TurbineDreamer
24th Feb 2004, 18:19
G'day
This is not a wind up, I am just trying to analyse the current situation of play in the industry. I know many will say you might as well get a crystal ball to predict the aviation industry and where it is going, but doesn't history teach us anything.
The industry works in cycles, ups and downs. I gather it is slowly building momentum again after the down turn of the last three years, but are we headed for more pain again. Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to be negative, just trying to analyse the state of play. God knows I want the industry to do well, we all want to be and stay part of it. I don't want it to boom on the basis of false hope and a false economy, which cannot maintain the capacity which is already out there and which is about to be increased.
I thought the industry is in a stable balance at present, but I fear another airline, even if it is a spin off from Qantas, is another airline and Australia has well and truly proved it can't manage three airlines. And where will the pain lie, that is the hard one to pick, but more pain is on the way, that we can be sure of.
Will it be in Virgin getting done over by Qantas \ Jetstar, will it be Jetstar if Virgin fight back stronger than expected. Will it be Qantas mainline guys, forced out over the next decade to be replaced by Jetstar crew.
What of the regionals, if Virgin continue to expand into smaller markets and start competing against turbo props on short regional routes what of that.
I really do want this industry to remain healthy and stable, but to do this it needs to find a balance. I think that balance is there now, I fear what might occur over the next few years. Much joy and elation, before unwanted grief again.
This is not a wind up, I am just trying to analyse the current situation of play in the industry. I know many will say you might as well get a crystal ball to predict the aviation industry and where it is going, but doesn't history teach us anything.
The industry works in cycles, ups and downs. I gather it is slowly building momentum again after the down turn of the last three years, but are we headed for more pain again. Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to be negative, just trying to analyse the state of play. God knows I want the industry to do well, we all want to be and stay part of it. I don't want it to boom on the basis of false hope and a false economy, which cannot maintain the capacity which is already out there and which is about to be increased.
I thought the industry is in a stable balance at present, but I fear another airline, even if it is a spin off from Qantas, is another airline and Australia has well and truly proved it can't manage three airlines. And where will the pain lie, that is the hard one to pick, but more pain is on the way, that we can be sure of.
Will it be in Virgin getting done over by Qantas \ Jetstar, will it be Jetstar if Virgin fight back stronger than expected. Will it be Qantas mainline guys, forced out over the next decade to be replaced by Jetstar crew.
What of the regionals, if Virgin continue to expand into smaller markets and start competing against turbo props on short regional routes what of that.
I really do want this industry to remain healthy and stable, but to do this it needs to find a balance. I think that balance is there now, I fear what might occur over the next few years. Much joy and elation, before unwanted grief again.