Why are there no flights from Manchester to the US West Coast?

[Flightmapping]

Whilst it is good to see American Airlines announcing a new route from Manchester to Miami this week, supplementing the Boston route they started this month, how long will it be before we will see some direct flights between Manchester and West Coast USA? What is putting other airlines off? Is it the distance (would it be too far to operate a Boeing 767 profitably), or is it because though there are fewer onward connection opportunities?

If any routes are started, what are the most likely contenders? If AA find that their Boston and Miami routes are doing well, would they consider doing Manchester to Los Angeles? Or would Virgin ever consider a weekly service from Manchester to Las Vegas?

[mytdc10]

MYT do a weekly Las Vegas from Manchester. . .

[ETOPS]

BA used to operate MAN-LAX using 767 equipement in 2 class config but the service was terminated when they added another rotation to the LHR - LAX......................

[Flightmapping]

mytdc10, sorry I should have added "scheduled".

[xyz_pilot]

The normal problem with long haul from UK provincial airports is getting a good Premium class load. It’s a particular problem if the flight in effect point to point. The main US hubs for transfers are in the middle third of the country. The closest to a west coat hub is UA in SFO. It will be a few year before UA have the money available to risk on developing a new long haul route. That is if they last the year, remember that last year they had to sell off LHR slots as they either could not use them or needed fast cash flow, or both.

[Sir George Cayley]

Though that said AA state that MAN-ORD is one of their most profitable routes across the pond with the C class always well booked.

DL, CO and US Air all fly with healthy loads (9/11 + excepted) and when one looks at the ticketing there's plenty of onward connections from their respective hubs.

Plenty of northerners book NW to places like Twin Cities and are surprised to be heading east to AMS on a FK100 first.

The question I always ask at this point is - How many pax, who could fly from a northern regional airport, actually travel to the south-east to commence their transatlantic sector.? Either because of cost or because the person organising the itinerary makes more commission or is ignorant of the opportunities.

Until the Govt address the overall impact on the country of aviation including road / rail positioning to travel the recent white paper and its conclusions are marred. But workers deriving employment in the south east, airlines committed to London and politicians with a vested interest will never speak out against this, as it would diminish their mutual self interest to the rest of the countries disadvantage.

There I feel better now

Sir George Cayley

[Flightmapping]

"How many pax, who could fly from a northern regional airport, actually travel to the south-east to commence their transatlantic sector?"

I know this is a big issue in the Midlands too, where 50% of all passengers depart from non-Midlands airports.

I don't know the figures for Northern English airports, but I would guess that 60-70% of pax on MAN to LHR & LGW shuttles are non o&d, and there are about 25 of those each day.

BHX has a much narrower choice of long haul compared to MAN, with Co's EWR & EK's DXB being the main too, both offering wide transits.

Am I right in thinking that AA did both ORD and MIA from BHX pre- 9/11, but one of the problems for ORD was the length of BHX's runway? BHX suffers from being within a "tolerable" drive of LHR, whereas I would guess the majority from MAN would take the feeder flights. But I'm sure many more regional routes could be supported with the right marketing.

[xyz_pilot]

What other have contributed has confirmed the problems of direct services to the West Coast. You need an economic load of point to point pax.

I think one of the reasons UK pax travel to LHR is the frequency of the service. Lots of the services to the US from LHR offer 2 or 3 or to NY lots of departures a day. That helps the transfer pax and gives the point to point pax flexibility.

Unless an airport can support a daily service I will struggle to attract business pax (who pay on average higher fairs). Even daily serves may struggle against a 3 per day from LHR. Do you want to have to build your day around the 11am flight? Or would you take the 1 hour connecting flight and the choice of a 9am 11am and 5pm departure?

Long haul from the regional airports is a very hard business; flights only work to Hubs, Very Big destinations or when there is a very big leisure market.

[Flightmapping]

xyz_pilot,

Would Los Angeles fit your profile of "very big market, and substantial leisure demand". Or is there already too much choice from LHR - with Air NZ +BA, VS & UA?

How do the economics of transfers through expensive hub airports (surely double the handling fee for transit pax?) compare with lower charges but smaller aircraft at regional airports?

For example, when I went BHX to EWR earlier this year, there was little below £270 to go direct with CO, whereas LHR direct prices were starting at around £180. Now we're in peak season, I've sometimes seen prices from BHX lower than prices from LHR. I would imagine a 757 would guzzle more fuel per pax than a 747-400, but I'm no expert on this.

[Sir George Cayley]

Consider the business suit type with wife and 2 teenage kids living in say Congleton. He has a company expensed BMW and hotel loyalty cards.

They want to holiday in the states though not Disney.

MAN - ATL or MAN - EWR etc when compared to LHR and LGW are considerably more expensive per ticket. eg Full economy CO to EWR is nearly £1000 each and best price recently was £275

CO - LGW is £225 hence it will cost £100 extra for tickets out of MAN.

As petrol is no cost and he can get discount on the hotel (and park his car there for 2 weeks) what option do you think he'll take?

I guess BAA (and AMS/CDG) would take quite a hit if true open skies did eventually dawn. And think about the reduction in north/south traffic and the pollution benefit that might bring too.

But will it ever come to pass? Will it f...........

Sir George Cayley

[chiglet]

I have "heard" from "various" pax ex MAN/EGCC -USA via a "certain" Big Airline, That if they use the "Shuttle" to London....They will get a [very] cheap[er] fare.......
Is this "fair"???
watp, iktch

[xyz_pilot]

Sir G

I am not sure open skys would directly effect things. I THINK that to day there are no restrictions from UK regional airports (for UK or US airlines). The restiction is only at LHR, BA/VS/UA/AA only.

I think this is true but dont take it as gospel.


chiglet

This is quite normal. The fair via is dependent to some degree on the direct fair.

MAN-LRH-JFK depends on MAN-JFK

FRA-LHR-JNB depends on FRA-JNB

[EGGPOPS]

Strong whispers that next year VS will operate man-vegas and man barbados to top up the orlando route