How long until US AIR liquidates?

[Green Manalishi]

Me thinks by January.

[Ignition Override]

Green: What is your motivation in predicting a possible end to thousands of careers?

A morbid curiosity or the chance to profit (as a secured creditor or PBGC analyst etc?) from others' possibly horrific misfortunes?

JetBlue and Southwest must be salivating and counting their unhatched chickens over the possibilites.:yuk:

[Tandemrotor]

Hey Ignition Override

Don't sweat!

American carriers don't have to make money to survive. They just rely on the Government slush fund to subsidise fares, and hide behind 'Chapter 11' protections to drive non US (non subsidised!) airlines out of business!

US airways out of business by January - Dream on!!

[rotornut]

The cabin staff, in my experience with this airline, rank with the worst anywhere. So the sooner they go out of business the better - they can pursue new careers as prison guards or soldiers in the U.S. military in Iraq - where I'm sure they would be more caring and humane.

[bjghi3]

I doubt very, very seriously if that will happen before the US election. It would cost too many jobs especially in swing states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina. I believe that if that happens before the elecdtion Bush will most definetly lose. I think that somehow, some way there will be a band aid solution with Elmers glue and scotch tape a band aid solution together t a survival until after the election.
After the election, it may well be that the foreign ownership laws of US carriers is raised to 49%. That may give Branson an opening to start his airline in the US. Thats just my 2 censt worth.

[West Coast]

"American carriers don't have to make money to survive. They just rely on the Government slush fund to subsidise fares, and hide behind 'Chapter 11' protections to drive non US (non subsidised!) airlines out of business!"

Ahh, but for a sense of history...European history.

[Ignition Override]

Those are all plausible points. There are always too many US aircraft seats chasing too few people here, partly thanks to Senator Kennedy (and the 'distingui$hed' Prof Alfred "in Lorenzo's pocket" Kahn; he ' allegedly' was offered many shares of Lorenzo's NY Air stock while deregulation was being legislated under his consultation...nice conflict of interest "Prof" Kahn....), former Pres. Carter etc. But I can't imagine being ready to gloat and feel smug about any airline's failure.

Could it happen one day to your company, career, and most of your retirement, if you work for an airline? Once a US (Chap 11)bankruptcy judge takes over, most if not almost all of your retirement, except for a smaller fraction which you MIGHT have total control over, is given to either secured or unsecured creditors. Fortunately fellow Ppruners, this can only happen in the US.

In the US there is no unemployment insurance-and I wish we had some, depending on the increased taxes required. I watched a recent tv show about the end of Sabena-quite sad. The A-340 FO, father of a few children, commited suicide. Anyway, how much of one's salary in Western Europe does one receive (over there) if a company goes under?:ugh:

[Panama Jack]

I find some of you people's comments to be extremely distasteful. I compare it to relatives speculating "when is the old guy going to FINALLY croak so that we can collect on the inheritence." :yuk:

Personally, I don't think US Airways' future is bright, and most of their employees I think know it too. It's not a great feeling being on a losing team, however, it not many people have a great deal of choice ultimately in where they will spend their career.

Excellent observation, B.T.W., West Coast.

[Shore Guy]

With their restructured loan and current cash position, barring any 911 type events, US Air will be around well into 2005.

However, in a true free market society, US Air will (1) be out of business by mid/late 2005, or (2) remain in business as nothing more than a glorified RJ airline.

There is plenty of blame to spread. I have many friends there, but they are doomed. Bad management, bad labor, and essentially no joint action for recovery between the two. You cannot sell seats in competition with discount carriers with costs of 11 cents + seat/ mile for long before the math catches up. Well, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to predict the outcome…..

The legacy carriers have much to worry about. Sadly, I think US Air will follow in the footsteps of Eastern. There is little hope of a purchase (ala AMR of TWA) of this unwieldy and high cost carrier.

The gap will be filled rapidly….some temporary discontent at hub cities of PHL, CLT, PIT, but the world will continue to rotate on it’s axis.


:sad: :sad: :sad:

[SNNEI]

West coast,

Even though I'm a proud European, I have to agree with you there. We are in no position to talk about subsidies when our own flag carriers milked our governments (i.e tax payers) for years and still ripped us off!

At least that era is over us now (except for one or two perennial offenders :)

[spudskier]

Look, I know as well as the next guy that US Air has a good chance of biting the dust, but this would be a horrible thing. As a pilot graduating college later this year and hopefully having enough hours to look at regionals next spring, US Air folding would be a disaster for the hundreds of pilots like me.

US Air's destruction would lead to a flood of over qualified pilots looking for any flying job they can get their hands on... someone like me with maybe 1200TT and 100ish multi would be insignificant.

[West Coast]

Spud
I have to agree with you. At least consider looking in to a career in ATC. Keeps you in aviation and the pay is much better out of the chute than what a budding pilot will ever make. The next few will be telling for the FAA. They hired a bunch at the same time after the strikers were canned, and soon they will be eligable to retire in mass.

[Jobear]

"American carriers don't have to make money to survive. They just rely on the Government slush fund to subsidise fares, and hide behind 'Chapter 11' protections to drive non US (non subsidised!) airlines out of business!"

Unlike some EU aircraft manufacturers.

Look at it this way the Governments in all respective countries have one job to keep there collective butts in office and they will do and have done some outrageous things to try and keep people working. Businesses might support certain elected officials but people vote them into and out of office, so the governments want to keep the people working. Do you think Cherac would have been re-elected had Airbus gone under after he was in office? No, to many jobs lost. So the protectionism continues while politicians spout on about world wide free market economies.

But heck I'm probably wrong...

Jobear

[Green Manalishi]

Ahhhh,

The water here is fine. As is the wine.

Enjoy, but in moderation.

[OFBSLF]

Look, I know as well as the next guy that US Air has a good chance of biting the dust, but this would be a horrible thing.I don't think anyone is disputing that. But I can't see how US Air can survive. The market has changed dramatically and they have not.

[NTM]

Good Luck to all the employees at USAIR !!
You are a great airline. Hope you guys pull it off.
Flew some Usair Express stuff out of the West Coast while at the regionals. That travel card is a great thing.

I wish you well...

SNNEI thank you for correcting Tandemrotor.
AF, IB, AZ and others. Hummmm :} :}

Later..:ok:

[weasil]

Green Mashalini,

I would be interested to hear the reasoning behind your statement. Or was it just flame bait? I am not a businessman by any means and as a pilot who works for US Airways I am just hoping and praying they don't shut down.

You obviously have a very strong opinion about this... come on... share your thoughts.

Weasil.

[Ignition Override]

Weasil: Don't forget-many, if not a large fraction of people who take part in a Pprune forum, are not experienced pilots and have never worked for an airline.

As a well-known excellent article from a pilot stated (to counter complaints by many ignorant wannabes about major airline salaries), the only instrument time logged by many of them is with a computer keyboard at a "dotcom" or a tv remote control.:D

Hang in there at USAirways.:ok:

[FWA NATCA]

I just read in my local paper that US Air was cutting all flights out of our airport by October, and reducing flights into PIT by over 50%, in essence eliminating Pittsburgh as a US Air Hub.

I agree that if US Air can't recover and become profitable that it will be a sad loss for the industry, and employees. The increase cost in fuel is hurting everyone.

Mike

[411A]

It would appear that most of the US Air pilots have decided that the company is in dire straights and will accept any proposal from the company to save their collective jobs.
And well they should.
The mechanics and the hosties, on the other hand, still seem to be non-believers, in lala land.
All concerned had better get a grip in short order, or the fat lady will sing rather soon.

Southwest is hoping for a quick kill.

[Like This - Do That]

PPRuNers,

Ignition Override mentioned the threat to employees' pensions in Chapter 11 (and presumably in companies that are liquidated?).

Do I understand it, then, that your company's 401K contributions are considered part of its assets? I can't believe employee contributions could be fair game to liquidators or corporate raiders..... but the contributions made by the company? Aren't these funds off limits?

How does that leave a 65+ year old ex employee in the case of a company going belly up?

Good luck to all you USAir folks.

[greyflag]

Unfortunately, the US Airways pilots' 401k has always been non matching; ie: no company contributions. When the defined benefit plan terminated with the emergence from bankruptcy it was replaced with a defined contribution plan. The tax qualified portion goes with the pilot if the company liquidates, but quite a few of the pilots' accounts contain a large non tax qualified "notional" portion which is nothing more than entry on a ledger. If the company goes under this portion is gone. Worse yet, the latest request from the company allegedly wants to replace the defined contribution plan with a 401k with a 10% matching company contribution. Not good.. If an agreement with management is negotiated it will be subject to ratification by the pilot group here. BTW, our furlough list extends into 1988. Strange days indeed....(John Lennon - circa 1980)

[Diesel8]

The big winners, if you can call them that, if U were to cease to be, is neither SWA or jetblue. Neither of them has capacity to spare, airplanes in the desert or furloughed pilots.

The winner would be those airlines, that can afford, or borrow their way to, aquiring U assets and have excess capacity to service their system.

[TWApilot]

As a person who has flown for a competitor of USAir most of my career, I can say that I really, really hope USAir makes it. I hate to see my fellow aviation employees going through a liquidation. And as to the hope of a purchase like the AA purchase of TWA - that would be a fate worse than death itself. I wouldn't wish that on my worst enemies.

I sure hope the good people at USAir can hang in there. And shame on those sick people who would speculate on another person's loss of career/livelyhood.

[alexmcfire]

Hmm, I think cargo is more profitable than passenger traffic and the future,
how much of US Air traffic are cargo?