Flybe airbus announcement?...

[prob30]

word out of exeter is that flybe will be making an announcement 'regarding airbus' later this month... anyone know anymore? What is the lead time between ordering and delivery?

[EGAC_Ramper]

Wouldn't nkow,though there have always been rumours regarding replacements for the 146,type commonly mentioned was the B737 but as I say its been all rumours and speaking to FlyBe 146 jockeys they have been asked to move onto the Q400.


Regards

P.S. Wouldnt mind seeing FlyBE Airbus though:ok:

[MerchantVenturer]

On an unofficial site devoted to Exeter Airport there is a rumour that Flybe will announce A 319 orders at the Farnborough Air Show.

Would there be sufficient pax on some of their regional airport routes currently served by 146 a/c to fill a 319?

If it is to be Airbus I wonder what sort of deal they will get compared to easyJet, albeit Flybe's order would doubtless be for far fewer aircraft.

[EGAC_Ramper]

Well as for pax numbers I can only account for their 2 146's based at EGAC.They fly the BHX and LGW routes with pax ranging from 60-90 currently.Through the summer though they are very full.

Regards

[GoEDI]

The Airbuses would be used to expand their International network, particularly from Scotland or N of BHX as their 146s don't have the legs.

[NWSRG]

The A319 may be a bit big for some FlyBe routes, but what about the A318? Buying both would provide a lot of flexibility and room for growth.

[carlos vandango]

they would then need to pay Airbus salaries if they would hope to keep anybody on it.

[Smokie]

Yep! Carlos you hit the nail right on the head.

WRT Cost, a little birdy told me that Flybe are paying similar leasing cost for a Q400, to what Easy are paying for their brand spanking shiny new A319's.

Probably about right, what with the company tumble dryer on full spin down below 50 N.










Off to Toulouse anyone? nah...didn't think so...........

[JobsaGoodun]

I'm not so sure that 319's would be too big. It would be very unlikely that Flybe would configure them to seat 156 pax, 140 would be more like it, in which case they are only approx 25% larger but significantly more economical. If such an order is coming I would expect it to be in the region of 10 firm plus maybe 10 options.

Flybe are making an attempt to cover the middle ground between the likes of BA and BMI compared with Easyjet. Offering slightly more in terms of comfort for slightly more in terms of cost. Very similar to the old GO concept. Before I get my head cut off...I know that Flybe cannot be compared to GO in many ways yet..but they are on their way and becoming quite important in the industry at fighting the 'middle ground'.

I know for a fact that Flybe could certainly fill an extra 30 seats on many routes, in particular some of the summer routes into Spain would not be difficult...just look at the load factors they get out of EXT and SOU to AGP/ALC.

With regards pay....well i'm not so sure things will change greatly. I'm more under the impression that most of the crews simply want a more stable roster in many respects. Fewer changes and less roster turbulence. Yes pay is an issue but it isn't the most important factor for many.

[Torquelink]

Can the A319 do SOU to ALC etc? I thought there were significant runway/obstacle restrictions. Ditto for 73NGs?

[aeulad]

The 319, 318 and the 73g and 736 coule do SOU-FAO/AGP easily, even in the height of summer.

Going on current fleet capacity, the 146-300s seat 110 pax, therefore a jump to a 318 or 319 is not all that demanding.

Routes that could support larger a/c include

JER-LGW
GCI-LGW
BHX-JER/GCI
BHX-TLS
BHX-BHD
BHX-GLA
BHX-EDI
SOU-ALC
SOU-AGP
SOU-MJV
EXT-ALC
EXT-AGP
EXT-FAO
BHD-LGW

So as you can see, there is potential there for at least 10 a/c with more routes to be announced soon.

Regards

Mike

[MerchantVenturer]

JobsaGoodun and auelad

I've checked the CAA provisional figures for May and I'm beginning to see what you mean.

The flights from EXT to ALC, AGP and FAO appear to be averaging loads of over 90 pax. Perhaps they ought to run the ALC and FAO daily.

I've also checked the BRS easyJet and CWL bmibaby figures for these dedstinations (albeit baby don't fly to FAO from CWL) and the scheduled pax are broadly the same as last year in numbers, so they don't appear to have come from those places.

So where have all these extra pax for the EXT flights come from?
The charter figures for these destinations are down a bit but not to the extent that they would anywhere near account for the extra pax. Just shows that airlines can create a market with the right product.

I can't understand why no-one tries Norwich. Surely it would do as well as EXT.

[aeftutor]

With regards to FlyBe operating either A319's or B737NG's out of SOU, the problem would not be performance but apron/stand space. There are currently only 2, yes TWO, stands capable of taking that size of a/c!

[keepitlit]

simple,im sure with the extra income the airport could make a bigger apron!

rgds
K.I.L.:ok:

[hapzim]

And GCI without a runway extention will be very limiting. It is in a 146 so all the Airbus and Boeing toys will not be able to be used to capacity.:suspect:

[JobsaGoodun]

MV,

Norwich has come up many times in the past regarding Flybe and the potential for it to be a new base. It would initially appear to be a good option with the poor road links it has and the good inbound tourism however there are a couple problems.

Norwich would supply a large catchment area but the main fact is; How many people live within that large area? I'm unsure if there are sufficient people living within the area to warrant the supply of seats that a new base would add.

The population in this area is sparse and with Luton and Stansted not overly far away (albeit not easy to get too) I wonder just how successful a low cost base at Norwich would be.

[MerchantVenturer]

JobsaGoodun

I have to hold up my hand and say that I have never worked in the aviation, travel or transport industry of any sort, but public transport economics (especially aviation) do interest me - I love flying anyway.

It just seems to me that Norwich is the sort of place that would suit Flybe. However, I hear what you say and I see from your profile that you work in the industry so I am sure you know more than I about the subject.

You mention the cost of setting up a base. I believe Flybe operate to five destinations from BRS but do not base a/c or crews there. Perhaps the water could be tested at Norwich with a similar operation.

BTW, I have no connection with Norwich - only been there once on a 24 hour business trip many years ago.

[trainer too 2]

MV

How can one look up de CAA figures?

Cheers

:8

[MerchantVenturer]

http://www.caa.co.uk/erg/erg_stats/default.asp

The above link will take you to the CAA statistics Home Page.

On the top left you will see a series of headings - UK Airport Statistics, UK Airport Provisional Statistics, UK Airline Statistics etc.

Most only take you up to the figures for March 2004 at present. However, the provisional statistics include figures for May 2004 for certain headings, including UK airport international routes and UK airport passenger figures.

To get the latest provisional figures click on UK Airport Provisional Statistics which will bring up a page giving you the option of April's or May's figures. Click on May then wait for the page headings for UK airport international routes and UK airport passenger statistics to appear, before clicking on the one you want and you will see the figures.

The international routes don't include individual airlines but where only one airline covers a route (eg easyJet Bristol to Barcelona) you can obviously see how that airline is doing on that route.

The figures cover both charter and scheduled passengers, broken down under relevant headings.

The stats are given in two formats, viz Comma Separated Value (csv) or Adobe Acrobat (pdf). They are best viewed using pdf.

[JobsaGoodun]

MV

I agree with what you say and Norwich would certainly be an option for Flybe. Infact a few years back as Jersey European, a new route was intially planned to link NWI to BHX with a thrice daily Shorts 360 service similar to the one between EXT and BHX. Seats were initially sold but the route was withdrawn before any flights were operated.

I think that given the current state of the market; potential overcapacity, profit warnings from the big two with falling share prices, and the predictions of the 'mother of all fare wars', Flybe will be treating this winter as one of consolodation. A few routes may be added to existing bases but a new base may be out of the equation until next spring/summer.

The final few Q400's (of the 17 firm orders) will be delivered over the winter season leaving a couple for 2006. I would expect the first indications of a new base would come if Flybe take up any of the 20 options still held on the Q400.

I think that as you say NWI is an area in need of new regional servies of the like that Flybe can provide, and indeed it may be under consideration for all I know but indications earlier this year suggested that the next new base would be in the north. Leeds, Manchester, Blackpool or Carlisle may also be an option

[bmibaby.com]

I've always thought that the 117-seat Boeing 717 or the 100 seat ERJ-195 would have been a more ideal aircraft replacement for flybe than the larger Airbus & Boeing 737s, because there would not be a huge jump in capacity, and 717s do quite well performance wise on airports with small runways, limited apron space etc.

Have flybe considered these types? Or are they only looking at cerca 140 seaters?

[JobsaGoodun]

bmibaby,

Flybe have certainly looked at the EMB190 but ruled this out as too small. Smaller than the 146 it would replace with only 108 seats available.

The 717 has been ruled out due to it's size and very few buyers. Remember that Flybe is made up of both the airline and the engineering arm. It is therefore key that whichever aircraft Flybe chooses it will have other users within western Europe.

There would be no point getting the 717 when the nearest other carriers are in the US or Australia......who elses aircraft can you make money from by servicing???

319 and 73G are therefore the most likely options and with Boeing's production line full for the next few years it appears that Airbus may be the favoured option.

[carlos vandango]

Did they not cancel the options on the Q400's?
If they go for buses then good luck to them but as I said before..they'd need to pay the wages. Not too many people are gonna take £46k for lhs bus in SOU if they can get £67k up the road. As for lifestyle..well it's no better (or worse) in Flybe than it is in any other UK scheduled operator (except BA). End result = they will have to pay market rate for bus drivers or they won't keep them (which is why I don't think Jimbo will play with buses or boeings!)

[Wycombe]

...and how much did he get for BAE cancelling the RJX?

[IB4138]

JobsaGoodun

"There would be no point in getting the 717, when the nearest other carriers are in the US or Australia"
__________________________________________________

Not true my boy!

There are seven of the craft in Europe, four operated in Spain by AeBal, a subsidiary of Spanair. They hold options on a further 16.

I flew AGP-MAD-MAH on one only two weeks ago and back MAH-MAD, two days later.

Far more comfy from a passenger cabin point of view than an A319 or 73G.

[JobsaGoodun]

IB4138 - I stand corrected however the point I was trying to make was that the potential revenue stream from servicing 717 in Europe is slim with so few of the type sold. Flybe stand a better chance with either 737/319 types.

In response to the wage issue. There is always more money out there if you want to find it, that is a fact of the industry we live in. However i'm pretty sure that there are plenty of people out there who would also love to be earning even £46k each year. For some, the upheaval of moving and setting up home, potentially away from their family, for an extra £15k is simply not attractive enough.

The pay is unlikely to go up significantly but you can bet the type rating will attract a hefty bond and this is how they'll retain the crews once on type!

Wycombe - Flybe got very little for the RJX - they were bleeding cash at the time of the cancellation and BAe knew that. As a result it came as a blessing in disguise and given the current status of the company and path it is trying to tread it would have been wrong to aquire them anyway

[Trislander]

The 319 and 737 have more powerful engines, GCI has a summer service to Malta I think on a 737. Probably a rated t/o though.

Also there are more stands than two at SOU that can easily accomodate a 73/319: Stands 2-5, 8-10. only 6 and 7 might be a bit too short.

Tri

[johnwalton]

"There would be no point in getting the 717, when the nearest other carriers are in the US or Australia"

Don't Olympic Airlines also operate the 717?

[hapzim]

Trislander.

Havent heard of the GCI - Malta service, but if an adhoc is occuring it will no doubt have a reduced payload or and early tech stop for fuel, dueto the runway lenght.

[SOU-Bloke]

Also there are more stands than two at SOU that can easily accomodate a 73/319: Stands 2-5, 8-10. only 6 and 7 might be a bit too short.
Not true I'm afraid. Proximity to the runway, and therefore the sideslope, means that aircraft on Stands 6-12 have a maximum tail height of about 10 metres (I forget the exact height).

Stands 2, 3 and 4 are the only ones that can take 737/319/320/757. And depending on which of those aircraft it is, there are width restrictions as well... e.g. if a 757 is on 3 or 4, the stands adjacent are restricted to an E145 or D328.

Basically, any operator who wanted to base aircraft of those types at SOU would be severely restricted. There can realistically be no more than 2 on the ground at any one time.

[Trislander]

Apologies, not Malta, Madeira. Maybe it goes via Portugal?:confused:

Was not aware of those stand allocation issues, but I have seen on a number of occasions B737's parked on stands 11-12. There were two on those very stands at the same time about 2 or 3 years back.:8

Tri

[SOU-Bloke]

We did indeed used to park 737's on stands 9/10/11, but when these were self manoeuvring stands the tail was at the rear of the stand, thus further from the runway and measured to place it under the sideslope.

Now that stands 9-11 have been converted to four nose-in stands, that removes that possibility, and given that we're pretty full anyway, we can't park aircraft like previously, off of the new stand markings.

If only the car park was a little further back... ho hum...

[Wycombe]

....plenty of open space the other side of the runway, though. Presumably, if it was easy to develop that it would have already been done?

[SOU-Bloke]

Difficult to say what COULD'VE happened, but yes, planning permission there is very difficult as it's next to a Country Park, and the local council are quite tough to deal with... although supportive generally, they are also very mindful of issues with local residents.

BAA have bought the land in which the SAM VOR currently sits, at the North East corner of the airfield, and although it is earmarked for 'business use', there is the possibility of it being used for aircraft parking in the longer term, but not for a good few years yet.

Basically, it's the current 12 stands for the next few years at least.

[er82]

Don't think Flybe will get an Airbuses or Boeings for a while yet. Quite a few 146 drivers are being put back on the Dash. More than likely that we might lease one or two a/c for EXT and SOU to do the Spanish routes, but would probably lease the crew as well. Possibly expect a few more Q400's than originally ordered...

[ALLMCC]

Is it possible there's been a change of plan and they will exercise some of the held options on the Q400 - then they can go for increased frequencies rather than increased capacity given the economic running costs of the Q400. If they do this would there be any requirement for 100+ seater aircraft other than for the longer sectors where the Q400 wouldn't have the range?

[EGAC_Ramper]

Like said about pilots of 146's, a few guys at Belfast City are being asked to go onto the Dash-8 Q400.We now have 4 of these birds nightstopping with 1 lonely Dash-8 300 which runs back and forth to IOM and LCY.
Still would like to see FlyBe A319's though.:ok:


Regards

[beauport potato man]

The Dash 8 revolution continues........

Can't quite see how the other LCC's haven't caught on yet.

The future's bright..... and Dash-Shaped.

[EGAC_Ramper]

Never liked the Q400 when it first appeared though now it has grown on me and hopefully 2 years time I'll be flying one...lol if all goes to plan:ok:

[beauport potato man]

Good luck EGAC_ramper.....

I'll see you on it when they move me off the 146.

BPM

[EGAC_Ramper]

Hope so.......;)

[er82]

Beauport Potato Man
Do I detect a hint of sarcasm in your post? You seemed more than happy when you got to fly it! And lets be fair, it's certainly a step up from the 2 and 300's. It's a nice piece of kit, and perfect for regional routes. All Flybe need to do now is get rid of the 146's, and replace them with some decent jets. I look forward to haing you return to my wonderful Dash - you'll have to start concentrating when you land again instead of letting the 146 handle it oh so easily!;)

[ATIS]

I thought that Flybe's ultimate aim was to float or at least be sold on. Surely having a bunch of brand new jets would look a lot more attractive to potential buyers. Awaiting Farnborough announment with anticipation.

[beauport potato man]

er82.

No sarcasm at all. Q400's are the way forward, i've no doubt about it.

I've heard easyJet are kicking themselves about ordering airbus - they can't believe the answer was there in front of them. All along. (probably there all along coz it couldnt move as it was tech)

I am personally looking forward to Spain on the Q400.

Is it still "Q" after 3 hours?

As for me. Dash again? No. Be long gone by then

[Tower Ranger]

Q400`s , why don`t they just start on stand that way when they realise they`ve gone tech again they wouldn`t be blocking the taxiway. Once they get airborne the performance is amazing but surely the reliability figures must be among the worst for a modern a/c.

[EGAC_Ramper]

I've noticed one of the Q400's seem to be more "problematic" than others.This one being G-JEDP,I feel however from when the first Q400's arrived the tech problems ocurred quite a bit but have noticed a decrease in problems.Possibly through FlyBe getting a better understanding of them,I dunno just speculating.


Regards

[Ben Evans]

Its sad to see a business that just responds to the market and adapts to conditions rather than dominates or changes them. Poor old Jersey are going to end up with a fleet of long thin turboprops serving UK only airports. There may be money therein. There may even be a long term business in that.

But its not much to get excited about is it? They survive only because nobody with a clean draft of paper choses to compete. They survive only because no airline of any size wants their business. They survive inspite of truly tragic management, punctuality, cramped aircraft and naff premium product.

Recent attempts to take people 900nm to the Med in 146's and turboprops prove interesting - if not sustainable in the long term.

They thrash around not knowing what they want to be and as a result keep changing their fleet, their routes and their branding. Meanwhile they keep their crews in taxis and their accounts a closely guarded secret - although their market leading low pay for pilots is somewhat more well known. £49,800 for a 100+ seat Jet Skipper anyone?

Nice people and excellent operators. Just a rubbish company.

Ben.

[er82]

BPM

The Q400 is a lot quieter than your noisy 146!
And we won't be doing Spain on it, that's what we'll need the new jets for.
With any luck you will be long gone - and I'll have joined you! x

[ATIS]

er82

Maybe upfront, but defin not in the back. The constant vibrating was starting to wear thin. Noise was defin more than 146

[Smokie]

The dear ole Shed was a Cadilac in comparison to the Q400 Pax wise. I 've never been bounced around or shaken so much in my life, let alone been pole axed on the landings.

Rumour has it only ex Naval pilots are allowed to fly the "Q400"
wonder why??

An Engineer at BHX assures me that they are gradually shaking themselves to bits. One in the Hangar at EXT bears wittness to this.

Also, I've never seen a control column bounced around so much on the approach once the auto pilot has been disconected either, even in virtually calm conditions. ( Full Flap Turbulance around the Tailplane apparently).

There is something very seriously wrong with this aircraft.
The old adage "If it looks right, then it is right" certainly holds true with this aircraft( term used very loosely as it rarely flies)
This one most certainly does not look right!!

Looking forward to the announcement at Farnborough with interest. Whether it be the mass resignations of the "Management" or a firm order for 50+ more Q400's with an option for a further 20...................




Through trauma to a saner world.:ouch:

[Trislander]

There have been teething problems with the Q400 as with all brand new aircraft, but as flybe av. svcs. learn about these problems they are doing a great job of sorting them out.

The Q400 is actually no louder in the cabin than most regional jet airliners inc. the 146/CRJ because of it's noise and vibration supression system.

I disagree with you ben. Just because flybe are low-fares they do not have to fit the 'easyjet-ryanair-bmibaby' business model. Flybe have found a niche market with the routes they do and we have a lot of happy regular customers. There is a demand out there for the routes they do and the other low-fare airlines do not have the right equipment for the job.

My guess is that they will be getting the 319 but basing most of them in bases other than SOU. Not for a couple of years yet but in the interim replace the old 142's with RJ100's - better perfomance, 112 seats across the whole jet fleet.:ok: