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lame
12th Apr 2004, 22:34
Close calls point to air safety time bomb

Chris Jones, national political reporter
13apr04


MORE than 1000 potentially serious incidents involving commercial aircraft have been reported to Australia's air safety investigators in the past four years.

In many cases passengers had no idea anything was wrong.

The alarming frequency of such incidents is revealed in Australian Transport Safety Bureau reports.

The federal government body determines the causes of incidents and recommends ways to prevent them happening again.

According to ATSB reports, the vast majority of the incidents were considered to pose no immediate danger to passengers but if left unchecked had the potential to become much more serious problems.

Investigators considered 23 to be "serious incidents" – where the problem had the potential to lead to an accident if it happened again.

Three were considered so serious they received the second-highest rating, which is reserved for incidents where there was a serious risk of multiple fatalities in unluckier circumstances.

However, 18 of the incidents were classed as "accidents", which together resulted in more than 20 people being injured and eight killed.

Last year alone there were three serious incidents – a near-miss over Tasmania, a large airliner running off the runway on landing in Darwin, and one instance where both pilots on a Boeing 737 were overcome by smoke caused by an electrical fault in the cabin.

Two other aircraft last year veered off the runway after landing at Australian airports.

One aircraft aborted a landing after air traffic controllers realised it was off target upon its final approach for landing at Mackay, in north Queensland.

Another had descended for landing through low clouds over Melbourne when its alarmed pilot discovered he was 150m higher than the instruments had indicated, forcing him to urgently pull out of the landing.

Other incidents included an Airbus taking off from Sydney while a vehicle was on the runway, and air crew having to manually lower the landing gear after the hydraulics failed.

But with hundreds of thousands of flights in Australia each year figures show flying in commercial aircraft is much safer than in general aviation.

According to the ATSB, there were 134 accidents in general aviation last year, leaving 34 people dead.

The most dangerous flights were those for private or business use (50 accidents and eight deaths), ahead of charter flights (25 accidents, eight deaths), training flights (19 accidents, seven deaths), and crop-dusting (17 accidents).

Since 1994, the ATSB says there had been almost 2000 accidents and 372 fatalities in general aviation.

Over the same period there were only 41 accidents involving commercial airliners – 28 of which were regional flights on smaller aircraft.

These accidents resulted in 10 deaths – eight of them when a Whyalla Airlines Piper Cherokee plunged into South Australia's Spencer Gulf in May 2000.

Separate ATSB figures reveal there were 459 birdstrikes reported last year at Australia's 10 major airports – the worst result in four years.

Time Bomb Ted
13th Apr 2004, 06:16
Bloody media,

What about the nearly 8000 people who die from mis-treatment from doctors. Or what about the 68 people who died in custody in 2002. or the 500 odd people who were hospitalised with Lawnmower injuries in South Australia alone. Melanoma is Australia's second biggest killer. Have a look at the ABS website. www.abs.gov.au

More people are hostpitalised over sex toy injuries than aircraft accidents. Print that fella's.

Sheesh you think they would have something better to report than saying the air is a time bomb. That is my title.

Time Bomb Ted

lame
13th Apr 2004, 06:55
It is a slow news day at the Courier-Mail........ ;) :D

OverRun
13th Apr 2004, 09:08
3 people die each year testing if a 9v battery works on their tongue

142 people were injured in 1999 by not removing all pins from new shirts

58 people are injured each year by using a sharp knife instead of screwdrivers.

31 people have died since 1996 by watering their Christmas tree while the fairy lights were plugged in

19 people have died in the last three years believing that Christmas decorations were chocolate

Hospitals report 7 broken arms this year after cracker pulling accidents

101 people since 1998 have had to have broken parts of plastic toys pulled out of the soles of their feet

18 people had serious burns in 2001 trying on a new jumper with a lit cigarette in their mouth

A massive 543 people were admitted to hospital emergency in the last two years after opening bottles of beer with their teeth

5 people last year were injured last year in accidents involving out of control Scalectrix car

lame
13th Apr 2004, 10:30
Yes, but they are boring to a journo. ;)

"Air Safety Time Bomb" is much more of a story.......... :D

ferris
13th Apr 2004, 12:20
How many of the above-mentioned have PPL's and are allowed to fly amongst jets without a clearance?

kookabat
13th Apr 2004, 13:19
Overrun: I guess that makes it official... Christmas is more dangerous than flying.:ooh:

OverRun
14th Apr 2004, 12:04
Is aviation more dangerous than Christmas?

My earlier statistics were very tongue in cheek, to stir along the 'slow news day'. But kookabat has made me think – is Christmas really more dangerous than flying?

I looked at two transport safety measures – the common road safety measure of yearly fatalities per 100 000 head of population (Annual Societal Risk), and the common air safety measure of fatalities per 100 000 hours of operation (Accident Rate Societal Risk).

My earlier statistics came from the USA for 1996-2001. The population in 2001 was 281 million. The statistics for the two Christmas events was "31 people have died since 1996 by watering their Christmas tree while the fairy lights were plugged in" and "19 people have died in the last three years believing that Christmas decorations were chocolate", which is about 15 per year.

On the basis of yearly fatalities per 100 000 head of population, that is 0.005 per 100 000 head of population. Now admittedly this is from esoteric aspects of Christmas and it doesn't include the more common causes of death directly attributable to Christmas such as over-indulgence, asphyxiation being stuck in a chimney, or being run down by a reindeer. So if we scale up the esoteric fatality rate by an order of magnitude to account for all causes of death directly attributable to Christmas, that gives a fatality rate of 0.05 per 100 000 head of population per year due to Christmas.

In Australia, we seem to tolerate a national annual death toll of around 1770 road deaths (ATSB, 2002). This is a fatality rate on the roads of 9.34 per 100,000 of population per year. I hesitate to even suggest the tolerable level for aviation death toll because it is so politicised right now, but there genuinely is a "socio-political basis for using 1 in 10,000 as a starting point for societal risk criterion". That gives a fatality rate of 10 per 100,000 head of population for roads or aviation. So aviation is quite a lot more dangerous than Christmas using this metric.

Let's look now at Accident Rate Societal Risk, expressed as a risk rate per unit of activity. An example is ‘one collision per 1,000,000 flight hours’ (or flights, or miles travelled). The figure is commonly set as a Target Level of Safety (TLS). Assuming that Christmas occupies 12 days, and there are 16 hours per day when people are awake and have a potential exposure to watering the tree or eating decorations, that is 192 hours per year. The "Christmas in the home" participation rate was assumed to be 25% (the rest being people at work, non-believers, and Scrooge).

For a population of 281 million, that is 1.35E+10 Christmas hours per year, and with 15 fatalities per year, one fatality per 899,200,000 Christmas hours. Even scaling up the esoteric fatality rate by an order of magnitude to account for all causes of death directly attributable to Christmas, that still only gives a fatality rate per hour of Christmas of 1E-8. This is an order of magnitude less than the 'magic' Target Level of Safety of 1E-7 per flight hour. Once again, aviation is more dangerous than Christmas.

I hesitate to do the statistics on the people hospitalised for sex toys. After all, how do you get them? Ring up the hospital and say that you are a serious aviation person and you have some questions about sex toys . . . . . .

Fission
14th Apr 2004, 14:26
I love statistics 'cos they can say anything...; but about the sex toys......

ones with batteries where people have tried to run them from the mains supply ?

Or, closer to home, from the 24V aircraft supply when they thought it was 12V

:E

Shocking

Fizzzzzzzzz

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