The "Real" Statistics

[Baldricks Mum]

From November 2003 to and including March 2004 there were 129 ESIR’s (Electronic Safety Incident Report) involving Breakdown of Co-Ordination and 35 Breakdown in Separation ESIR’s. Now if you compare that to the 19 TCAS RA’s, for the same period, haven’t we been barking up the wrong tree?

What is really frightening is that there was 458 VCA’s (Violation of Controlled Airspace), 308 Failure to comply with ATC instructions, and 48Runway incursions.

Maybe we should be asking questions about the Co-Ord & Separation breakdowns before we go charging off after RA’s. Actually VCA’s and Failure to comply may be more worth our time and effort as Pilots and Air Traffic Controllers.

Nervous Mother of Baldrick

[DirtyPierre]

Ahhhh BM,

You haven't studied "Inferential Statistics" have you.

Quoting stats like this means nothing.

To "infer" anything from the stats they must be analysed in a meaningful way. Just read the threads involving ****su-Tonka's jovial play on stats.

How do your quoted stats differ from previous periods? Are they skewed because of differing circumstances during the different periods? What are the variables to influence the stats yo have quoted?

Is 129 BOCs high, low or average for similar previous periods?
Is 19 RAs high, low or the same as previous periods?
How many of the BOS attributable to OZ ATC. Don't forget Oz ATC does coordination with NZ, PNG, Indonesia, Fiji, Noumea, and Sth Africa.


Do you see what I mean?

Maybe you should think a bit more closely about things before you blast away on the keyboard. Hmmmmm?

[Baldricks Mum]

I'm more interested in the VCA's and Failure to comply than pointing the finger at any controller. RA's have been in the press and hammered to death in this forum, when a greater threat to aviation could be VCA's. I know that the failure to comply ESIR's include busting altitude requirements in STAR's and SID's.

Oh, and please don't go looking down your nose at me, quoting some "inferential statistics". OK, so I'm not as smart as you.

BM

[spinout]

BM, I think you should stay in the kitchen and cook for you and stop taking hand outs from the bickie baker….

:confused:

[Baldricks Mum]

You'd be surprised what you will accept when you are on a pension.

You're not jealous that I get my jelly for free are you????

BM

[SM4 Pirate]

What is really frightening is that there was 458 VCA’s

Was it just me or was Mike Smith purporting that the NAS2b changes were going to solve this (press November 2003), because of the new simple airspace system(structure).

Is the number higher or lower than the preceding period and what if any is the difference in activity?

It should be way lower as the reduction in enroute C would have eliminated many in my view; not to mention the 'VCA's over D class towers that effectively don't happen now... But clearly the problem is not solved...

[AirNoServicesAustralia]

Hey SM4 Pirate, the analogy I would use for NAS, would be the introduction of the Cane Toad. It was bought in to solve a problem and only succeeded in creating a whole new bunch of probs. Thats what I think NAS has done, it hasn't delivered on any of the promises that its introduction was based on, and in fact caused a whole new group of concerns and dangers.

[DirtyPierre]

BM,

Just because I have taken you to task about your careless use of stats, do not think I am trying to demean or belittle you. If that was the impression.....sorry. I may indeed not be smarter than you, but I may be more careful about what I infer from raw data.

ANSA, the cane toad analogy is very apt. Now how do we eradicate them?

[tobzalp]

What your stats say to me is that Pilots made 5 times the Errors as Controllers in the same Period.

I would like to see these stats further broken down into Professional and Enthusiastic Amatuer categories so we can see which type of pilot is more to blame.

Additionally what is your point? Your thread is titled as though you have uncovered something and these are the "Real" Stats that were hidden from us. The incidents that you have quoted have no relationship to one another. What is it you wanted us to draw from them? Maybe you thread title could just be "Some Stuff Happened and here are the Numbers".

****su Tonka can you put these figures into a graph and add the
relationship to the demise of GA for us please?

Best Thread Ever.

[Capt Claret]

ANSA

and just like the cane toad it not only created other problems but didn't solve the problem it was introduced to solve.

In the case of the cane toad, they couldn't eat the beatles because they lived and fed on the tops of the cane, whilst the poor old toad languished on the ground.

And in the case of NAS ............

umm, what was the problem that had to be fixed again? :{

[AirNoServicesAustralia]

Although I must admit that if in the washup, the introduction of NAS has eradicated Dick Smith from the Australian Aviation scene once and for all, it may have all been worth it. If that doesn't work, maybe we can set a few cane toads onto him.

[Clothears]

Eradicate Dick? Don't bet on it.

Remember the old joke about FSOs? The new variation....

After the nuclear holocaust there will only be two species that survive: cockroaches, and Dick Smith.

[AirNoServicesAustralia]

Even then Dick Smith would still be the 2nd best choice to head up post holocaust Airspace Reform.

[farqueue]

Don't count on the bicky botherer vanishing just yet. There was just
an item on the news about how wonderfull the new air space system is acording to the great lord anderson.

[SM4 Pirate]

Andersons Press Release (http://www.ministers.dotars.gov.au/ja/releases/2004/April/a48_2004.htm)

NATIONAL AIRSPACE SYSTEM REFORMS CONTINUE
The Government is satisfied with progress and will continue with the implementation of the National Airspace System (NAS) reform programme, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Transport and Regional Services, John Anderson, said today.

"The recent discussion paper from the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) on NAS safety occurrences has shown the number of incidents (as measured through TCAS resolution advisory alerts) has not increased since the introduction of stage 2b of the NAS which began in November last year," Mr Anderson said.

"Normally, when new systems are introduced an increased in incidents occurs. That this has not occurred in the case of the NAS is a credit to the work of the implementation team, air traffic controllers and pilots.

"The Government expects agencies and the aviation industry to learn from operational experience and to enhance the NAS model where required. This is now happening under the direction of Airservices Australia. Importantly, the aviation industry is playing a key role in moving the airspace reform programme forward. I am most appreciative of the assistance being provided by the major airlines and the general aviation sector in preparing for the next round of improvements to Australia's airspace architecture.

"Airservices Australia, the regulatory authority responsible for making changes to airspace, will subject the next steps to rigorous analysis and safety checks. To ensure overall coordination of the process, I have reconstituted the Airspace Reform Group to include the CEO of Airservices, Bernie Smith; the CEO of CASA, Bruce Byron; the Head of the Air Force, Air Vice-Marshall Angus Houston; Dick Smith; and the Secretary of my Department, Ken Matthews.

"The Government recognises that Australia's air traffic controllers, pilots and aviation safety investigators are among the best in the world and are dedicated to ensuring that Australia's skies are among the safest in the world. It is unfortunate that some individuals have chosen to question the integrity of these vital elements of our aviation industry.

"In the same context it is unfortunate that Civil Air (the union representing air traffic controllers) persists with an inaccurate industrial and political campaign.

"The Government remains committed to its airspace reform programme. The aviation agencies will continue to work with the industry toward the goal of establishing a safe, world-class airspace system suited to the 21st Century rather than the 1950s. I call on all parties to work with the Government's aviation agencies and the industry in a constructive manner," Mr Anderson said.

My bolding...

[Baldricks Mum]

DP,

Pilot's are responsible for an enormous amount of VCA's and Failure to comply ESIR's, end of story. What I'm trying to put across is maybe there is a little more to the problem surrounding airspace than just the architecture of the NAS. 3 times a day pilot's are plunging into CTA without clearances which surely should be of concern to all airspace users and the operators of the airspace.

BM

[tobzalp]

If that is your point then why include the other stats?

[Baldricks Mum]

Why would I only include some stats? Screams of hiding something. Both sides have been accused of hiding so a little balance surely can't be wrong can it?

BM

[DirtyPierre]

BM,

Stop trying to justify using the raw data without any meaningful analysis.

If you want to talk about VCA, well and good. Why include the other stats?

So, go away, study the VCAs, come back and tell us;
- the proportion of VFR to IFR VCAs,
- VCAs of restricted airspace as opposed to VCA of E, D, C,and A,
- and the likely trends.

Then compare the period studied to other periods in the past 5 years.

Talk to you later.

[tobzalp]

Lets talk of Galley Fires and Birdstrikes!

[dickluvva]

'round my neck of the woods the biggest contributors to VCAs are weekend warriors in R532A. You'd think the bu@@ers could see the big red line on the ground, it's pretty clear on the maps. They must be on CTAF because you can shout down the mike until you're hoarse in the throat and they still don't turn.

This little gem of airspace is just west of Cessnock and south of Singleton. Live mortar and small munitions firing any time of day or night and still on a good weekend I'll lodge 2 or 3 VCAs just for this one.

I'm now on first name basis with the Range Safety Officer (and his Missus) and am usually greeted with "...you're bloody jokin' mate, they're firing mortars today".

Funnily enough I thought that this problem would be self-rectifiying over time if only due to Darwinian selection but the grunts must be trained by the pommy cricket team in targetting skills. One of these days, purely by accident, someone's going to get shot up or down.