Manchester reaches 20M in 12 months

[GOLF-INDIA BRAVO]

Just read on Manchester Airports website that the 20M mark in 12 months has been passed today

Golf India Bravo

[GOLF-INDIA BRAVO]

Just gleaned from the CAA website the Jan Pax figures

1. Heathrow 4,847739 + 3.3%
2. Gatwick 1,850768 + 3.0%
3. Stansted 1,319343 +14.9%
4. Manchester 1,226496 +14.0%
5. Birmingham 533539 +6.0%
6. Edinburgh 508462 + 1.9%

Makes good reading for Stansted, Manchester and Birmingham

Golf India Bravo

[larry walker]

An excellent achievement for Manchester to handle 20m pax in a rolling year. It looks as though MAN will have a very good 2004 with the number of proposed new flights starting.

The January pax figures which show MAN in 5th place could well be replicated in the annual figures either this year, or next year as growth at Stansted outpaces everywhere else in the UK.
Allowance has to be made of course for the split between scheduled and IT pax when comparing MAN and STN. Peak months at MAN will presumably be about 1m higher than in the winter, but STN not having many IT's will have a smaller comparative increase.

Those of us who live in the West Midlands can only dream of BHX ever becoming like MAN. Maybe in 17 years time! (that's how many years ago that MAN reached the passenger figure that BHX currently handles).

Larry Walker

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

There is indeed widespread optimism that MAN and airports with a similar passenger profile will enjoy an excellent 2004. And yes, the impressive number of new scheduled service rotations do make for pleasant reading. However, there is a very dark cloud to be factored into the equation.

According to the travel press (notably 'Travel Weekly' and 'Travel Trade Gazette'), tour operators have been enduring dire forward holiday bookings for Summer 2004. Accordingly, significant capacity has already been removed from the IT market for Summer 2004; MyTravel is reported to have axed 100,000 holidays from Manchester alone with further cutbacks not ruled out. One of the two aforementioned travel journals (sorry, I forget which) last week forecast that one million fewer holidays will be on offer from UK airports this year.

In the case of Manchester, which accounts for approximately 30% of IT sales from the UK, this would represent a loss of some 300,000 holidays (which means 600,000 journeys through the airport) if the cutbacks were distributed proportionately around the country. In other words, the first 600,000 pax provided by scheduled growth are required to counteract the effect of IT contraction. Whilst I have used MAN in this illustration, other airports with significant IT exposure will face a similar problem.

Also, whilst it is always uplifting to read about new Transatlantic scheduled services such as AAL's MAN-BOS (which most influence 'feelgood' forecasts), we must remember that exchange rate movements which attract developments such as this are a double-edged sword. Yes, the £/$ exchange rate is great news for UK-based Transatlantic travellers. But few people are discussing the 10% decline of the £ versus the Euro (don't have that symbol on my keyboard!) which adversely affects sales in a much larger market. London will be more cushioned from this by their greater proportion of inbound travel by non-UK residents; airports such as MAN & BHX have traffic splits which rely far more on resident Brits than incoming foreign travellers. Finally, we must not lose sight of the fact that the price of oil has not fallen significantly since Gulf War 2, confounding many respected economists. This is always an ominous consideration for the long-term prospects of our industry.

So, whilst this posting must surely make me read as the ultimate "wet blanket party-pooper", I should clarify that I am not suggesting that airports with high IT exposure will have a particularly bad year. But I do suspect that rises in pax throughput to the order of 14% (January figures in this thread) will prove unsustainable into Summer months. For Manchester, a Summer rise of 5% should be welcomed as a creditable performance and a modest fall cannot be ruled out. Other airports with a significant IT throughput should also adjust their expectations accordingly.

Well that's my piece said. All angry denunciations of my position will be respectfully considered, so fire away!

SHED.

[GOLF-INDIA BRAVO]

All I can say is it`s a good job it`s only 30% now it used to be over 50% a one time

One thing when a lot of programmes get axed they often combine flights or canx flights from the smaller airports and make people travel to Manchester or Gatwick

Golf India Bravo

[MAN777]

Read in one of the travel supplements this week, that a major cause of the IT Package downturn is the DIY holiday maker using online low cost air travel and direct hotel bookings instead of conventional travel agents, I would tend to agree with this as my whole family tend to do this now, so theres about 60 lost holidays accounted for !!

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

Hi Golf-India Bravo,

I should have expressed myself more clearly. The "30%" I was referring to is MAN's share of the total IT market departing from UK airports. I believe the split between charter and scheduled business at MAN itself was still 48.2% versus 51.8% in the twelve months ending December 2003. I would be looking for a drop to 45/55 over the next few months.

I hope this clears up any confusion.

All the best.