lame
27th May 2004, 09:33
Airbus sees high rise for Asia Pacific airlines
May 27, 2004
Aircraft manufacturer Airbus believes the Asia Pacific will overtake the United States as the major air traffic region worldwide over the next 20 years.
In the next 20 years, the number of aircraft operated by New Zealand and Australian-based airlines will rise by 79%, according to the company, while aircraft operated by airlines based in the Asia Pacific region would jump 116%.
"The Asia Pacific (including China and India) market will be a big contributor to growth and will overtake the US over the next 20 years," Airbus vice president of marketing Colin Stuart said.
Airbus also predicts that 60% of the world fleet of very large passenger aircraft - such as its 555-seater A380 aircraft, which is scheduled to go into service with Singapore Airlines from the second quarter of 2006 - will be operated by airlines of the Asia Pacific region.
After the slump in the aviation market following the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, Airbus believes that airline industry growth was put back 1.5 years.
However, it predicts that revenue per passenger kilometre (RPK) will rise by about 5% a year to hit 8,473.1 billion by 2022, nearly tripling today's figures.
"Traffic has returned to the levels of the year 2000 and we're expecting to see a pick-up in global traffic through this year and onwards beyond 2004," said Stuart.
And this translates into growth in the aircraft market.
"We are seeing the requirement for just under 16,000 new passenger aircraft on a global basis by 2022, today we have about 11,000 aircraft in service of 100 seats and greater," said Stuart.
He added this equated to about 400 jets a year for Boeing and Airbus, a duopoly Stuart believes will continue for the next 40 or 50 years.
Airbus believes that of the new planes, which will create a $1.8 trillion industry, 40% will be small whereas 21% will fall into the "large" category which includes its A380 - the introduction of which has seen order numbers for the Boeing 747 slip dramatically.
Airbus forecasts a 20-year demand for nearly 1,500 passenger and freighter craft in the category of the A380 family.
Stuart outlined how he expected growth to be driven over the next 20 years by an almost 200% increase in passenger numbers, seats per aircraft would rise 33%, daily departures would increase by 66%, RPKs would lift 165% and load factors would increase by 1.5 percentage points.
The figures were without the impact of low-cost carriers being properly modelled in and Stuart said that taking this into account, the growth could be more significant.
"We haven't in the Asia Pacfic market got the low-cost airlines properly modelled, so this could change," said Stuart.
May 27, 2004
Aircraft manufacturer Airbus believes the Asia Pacific will overtake the United States as the major air traffic region worldwide over the next 20 years.
In the next 20 years, the number of aircraft operated by New Zealand and Australian-based airlines will rise by 79%, according to the company, while aircraft operated by airlines based in the Asia Pacific region would jump 116%.
"The Asia Pacific (including China and India) market will be a big contributor to growth and will overtake the US over the next 20 years," Airbus vice president of marketing Colin Stuart said.
Airbus also predicts that 60% of the world fleet of very large passenger aircraft - such as its 555-seater A380 aircraft, which is scheduled to go into service with Singapore Airlines from the second quarter of 2006 - will be operated by airlines of the Asia Pacific region.
After the slump in the aviation market following the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, Airbus believes that airline industry growth was put back 1.5 years.
However, it predicts that revenue per passenger kilometre (RPK) will rise by about 5% a year to hit 8,473.1 billion by 2022, nearly tripling today's figures.
"Traffic has returned to the levels of the year 2000 and we're expecting to see a pick-up in global traffic through this year and onwards beyond 2004," said Stuart.
And this translates into growth in the aircraft market.
"We are seeing the requirement for just under 16,000 new passenger aircraft on a global basis by 2022, today we have about 11,000 aircraft in service of 100 seats and greater," said Stuart.
He added this equated to about 400 jets a year for Boeing and Airbus, a duopoly Stuart believes will continue for the next 40 or 50 years.
Airbus believes that of the new planes, which will create a $1.8 trillion industry, 40% will be small whereas 21% will fall into the "large" category which includes its A380 - the introduction of which has seen order numbers for the Boeing 747 slip dramatically.
Airbus forecasts a 20-year demand for nearly 1,500 passenger and freighter craft in the category of the A380 family.
Stuart outlined how he expected growth to be driven over the next 20 years by an almost 200% increase in passenger numbers, seats per aircraft would rise 33%, daily departures would increase by 66%, RPKs would lift 165% and load factors would increase by 1.5 percentage points.
The figures were without the impact of low-cost carriers being properly modelled in and Stuart said that taking this into account, the growth could be more significant.
"We haven't in the Asia Pacfic market got the low-cost airlines properly modelled, so this could change," said Stuart.