Plenty of jobs right around the corner!

[Fred4000]

http://www.aviation.co.nz/Publications/CTCtrainingv2.pdf

This is an interesting article. Demonstrating that in a few years time a significant and damaging pilot shortage may well occur.

[IRRenewal]

This is an interesting article. Demonstrating that in a few years time a significant and damaging pilot shortage may well occur

I'd claim the same if I was in the business of selling flight training.

[redsnail]

Scanned quickly, realised it was by CTC who sell courses so not suprised they've put that spin on it.
Most flying schools have been talking about this "shortage" since Pontious was a Pilate. :D

[Tinstaafl]

Have they been talking to McDonalds HR dept. again?

[Fred4000]

McDonalds?

Yeah it is by a flight school but his comments are justified by the stats and common sense.

[Mooney12]

http://education.independent.co.uk/careers_advice/aerospace/story.jsp?story=472046

"A future in the cockpit has never looked so rosy!

[scroggs]

There never has been a shortage of ab-initio frozen ATPL qualified pilots, amd there never will be. Such shortages as have ever existed were always for type rated pilots with significant hours. The market certainly has peaks and troughs, but there has never been (and will never be) a time when all those who'd like to fly airliners for a living will succeed.

Remember, all flying schools rely on your custom for their survival. If they can persuade you that your investment is 'guaranteed' to make a return, they get your money and they get to exist for a little longer - hopefully making a profit in the process. Throughout the recent difficulties, most schools have been trumpeting a future shortage of pilots. In fact, come to think of it, they've been doing that at least since I started flying in the mid 1970s.

Treat all such articles as little better than marketing-speak. Read your aviation history and make a more balanced judgement of the realities of life.

Scroggs

[witchdoctor]

I agree Scroggs.

I started my training in early 2001. There was allegedly a huge pilot shortage coming then too. Guess what happened next?

Even though things would appear to be on the up again, we're still a long way short of the employment levels of 3 years ago. Take any 'damaging' shortfalls with a pinch of salt.

[The Potter]

I also agree with Scroggs. I went to one of the biggest flight training establishments in the UK in 1997 with promises of pilot shortages right around the corner, airlines recruiting directly from them for their ab initios &, "never been better prospects" etc. etc. When I'd handed over my £40,000 I found out that the only recruitment that had taken place was for their own instructors to move onto the regional carriers. I left in spring 1999 with my CPL/IR & it took me until May 2000 to get my first flying job as a tug pilot & until 2001 to get my first ariline job on a turbo prop. I now fly the B757 for a charter company so I did make it. It took a monumental amount of effort & time to get here, & believe me, it is never as easy as the flying schools make out once you have qualified.

I was flying with a Captain last September who was saying that he'd read an article published by Oxford that there was an imminent pilot shortage & that forecasts for spring 2004 were for, yes, you've guessed it, a pilot shrtage. Well where is it? For those of us with jet ratings there may well be jobs but they are still not easy to come by. For the majority of those of you without a type rating it is still a very difficult time & will very probably remain so. :sad:

I'm not saying to give up, or not to bother, but just go in with your eyes open & be prepared for it both financially & emotionally. Only belive what you see, hear & know to be true & not the over enthusiatic propaganda put out by Oxford, BAe Systems, Cabair & so on, they need your custom first & foremost whatever the state of the employment market.:ouch:

[big_g]

I think you guys have hit on a big issue. I met steve billet during the ctc stage 2 selection day and what he said was almost identical to the article that was posted. What he said about the demographic of pilots may have truth in it, but there is still a lot of trained pilots still looking for work, it might only be when the supply of type rated experienced pilots diminishes will the airlines start using ab initio and low hours pilots as it does cost a considerable amount of money to type rate a pilot and even more to ab initio traing a pilot. This factor of money is also a significant issue as a large number of airlines are still expeiencing challenging financial times , i can understand why airlines are reluctant spending 7 figures on training 10-15 ab inito pilots a year.
I really hope there is an upturn in the demand for pilots, like most of the people here i dream of leaving the office desk for a career as an airline pilot, but i will only be completely convinced that there is a shortage when industry analysts start saying it.

g.

[Mooney12]

big_g - was that the ctc cadet sponsorship scheme?

I have been thinking about this. The stats do indicate that more pilots will be required in the future, however when you consider that 1500 people get a frozen ATPL a year that puts it into context. Seeing as it says here there are only 10 500 commercial pilots in the UK, 1500 new frozen ATPL holders every year is a massive amount.

However if air travel is expected to double and 17% of pilots are set to retire this does indicate a sizeable increase in jobs on the market soon. depending on the macro economic and political conditions of course. There will however be no shortage, there never will be. 1500 ATPL graduates a year is more than enough to cope. But I do agree with the independant article that in the context of commercial aviation the future does look fairly bright.

[Flypuppy]

MYT have today announced that they are withdrawing their entire Boeing fleet from service with a loss of up to 118 pilot jobs. The last remaining DC10 will also go making a total of nine aircraft (5 757s, 3 767s and the DC10).

Well, that knocks a few back down the food chain a bit I guess.

There is probably enough new positions for 75-100 people (to account for expansion or new start ups, in a good year), and movement further up the food chain accounts for probably about 300 places for more experienced bods moving out of night freight/instructing/regional turbo props (again in a good year).

So all in all there is probably not much more annual requirement for new pilots than the output of 1 mid sized flying school.

[P1 Forever]

Mooney12 - Are you serious "1500 fATPL's a year"

I know Oxford gives out around 200 per year and Cabair around 180 therefore where do the rest come from?

I was choking drinking my tea when I read your post!

I thought it was more like 600-700 per year. What chance do I have with that amount entering the industry???

Cheers for now!

P1.

[Mooney12]

I was told 1500 by the head guy in an aviation training school. Maybe I heard wrong, maybe he got it wrong?!

He also said only 1/3 of those getting fATPLs get a job per year.

Has anyone else heard about this?

[P1 Forever]

Hi Mooney,

I hope he did get it wrong, for everyone's sake, although 1/3 chance of getting a job in a year I could live with.

I would like to know the real figures and perhaps the percentage who did integrated/modular - not that that matters but it is interesting to see what your up against.

P1

[Flypuppy]

He also said only 1/3 of those getting fATPLs get a job per year.

Has anyone else heard about this?

I guess you didnt read my post then?

It doesnt take a Degree in Hard Sums to figure out how many pilots are required in an average year, and it is not likely to exceed 4-500, even in the so called boom years. Of that number a certain percentage of those jobs will be filled with people coming into the UK from Oz NZ RSA etc. who have the right to live and work in the UK.

The current best guesstimate of fully tooled up CPL/IR (fATPL) + MCC annual production is approx 700.

Some will give it up (easy to do when life is taking a dump in your teapot).
Some will go abroad, for example to Africa for Bush flying.
Some will die.

This still leaves a surplus of a couple of hundred people - at least.

The difference between modular and integrated is unlikley to make any difference. You have the same JAA licence which carries the same priveleges.

[Flypuppy]

As far as I am aware there are no figures produced by the CAA documenting the annual issue of CPL/IR's, so it is only going to be a best guess how many people are churned out of flying schools in the UK. 1500 sounds somewhat high though. Last I had heard the output of IR issues since 2001 has dropped dramtically from about 6-700 per year to 3-400 per year

The figures I have used in my previous post are based largely on presumption, guessology and watching what has been happening in the UK aviation industry for the last 7-8 years. It is no more than my opinion. It could of course be complete bollox.

Maybe if one of the moderators reads this they could try and persuade someone who may know a little more about this than some fat bloke with a CPL to comment.

[El Desperado]

Well, as happens on a cyclic basis in this industry, 120 type-rated, high-houred pilots are about to come onto the market. F/Os will typically have around 3000 to 8000 hours, captains 5000 to 15000+ hours, all with narrow and wide-body jet experience.

This will probably hold up the transfer of turbo-prop pilots to jets, and thus new CPL/IR holders from light-a/c to turbo/p jobs.

Shortage ?? Not in this country, for low-houred light a/c CPL holders. Nope.

Abroad, for qualified type-rated pilots ?? Doesn't look bad.

Doesn't mean you shouldn't go for the course, send in the CVs and do the best you can, but don't necessarily believe the stories about a shortage. If you don't go for it, you won't get it, but be under no illusion - it's a dangerous world out there :D

[Mooney12]

The 1500 figure came from a phase two presentation at the ctc cadet sponsorship scheme. Im racking my brains here because 1500 does seem very very high, but Im sure its 1500 that he said. But as I say, I could be mistaken, I can't be 100%.

I am 100% sure that he stated 33% get a job, the rest don't.

I read the article again and it does state that according to governement figures air travel is set to double. You only have to look at all the airports building new runways to realise this. I still think therefore that the future looks bright for pilots, not so bright for the environment.

[scroggs]

1500 sounds on the high side to me; I'd be happier to believe a figure of 5-700. However, I'd agree that no more than a third of fATPL graduates get a job in their year of graduation - and it's probably less than that. As for retirements, 100% of all currently flying pilots will retire! The proportion of the total that retires in any given year will be roughly the same; any peaks and troughs will be minor and (despite the claims of some) will not result in recruiting bonanzas for fATPLs.

Will air travel double - and over how long? I don't know, but watching the environmentalist and Nimby campaigns against all major infrastructure developments over the last few years leads me to believe that it won't expand in UK, or the West generally, as quickly as the analysts suggest. There's plenty of scope in Africa and Asia - but then they have plenty of people of their own to train and take those jobs, and you can be certain that they will want their own people to take those jobs!

Overall this is a good time for aviation recruiting in UK, but MyTravel's decision to ditch its Boeing fleet and personnel shows how precarious things are, even in the good times. The Times today has an article debating the effects that a property 'crash' would have on our economy, and the author reckons that such a crash is coming. I can tell you that one of the first things to go when people feel their wealth decrease is leisure spending. That translates instantly into fewer holidays, and thus fewer flights - and suddenly we're back into downsizing fleets and laying off (or at least not replacing) flight crews. It takes so little to reverse good fortune!

Don't expect nirvana just yet!

Scroggs

[JB007]

To my knowledge, and this could have changed - the only way the CAA used to record statistics towards people doing fATPL's was the amount of people applying for Class 1 medicals - which means nothing really - I held a class 1 before going solo for my PPL, most people with any sense going onto professional training would do the same...

[wheelbarrow]

118 My Travel redundancies...............says it all really.

THERE WILL NEVER BE A WORLDWIDE PILOT SHORTAGE.

[onthebuses]

I tried for a career as a pilot in 1992-3, I contacted many FTO's and quite a few of them were predicting a shortage due 'any day now'. Did that one ever happen????

If only life were that easy eh??,

I really do hope that I can find a decent job flying when I (hopefully) reach fATPL in 2006ish, but I am well aware how quickly things can change in any business, aviation really is just the same as the rest and I know it. My problem is that I am an aviator at heart, always have been, even as a child, and always will be, and I just HAVE to put that in it's box.

So, as I can't see forward, I have to plan forward, one small painful costly step at a time, and who knows where I will end up?. Thats the problem when you have a lack of relevant experience.

I do have a 'B-plan' though, if it all does not work out, sure the aviator will still be inside me but I will then be able to say I gave it a decent bash.

I think you need many skills to be sucessful as a pilot, and interview/job hunting skills are one of the most important. This is where many, IMO fail, Those with 'the mix' that prepare themselves WILL get there, there are many prooners who have proved this on here, and I am sure there are many more out there.

OTB:ok: