 and $7, respectively, citing the high price of oil.

The domestic fuel surcharge will rise to $10 from the $6 per sector charge introduced in May.

The surcharge on international sectors will rise to $22 from $15.

Although the hike were widely expect, the quantum of the increases were more than analysts expectations of $2 and $5, respectively.

Centre for Pacific Aviation senior consultant Ian Thomas said the oil price, which has risen about 60 per cent over the past year, was putting presure on economies worldwide and in particular the aviation industry.

"It cuts right trhough the economy but it flows top down from the air transport sector," he said.

Airlines around the world began introducing surcharges in May.

British Airways, Virgin Atlantic and Singapore Airlines have all since increased their levies.

Overnight in New York, the forward price of crude oil settled at a record $US48.70 a barrel, as rising violence in Iraq sparked fresh concerns over supply disruptions.

"Given the direction of oil prices, Qantas is taking a negative view as far forward prices go," Mr Thomas said.

"The extent of the rise indicates Qantas\' initial forecasts were way below market reality, so they have had to pitch themselves more in line with the direction of the market."

If oil stays above $US40 a barrel for a prolonged period the economic impact for the Australian economy is estimated to be in the order of a negative 0.5 per cent, annualised.

"That obviously flows directly into air travel demand and there is a multiplier effect which could actually see a decrease of something like two to three per cent in terms of demand," Mr Thomas said.

Qantas chief executive Geoff Dixon flagged the increases yesterday, when Qantas announced a record annual net profit of $648.40 million and warned rising crude oil prices could add $400 million to its 2004/05 fuel bill.

Fuel is the airline\'s third largest cost, after staff and aircraft operational costs.

Qantas has hedged around 70 per cent of its fuels for 2004/05 at $US32 a barrel.

Analysts have said the company would have avoided hedging the remaining 30 per cent at high prices given that there was a chance oil could come back.

"It\'s likely they will continue with the spot rate at on a small amount but try and offset that with foreign exchange," Mr Thomas said.

The market now awaits word from Virgin Blue, which could follow Qantas\' lead.

In May, Virgin Blue introduced a surcharge of $6 per sector for Virgin Blue domestic flights and $10 per sector for Pacific Blue flights.

Qantas shares were up four cents at $3.30 at 1241 AEST.

Virgin Blue was up three cents at $1.76.

- AAP

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prospector
20th Aug 2004, 08:22
Would it be unfair to assume that Emirates, Gulfair and the other airlines from that neck of the woods would be getting any sort of fuel price advantage with their fuel bills if the present situation does not improve? Maybe that is why they have made such massive orders for new aircraft.

Prospector

schweinhund
20th Aug 2004, 08:47
Wirraway. Thanks for the advice. How do you know that I'm not a long time member here with a new guise? Additionally, your news articles are interesting and often controversial. They necessarily invite controversial comment. I provide it on occasion. Get used to it.

Keep up the good work!:ok:

prospector
20th Aug 2004, 09:10
schweinhund,
How would you deem your reference to Jetstar as being controversial comment in answer to a controversial news article? The article had nothing controversial in it, it was a statement of fact on the rising price of oil, and all the attendant problems that this will bring to the worlds airlines.

Prospector

AirNoServicesAustralia
20th Aug 2004, 09:23
It is very fair to assume that Emirates, Gulf Air, Ettihad and Qatar Airways are getting a big advantage on their bottom line from having access to a lot of cheap fuel. Is it unfair, no not at all. Is it their fault that they are airlines owned and based in country full of oil. Is it unfair that I pay about 40 cents a litre for petrol when you guys in Oz are paying over a dollar. I don't think so! I pay more for vegemite here than you do there. I pay more for a nice bottle of Aussie red wine than you do there.

Is it a reason why they are ordering so many new aircraft? Well there are a number of reasons. I'm sure the clear advantage cheap fuel gives them over other carriers doesn't hurt. But also the fact that aviation in the region is growing by about 10% a year at the moment is also a factor. Also there is a bit of an arms race going on here in relation to trying to be the biggest player in the region. Emirates took that mantle from Gulf Air a while ago, and now Qatar has been fighting for it. And recently along came Ettihad with deeper pockets than either of the other two, and they are determined to be the next big thing.

HAMO
20th Aug 2004, 09:24
Prospector

Well said!

Schweinhund (Chuck Mugutsup/Yorik Hunt etc etc)

OK, it obvious that you have no regard for Jetstar - no problems, thats your opinion and you are entitled to it. But your constant slanging is getting a bit on the boring side. Think we have all heard enough for now.

prospector
20th Aug 2004, 10:03
AirNoServicesAustralia,
No, would not consider using all advantages unfair.

But it would have to be born in mind that it is a finite resource, and reading the articles from the very informative websites in the earlier posts, it is getting more "finito" very rapidly.

It does bring to mind the situation facing Nauru Island, and the fate of its once reasonable sized airline.

Prospector

Don Esson
20th Aug 2004, 11:14
My simple mind finds it difficult to see how Qantas can justify not only the today’s increase of the Fuel Surcharge but also the imposition of a Fuel Surcharge. According to data released yesterday, Qantas has “70 per cent of expected 2004/05 fuel needs hedged”. They went on to say that “100 per cent of expected needs covered until December 2004”.

By drilling a bit deeper, you will see that Qantas’ fuel and oil costs in the year ended 30th June were down 12% (up 3% excluding exchange). There’s the use of smoke and mirrors here as while costs went up by $138 million, there were related off-sets totalling $243.9 million that resulted in a ‘net saving’ of $105.9 million. Therefore, why was a surcharge imposed in May, as much of what is now known was known then? Were the protection given by hedging and exchange gains realised only in May and June after the surcharge was imposed? If so, why aren‘t these benefits being given to Qantas passengers now? Is Qantas ripping and gouging?

The same experience may be repeated this financial year but as Qantas has not yet shown its hand, it is difficult to say for sure if either the surcharge or an increase is justified. Does the Prices Justification Tribunal still exist or is it one of the bodies that the little defender of democracy and free markets aka John Howard abolished? If Qantas budgetted for fuel based on an oil price of US$32 a barrell or less, they are well in the money. Does anyone here have a better understanding of feul hedging and its workings?

AirNoServicesAustralia
20th Aug 2004, 12:05
Yep prospector, the resource is finite, but considering that the UAE (or more specifically the emirate of Abu Dhabi) has at current production over 100 years of oil reserves (not counting any new discoveries or improved extraction techniques making uneconomic reserves economical), I am guessing that they will have banked a hell of a lot of dollars by the time the wells run dry. Something to think about is the fact that Ettihad, when being courted by Airbus as a new customer, were asked to show proof of their liquidity, and instantly produced documents showing holdings of 30 billion US dollars. Even these figures pale, when compared to Qatar who is about to become the world largest producer of natural gas, and they have mind boggling reserves of a material that will still be used well after oil falls by the wayside. The middle eastern airlines are making the most of their geographical position being at the crossroads of Europe, Africa and Asia, and it's just a nice little bonus for them right now that the rising oil prices are putting the squeeze on their competitors.

air-hag
20th Aug 2004, 14:16
SwineHound the bottom of the barrel will be VB if they are forced to hire the fossils who lost their way back to the nursing home.

The blue-rinse set care nothing of the cost of oil in Iraq. They want a PAYOUT!!! Someone has to pay for the sheep-molesters trashing of an Aussie airline when we weren't looking for a few seconds (See? You can't trust 'em.....) and these old dears want smell CA$H at VB.

Wirraway you're getting carried away with your superstar status and blowing up @rse of sunshine (to paraphrase Viper) in recent threads about who's allowed to be first in with news at show-and-tell. It's not nice to tell people to "piss off". Who do you think you are???? :hmm:


Wirraway sorta took the words out of my mouth in regards to mr schweinhund, you can both take it easy take it easy and play nice, lets discuss the subject and not play the man shall we. 'W'

Woomera
20th Aug 2004, 16:04
From what I hear on the bourse, there will be a lot of caps coming off a lot of wells so far considered "uneconomic" if the price gets much higher and/or remains so. Exploration will gain a new momentum.

Then the whole supply dynamic will change, those who now holds the aces may no longer do so much sooner than they think.

There is a gentleman from the ME touring OZ at the moment suggesting that the "world supply" is already at capacity and that we (they) are running out.

Maybe so, but that is at the current prices, see above.

One way or the other the Russians and/or their Govt will sort out their major oil suppliers bankruptcy problems which will restore some sanity, maybe by the time they do, the world will have moved past them once again.

Hang on to your hats folks it's going to be a wild ride and a whole different world. Aces are wild.:O

404 Titan
20th Aug 2004, 17:15
It’s amazing the inflationary effect of fuel prices. If this continues for long you watch what happens to inflation. Soon the Reserve Bank of Australia will have no choice but to move on interest rates and that could spell disaster for Australian families paying off a mortgage. All I can say is if you are thinking of selling your property do it now before interest rates move too high and property prices start coming down. If rates rise fast, Australia could see a property crash the likes it has never seen before, including 1988 when mortgage rates hit 17.0% and some property values fell 20%.

Wirraway
20th Aug 2004, 18:22
Sat "Sydney Morning Herald"

Qantas fuel levy 'money for jam'
By Scott Rochfort
August 21, 2004

Qantas's plans to slug passengers with an additional fuel surcharge from Thursday has drawn criticism even from stockbroking analysts, who say the carrier stands to profit handsomely from the new charge.

Given Qantas will be fully protected against the recent spike in crude oil prices until December 31, ABN Amro described the extra surcharge as "money for jam".

The airline even trumped chief executive Geoff Dixon's original estimates of the new charges when he delivered Qantas's record full-year net profit of $648 million on Thursday.

Qantas will lift its one-way surcharge from $6 to $10 for Qantas domestic, Jetstar and QantasLink flights - higher than the $9 originally flagged by Mr Dixon.

And the $7 increase in international one-way surcharges (per sector) to $22, was above the $5 increase estimated by the Qantas chief during the week.

ABN Amro estimated the new domestic surcharge would boost Qantas revenues by $100 million a year, while the international charge would add $70 million.

Qantas's crude oil hedging contracts begin to expire in the new year, leaving it partially exposed to higher prices. But even so, Goldman Sachs JBWere estimates the fuel surcharge will now raise around $424 million this fiscal year versus the estimated $390 million rise in Qantas's fuel bill, leaving a $34 million profit.

With oil prices closing in on $US49 a barrel on Friday, Mr Dixon said the extra surcharge was necessary to cover the huge leap in aviation fuel charges since the first charge was introduced in May.

"At that time, jet fuel was about $US44 a barrel, the highest it had been for 14 years," he said in a media release. "Jet fuel is now more than $US54 a barrel, almost double its price of $US28 a barrel 15 months ago."

The airline said that by having 70 per cent of its fuel needs for 2004-05 hedged at $US32 a barrel, it still faced a $400 million higher fuel bill at current prices. But it failed to mention it was fully hedged against price increases until December 31.

Fuel represents around 13 per cent of Qantas's overall costs. On Thursday, the airline said its fuel bill for 2003-04 fell 12 per cent to $1.36 billion, thanks in part to the stronger dollar.

Another analyst said one had to "question the appropriateness" of the surcharge which he labelled as "opportunistic".

But Qantas chief financial officer Peter Gregg dismissed any suggestion the airline was profiteering from the new charge.

"That is completely wrong and it shows a lack of understanding of how the substantial increase in jet fuel prices is affecting the aviation industry and Qantas," Mr Gregg said.

Virgin Blue will hold a meeting early next week to decide whether it will increase its surcharge.

Given that Virgin has far less protection against rising oil prices than Qantas, it is expected the airline will promptly follow suit.

It is estimated Virgin's fuel contracts are 50 per cent hedged until October, when the hedging cover drops to 20 per cent.

When Qantas introduced its first surcharge in May, Virgin responded within two days.

Analysts said the main disadvantage for Virgin, however, was that its passengers were more sensitive to price increases, unlike Qantas's higher-yielding customers.

Qantas, meanwhile, defended comments made by chairwoman Margaret Jackson to an analysts' briefing on Thursday afternoon.

Ms Jackson told analysts her comments at the earlier media briefing about the "significant challenges" Qantas faced from government-owned Middle Eastern carriers, such as Emirates Airline, were aimed at politicians and not the market.

Qantas spokesman Michael Sharp said: "Margaret Jackson said that her comments were just a statement of the facts on the industry and weren't intended to spook the market."

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