alosaurus
17th Sep 2001, 00:02
Some city analysts are coming out with the most outrageous forecasts of long term passenger traffic reduction.These are finding there way onto this forum via people who seem to get a kick out of trying to create insecurity.One of The Governors latest gems is that"traffic will reduce by 50-67% over the next couple of years"
THIS IS JUST NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!!
Here are some facts drawn from analysis of our industry over the last thirty years.
1 World Revenue Passenger Miles are directly related to World Gross Domestic Product(the broadest indicator of economic activity)If both are plotted since 1970 you will see the peaks and troughs mirror each other almost exactly.Roughly speaking a 1% fall in WGDP equates to a 2% fall in WRPMs
2 Over the same period the largest ever two year fall in WRPMs was 11% at the end of the 1970s (67%?????)
Question-what exactly is going to cause world traffic to reduce at the 67% forecast by our razor sharp analyst.
Answer-A 32% reduction in World Gross Domestic Product.
Problem- The worst recent history reducion in WGDP over two years was 6%.So how can anyone suggest 32%?
If you add together the combined effects of our last three recessions ie
- The 1970s fuel crisis
- The longest recession at the turn of the 1980s
- The Gulf war crisis
This still amounts to a reduction in WGDP of less than 15%
This information is used by Boeing and Airbus Industrie as a Key Performance Indicator to extrapolate into the future and predict airline requirements.I offer it as a reality check against the uninformed ramblings of city analysts and those who take their word as gospel.
:mad:
THIS IS JUST NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!!
Here are some facts drawn from analysis of our industry over the last thirty years.
1 World Revenue Passenger Miles are directly related to World Gross Domestic Product(the broadest indicator of economic activity)If both are plotted since 1970 you will see the peaks and troughs mirror each other almost exactly.Roughly speaking a 1% fall in WGDP equates to a 2% fall in WRPMs
2 Over the same period the largest ever two year fall in WRPMs was 11% at the end of the 1970s (67%?????)
Question-what exactly is going to cause world traffic to reduce at the 67% forecast by our razor sharp analyst.
Answer-A 32% reduction in World Gross Domestic Product.
Problem- The worst recent history reducion in WGDP over two years was 6%.So how can anyone suggest 32%?
If you add together the combined effects of our last three recessions ie
- The 1970s fuel crisis
- The longest recession at the turn of the 1980s
- The Gulf war crisis
This still amounts to a reduction in WGDP of less than 15%
This information is used by Boeing and Airbus Industrie as a Key Performance Indicator to extrapolate into the future and predict airline requirements.I offer it as a reality check against the uninformed ramblings of city analysts and those who take their word as gospel.
:mad: