Will a good hiring time ever return again?

[V- 5]

Iwas wondering if anyone has any comments on this? It used to be that there was a definate career structure within our industry, that sort of went as follows..

1)British Airways/ Midland
2)Monarchs etc
3)Regionals/ Turbo Freight
5)Flight Instructors

When the majors started hiring in larger numbers everything got sucked upward. Mr turbo prop moved to Monarch and Mr FI moved to turbo props. At the end of the day we all had a chance with a major and a nice life.


Now, the situation today.

1)British Airways/ Midland
2)Monarchs etc
3)Easy/ Ryanair
4)Regionals/ Turbo Freight
5)Flight Instructors


The employment situation today is far from simple. As Easy and Ryan grow BA are shrinking as is there working conditions as they strive to further compete. So we no longer have the majors driving employment. Also in the good old days BA/ Midland etc never had the same level of Cadet Sponsorship Schemes. Now, most of BAs requirement is met by cadets fresh out of Oxford.

The Monarchs etc have Cadet Sponsorship Schemes, they also have the CTC Scheme where many 200hr guys come straight out of Oxford/Cabair and into a jet. This means that all thre guys on the lower levels dont get a chance.

Then we have the new section, the middle fast becoming the top. Due to their aggressive ticketing Easy and Ryan are changing the industry, for pilots, not in a good way. Now working for Easy sounds great, but in reality, once the novelty of flying a jet (that you have paid them to fly) wears off, the conditions are hard. 6/2 rotas, no staff travel, 4 sector duties-not safe(in my opinion!)
:( So Easy and Ryan have added jobs to the market, but for every one they add the take one away from thre nicer end! Easy and Ryan are regarded as a stepping stone, but a stepping stone to what? Whats above them is shrinking and are, mostly, doing just fine!

I live on the Turbo Freight end of the ladder and have had some very challenging multi crew experience, i have about 1000hrs total now. The reason i have been ranting on is because i dont see a bright future. I love flying but i also love life and family which is why i would like to end up in a position where i can enjoy these. I have a feeling that Easy and Ryan are slowly becoming all we have to look forward to. Even though the market is improving i am getting no responses (Regional or Jet). Yet i keep on hearing of very low hour guys walking straight onto a jet.

Is the market improving, will it ever be very bouyant again?

Will the majors ever drive employment again?

[chris]

v5, can you check your pms, I have a question for you. thanks.

[Chuffer Chadley]

V5

One of the most lucid posts about the employment climate I have seen on PPRUNE in my 3-ish years of looking. Some excellent points.

I think that I would add that Ryan (and Easy to a lesser extent) are exploiting the current imbalance of pilots/jobs, and are hence able to make hay at our expense, whether directly or indirectly. It seems, and it's not easy to confirm, that some sort of balance is being gradually restored, which should result in better jobs/terms for us all.

I hope.

There's an awful lot of right-place-right-time going on as well.

Ciao
CC

[aces low]

An excellent post V5. As I perceive it, being an FI or mail freight driver is no longer the first step on the ladder but potentially a 'dead end' or at least a branch line that may never lead to a job that pays a decent wage.

Having spent £40k on modular training and lost about the same again in lost income while being a flying instructor I am beginning to think I may never be in a position to repay my debts and properly support my family. The standard response from 'glass half full' types is to stick at it and something will turn up.

Well if V5s post is accurate then even with a significant upturn I may never see the fruits of my hard won experience as the airlines move towards semi-sponsorship of individuals under 30. ....and with the proposed european co-pilots licence (40-60 hours piston and the rest on simulators to jet type rating) then I can see matters only getting worse for the 'self improver'.

I know there are guys out there who have done the self improver route in the past and are now senior playeers in the recruitment of pilots. However, in the past they had opportunities to build twin time and air taxi time (opportunities which are even rarer than airline jobs nowadays)...and they still ask for significant multi time before you can be considered for a RHS.

It seems like I am caught in the middle....too old and experienced for a EZY job and too inexperienced (not enough multi time) for a job with the likes of BMI, Southwest, etc. However...you have to ask the question...if I could tick all the boxes would I get job?

Its a lottery.

[scroggs]

Don't forget the likes of Virgin who are taking on people from Midland, which you put at the top of your career ladder and I have been told that there a few at easyJet who have applied to Virgin as well. Emirates continues to suck up those pilots at the middle or top stages of the career ladder

Virgin has interviewed (and holds CVs from) many at BMI, Monarch, Air2000/MyTravel, Excel, easyJet and Ryanair, and some from Emirates, Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines, and most European majors - and others that don't really fit in the chain V -5 described.

Emirates primarily appeals to experienced pilots with Airbus ratings and command time, as they are accepting direct-entry commands (at the expense of their first officer community). Many of Emirates' recruits will be from the USA's decimated aviation sector; there aren't many from the likes of Virgin that would go there now (though some did after 9/11).

As for 'will the good times return?'. Yes, they will - and it's happening now.

Scroggs

[Capt. Manuvar]

The good times 'may' return, but with this EU anti-ageism law coming through I'm a bit sceptical.
Capt. M

[Sick]

and will the good times to be a pilot ever return? I can't believe how far T & Cs have deteriorated in the industry in the last ten years. BALPA just look after BA and everyone else gets screwed.

And the fun bits of the job seem to be being systematically removed; partly due to anti-terrorism measures and partly due to lack of a united front on the part of the pilots.

I really wish I had done something else when I left university.

[scroggs]

The anti-agism law you refer to, which is due to take effect in 2006, has not yet had its effect on UK airlines assessed. It seems likely that it will prevent employers enforcing contracts that require pilots to retire below statutory retirement age (currently 65). However, such a stipulation may well need new individual contracts to be agreed, with proportionally reduced pension entitlements until that age has been reached. Many pilots (and it's BA that will be the chief player in this, with its 55 retirement age) may feel that their early-retirement lump sum and pension makes it too attractive to change for a contract to 65. My airline, among others, already employs pilots to 65 (in the rhs after 60), so I suspect that the new legislation will have no significant effect on us.

I doubt that the legislation will have the power to abolish statutory retirement age, which would force all workers to continue until they were no longer fit to do so. However, it may allow those who wish to continue working beyond 65 to do so subject to medical checks. Whether this will have any application to commercial flying (which is already exempt from much employment legislation) we have yet to see - I personally doubt that many pilots would go for it.

Note that the expansion of the airlines (and it is happening) needs new pilots whatever happens to those over 55.

Note also that this legislation has nothing to do with commands over 60, and so the current policy of pilots relinquishing their commands at 60 will continue until other legislation has been approved - and this would require France, Italy, Portugal and the USA to abandon their prohibition of commercial captains over 60. I doubt that such legislation is imminent!

Sick BALPA have looked after my airline's pilots extremely well - and we're not BA! What we are is totally united on what we want, and focussed on how to achieve it within a profitable airline. That is why my pay will increase by approximately 30% between 2002-2005 with no increase in flying hours.

Scroggs

[ravenx]

Talking of anti-ageism

How can airlines get away with blatantly refusing to recruit non type rated pilots over a certain age. Surely this is a form of discrimination (which I believe is illegal in the US)

[Flying Farmer]

Ravenx

I'll second that, don't wish to be branded a whinger here on Pprune but I do feel you have a valid point.
I realise times have been tough in the industry over the last couple of years, but after sending out countless CVs, last box of good quality paper bought 6 months ago was enough for 80, I have secured the sum total of 1 interview.
The feedback I get is that us oldies are likely to struggle through the type rating, why should we? Out of the 12 or so on my ATPL course, only 4 of us passed all 14 first time, all over 30. The reason, most had sold their grannies to finance the course and have families to support. So come on chief pilots and HR departments, give us a go, you never know we olduns just might surprise you.

[ravenx]

FF - check your PMS

[Snigs]

Hear hear FF, well said :sad:

[High Wing Drifter]

Spot on FF. If there is one thing that has suprised me (apart from CAA charges) about this training process is how easy I find learning compared to 15 years ago. Something to do with motivation prehaps?

[Luke SkyToddler]

Yeah well personally I have never yet met someone in this business who doesn't have some kind of conspiracy theory that they have been hard done by in the job stakes, because they are too young / too old / too short / too tall / not enough hours / too many hours / too foreign / too british / too male / too female ... whatever. Some just put their shoulder to the wheel and get on with it and others don't, I guess.

It's tough for everybody to get their first airline job whether they're young or old ... it took me 6 years, several thousand miles of driving, 3 round-the-world trips, hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of phone calls faxes and emails, two or three thousand posted c.v.'s (no idea to be honest but I'm working on the basis of 40 or 50 posted every few weeks for several years), 2 long term relationships, about 10000000 pints of beer, 378 back issues of Flight International, some seriously large internet bills, the list could go on for ever but I'm sure you all get the general idea.

The market will just about always be "buoyant" for people who are experienced, type rated and current on modern airline equipment, and it will never ever be easy for people looking for their first job.

I think the job market is as good as it's been for some time, everyone is hiring in small numbers with the one big exception of British Airways. People have forgotten about them on wannabe's almost, because it's been that long since they hired ... but I don't share v-5's pessimism that all the jobs created at the lo-co's are due to contraction in the full fare carriers. Just wait until Uncle Eddington opens the hiring floodgates and then we will have all the makings of a fully fledged hiring boom on our hands :ok:

[RowleyUK]

LST hits the nail on the head.........

Of all the times ive heard within the last 2 months "just wait and see" ............I very much doubt the pilots:Jobs ratio will EVER favour pilots but the recruitment situation is set to change....for the better.......and in the very near future!!.............This will be added with another good push in the right direction when,as MR Toddler stated, Uncle Rod opens the floodgates at BA!

Hold on tight boys and girls good times are coming!!

First hand info from a good source.....So dont beat me, please!:E


Rowley:ok:

[ravenx]

I do agree with what you're saying about most people having some axe to grind about why they haven't been able to secure that all important first job. However, with age it's a bit more definite.

So far we have

1. Flybe refusing to take anyone over 32
2. Britannia refusing to take anyone over 30
3. CTC refusing people over 35.

And these are just the ones I know about. No doubt the others will be making hay while the sun shines at the expense of the "less than perfect" applicant.

They're taking such a broad brush approach that you can't even get as far as the interview.

[Hansard]

I know someone who just got a regional turbo prop job at 38

Also know someone who was taken on by Flybe at 39 (albeit 2 years ago)

[Canadiankid]

My few cents,

The age issue is bo!&$!ks. All airlines hire based on there needs etc. and will take people at a resonable age if they fit the profile and age gap in the given carrier. Cathay has taken the odd SO over 40 and this comes from mates at CX that are SO's.

Things are starting to roll folks whether you want to believe it or not. My superior recruited in the last month and said he is having trouble finding people with unfrozen ATPL's which he needs due to a shortage of skippers. You do the math. All hired were instructors with a reasonable amount of time. Good job, good aircraft and good pay. Talk to people actually doing the recruiting and you will see what is starting to happen.

Now is the time to say no to self funded type ratings and sit back and watch the music start to play. Know of a guy who left our outfit to join one of the "Low Cost" carriers in the last little while. They said that he would have to pay for his rating and he told them to stick it for lack of a better term. They recruited him anyways............

Good luck

[V- 5]

I have just read an article in this weeks Flight international. The article is with regards the Regionals and how, if to survive, they need to develop into miniture low cost carriers. A quote from the article....

There is only so much cost reduction that can be achieved by synergies and economies of scale. The thorny issue of staff productivity will have to be tackled.....

Looks like bad news if your in a regional, your terms and conditions may be about to change as a direct result of the surge in the low cost sector.

Another quote from article on same subject, next page.......



predicts that, in the future, most of the intra-Europe short-haul market willl be dominated by "two or three MAJOR, low-cost, no frills operators.......

These words came from the highly regarded industry cosultant Professor Rigas Doganis.

This seems to go against what L.S.T says when he stated that B.A(and the likes) would not have to contract as a result of low sector growth. If the low costs are going to dominate and become the MAJOR in short-haul europe surely BA must contract as they currently hold a large share of this market.

[RowleyUK]

Thomas Cook require 30 pilots for their Manchester base!!!;)


I have reason to believe my source is reliable so dont beat me,please!!:ok:

[High Wing Drifter]

predicts that, in the future, most of the intra-Europe short-haul market willl be dominated by "two or three MAJOR, low-cost, no frills operators.......
Pah! Professors and experts. Just when have they ever been correct? The only reason industry listens to these people is because instrustry is confused as the rest of us. However, their confusion is rather more backed up by assorted data, facts and figures, whereas us laymen just say "I dunno." :rolleyes:

[V- 5]

Or High Wing Drifter, they could be using common sense. The market is already moving in this direction and continues to do so. Easy and Ryan are both continuing to grow fast. Are you saying that, for example, Easy's new Berlin route is not going to impact on the profitability of BAs route to Berlin? Of course it will. BA will have to cut their prices or cut out routes. To cut their prices they have to further emulate the low cost philosophy, but there is only so much BA can do to lower costs as it has a much higher set of overheads.

I dont like it but i see it happening, eventually long haul may be the the only place we will find our majors.

[High Wing Drifter]

Hey, I'm not in denial you know :) You are trying to predict the short-haul business for the next 10-20 years; there is no such thing as common sense.

From the outside people just see low-fares. Low fares means more punters. Most punters means market domination. I think some airlines have/are expanding too quickly. There are a host of internal factors that can slow growth and even retard development. These should not be discounted...IMHO

[V- 5]

Hope your right H.W.D

[scroggs]

Ravenx wrote: Talking of anti-ageism:

How can airlines get away with blatantly refusing to recruit non type rated pilots over a certain age. Surely this is a form of discrimination (which I believe is illegal in the US)

As far as I am aware, any employer can determine the professional qualifications it requires of its applicants, and is entitled to refuse to accept anyone who does not meet those qualifications. Whether you like it or not, there is a proven link between age and ability to learn - however tenuous - and many airlines are not prepared to take the financial risk of failures in training.

Another quote from article on same subject, next page.......

quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
predicts that, in the future, most of the intra-Europe short-haul market willl be dominated by "two or three MAJOR, low-cost, no frills operators.......
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

These words came from the highly regarded industry cosultant Professor Rigas Doganis.

Professor Doganis was the chief executive of Olympic Airlines from 1995-98. Whatever the qualities of Prof. Doganis (author of 'The Airline Business in the Twenty First Century'), Olympic notably failed to make a profit under his (or anyone else's) stewardship. What does this go to show? That no-one - no-one - has the font of all knowlege when it comes to the airline business, and that he could be as wrong as the next man.

The bottom line is the number of punters that wish to fly is increasing. Legislation and pricing is making it increasingly attractive to fly. Which airlines survive to take advantage of that demand is irrelevant; those people will fly, and more pilots are needed to fly them. If the market returns to its recent historical trend of 5% cumulative expansion (which can't continue for ever), many more pilots will be required, unless we start doing short haul lo-cost in A380s.

Which of you are in those cockpits will mostly depend on the attitude you display to those who might employ you, rather than your age, your exam pass rates, or how far up the CFI's ass you got your nose during your sooper-dooper, 'kin expensive integrated course.

Scroggs

[V- 5]

Scroggsy, Which airlines survive to take advantage of that demand is irrelevant

If BA is the one that survives we see our families some times. If Easy or Ryan do survive we dont.

[scroggs]

That rather depends on how many more of you offer to fly for a pittance and for crap terms with any employer, doesn't it? BA will tear down its great employee contracts if it thinks it can get pilots for less - and too many of you, it seems, would be willing to accept that. Remember that when you're working out where your pension will come from and why you're on your third divorce.

Scroggs

[Justbelowcap]

It is HIGHLY likely BA will begin recruiting type rated pilots in Summer04. It is likely this will be on all fleets with the exception of the 737 at LGW . So if you've got an A320, 777, 747 rating you'll be needed. We are desperately short of pilots on all fleets (except 737LGW).

Once the pension issue has been sorted out (internal politics) then Cranebank once again will be working flat out.

BA got badly caught out by recruiting guys as old as 29 into the old cadet scheme. The failure rate for these older cadets was marketedly higher than the younger ones. If you've not flown jets before it is a VERY steep learning curve for the first six months and, unfortunately, the fact is that the younger you are the higher your chance of success. However flying the aircraft is just a small part of being a pilot and many of the skills you need on the line can only come with a bit of life experience, so what the older applicant tends to lack in flying skill is made up by being a better people manager. Swings and roundabouts.

[scroggs]

Actually, Justbelowcap, I think BA have taken a drip-feed of rated guys over the last year or so, but of course couldn't increase the in-service numbers of pilots with certain numbers targets to maintain. It's no surprise that a few fleets are beginning to hurt; it just needs the bean counters to open the money taps a bit to allow new folk in. However, any cadetship scheme is still some way off, as far as I can tell.

Scroggs

[Justbelowcap]

We've not taken on any new guys for a long time. The cadet scheme is dead and buried never to return.

[Snigs]

Regarding the age issue, sadly, I believe my CV gets binned solely on the fact that I’m 38, regardless of my other attributes.

I’m just checking for a glint of sunshine peeping out of the back of my trousers, but if I do say so myself, I’m intelligent, quick at picking things up, sociable, actually quite a nice chap. I’m someone that most wouldn’t mind spending 8 hours in a cupboard with, (even my farts smell sweet!!). The thing is, how can I prove that to the people that matter if I can’t get an interview.

Before you all bite, I did know that I was entering the industry at a mature age (and knew the implications) before I started my professional training, but it is frustrating that I’m treated differently to someone like Scroggs (just using you as an example, and I know there are experience and other issues!) who at slightly older than 38 converted from the 747 classic to the A340. So, to make a narrow point here, doesn’t that take the same amount of “ability” to learn new stuff?

[scroggs]

Snigs Virgin already had a lot invested in me when I converted to the A340, and I was a known quantity. They took more risk when I joined them from the RAF at 42, but I already had the thick end of 8000 hours, mostly as a captain and training captain on C130s with an 'above average' assessment from that system. That makes it more than a little easier for them to decide whether to risk employing the likes of me! Whether they have regretted that decision since is quite another conversation....!

Justbelowcap, OK, I'll take your word for it! We did have one or two at Virgin get the tickle of a job at BA over the last couple of years, and I had heard of others, but I couldn't say what the final outcome of those were - now we know. As for the cadetship, it's not 'officially' dead for ever (as our own BA recruiting mole on the Pprune staff reports), but we're not expecting anything remotely resembling the old system to ever resurface.

Scroggs