Shannon stop to be watered down?

[akerosid]

According to today's SBP:

The number of compulsory US flights into Shannon Airport will be halved by next summer in a radical change to the US-Ireland bilateral trade pact on the Shannon "stopover", The Sunday Business Post has learned.

The controversial dual gateway, which obliges half of all flights between the Republic and the US to land at Shannon Airport, brings 900,000 American passengers a year into the west of Ireland airport, and €10 million in revenue.

Representatives of the Irish government are to enter into negotiations shortly with Aer Lingus and US authorities to reduce the compulsory flight requirement by 50 per cent in summer 2005.

Aer Lingus and American airlines would no longer have to match each US flight into Dublin with a non-stop flight to Shannon. The obligation to land at Shannon would be reduced to a one-in-two requirement.

According to Aer Lingus, this will allow the carrier to negotiate more landing rights in the US beyond its current five gateways in New York, Chicago, Boston, Los Angeles and Washington.

An EU-US open skies agreement, set to come into effect next year, will ban special trade deals such as the Shannon stopover. It is understood that the Minister for Transport, Seamus Brennan, believes a phased approach would allow the Shannon authorities seek new transatlantic and European markets.

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Hmm . . .

Well, it certainly confirms that nothing will be done for 2004.

How US carriers, particularly CO and DL will react I'm not sure (I'm not counting on US lasting long enough to find out). Is it worth operating just two flights a week to any destination?

It will, hopefully, allow EI to add new routes, but I'm also wondering how the EU will react. If the EU countries which negotiated open skies bilaterals were shot down by the EU court, how will the Commission view this piece of political balancing? Not very well I suspect. It certainly does not seem to gel with its concern for low cost travel within Europe; after all, why are they arguing for unlimited open skies within Europe (for Ryanair at CRL), but arguing for protection of Shannon? This effectively puts EI and Dublin at a disadvantage vis a vis any other European city.

The EU, as you'll see in the article, is still trying for Open Skies and the US has mentioned Shannon as one of the o/s hurdles. We'll see how this one plays out . . .

[Tom the Tenor]

Another likely fudge and yet again another Irish solution to an Irish problem?

[runawayedge]

Defending monpolies that could not survive in an open market. The sooner Shannon is sold the better.

[CCR]

The sooner Open skies comes to Ireland the better....The Shannon stopover damages Cork, damages Dublin, damages tourism growth for Ireland and Aer Lingus growth propects. The compulsory Shannon stopover belongs to the past. Shannon will retain routes to North America after open skies but it needs now to go out and compete for new business such as becoming a cargo hub.

[runawayedge]

Couldn't have put it better myself....CCR

[MarkD]

CCR

damages NOC too. Plenty of American religious types might want a direct flight to Knock...

[the highwayman]

SNN has 2 departures between 4pm and 7am - one EI and one FR to London. Someone should add up the cost of this white elephant and compare it to the supposed cost of dumping the stop-over.

As for arrivals (apart from the odd Russian), a Skynet from AMS and the returning EI and FR that left earlier....the place is empty....just like lots of other airports before FR touched down.

Maybe the Irish government should do what KLM did with Buzz and offer SNN to M O'L & Co for a euro or two.

It's a nice modern building but if it doesn't get some more work soon (and I don't mean another Iraq) it will be a really nice museum.

As for NOC and ORK last Fri a Mytravelite from Birmingham to Knock was diverted to SNN because of fog and on Sun a Futura from Lanzarote to Cork was diverted there because of high winds at ORK - so I suppose it has it's uses.

[akerosid]

"Someone should add up the cost of this white elephant and compare it to the supposed cost of dumping the stop-over."

That's as may be, but the inescapable fact is that SNN serves a catchment area of c.100,000 and its t/a traffic is expected to equal that of a region of 1.5m.

I don't want to see SNN go downhill, but I don't think that expecting Dublin to subsidise it or holding Dublin back actually helps anyone. Dublin has its potential - which has never been allowed to develop - and Shannon has its own; let the two airports develop as they will. I resent this idea that everytime SNN has a setback - RJ, PIA or whoever else abandons their SNN stop, it somehow strengthens the argument in favour of the stopover, as if SNN's problem is somehow a reason for obstructing growth at Dublin.

[runawayedge]

Shannon's 2003 traffic at just over 2m pax was up just 2%. My guess is that US troops accounted for 25%. Kerry, Knock, Cork and even small little Galway has seen massive growth in the last year. What are the marketing people at Shannon doing? The catchment area for Clare and Limerick and for long haul you have to include Kerry, Galway and posssibly Cork is over 1 million. It is a dying white elephant urgently in need of mouth to mouth possibly in the form of strategy from somewhere, government, management anybody...

[the highwayman]

When talking about Shannon it's worth remembering its potential for inward tourism too m- not just it's potential pax in it's catchment area. Shannon is well situated and serviced by roads etc. as a good place for European tourists to start off their trips to Ireland - after all plenty of US tourists have been doing this for years (the fact that their planes have been forced to land there is another issue).

M O'L frequently quotes the potential of cheap flights inwards to Ireland as well as outwards. It's one of his main arguments for a second terminal at Dublin. Places like Stockholm, Milan, Frankfurt, where he has bases already have far larger populations than the mid-west of Ireland - maybe someone should seriously look at getting some of these people into SNN.

Having 2/3 departures each day from after lunch to the following morning is not sustainable.

[WHBM]

I wonder how much Canadian aviation would have been stunted if they had insisted for years that all their transatlantic flights (and latterly 50% of them) stopped at Gander.

[akerosid]

I believe that Canada had a broadly similar situation with regard to Montreal/Toronto as Ireland had, at one stage. That said, Montreal is a large city in its own right.

The craziness of the SNN situation is actually best looked at in the context of Ireland's bilateral with Canada, which actually requires that acft flying from DUB to YYZ, stop at both SNN and YUL. The seasonal AC service operates via SNN in one direction only, as a result of a special agreement between the two govts.

However, you still have the crazy situation whereby an instrument which is supposed to permit routes between two countries actually works as a barrier. Even though there is a seasonal AC service, there surely is room for a pretty considerable increase in traffic between these two countries - a potential which won't be realised until there is a realistic bilateral in place.

[MarkD]

akerosid

the Montreal business was probably a legacy of Mirabel (RIP pax traffic). The YUL stop is not compulsory (AC certainly doesn't in summer, nor does Transat).

End to stopover flags new stable of direct US flights

Sunday February 13th 2005

JANE SUITER

EXCLUSIVE

THE Shannon stopover is to be phased out, allowing Aer Lingus to fly directly to three new US destinations including San Francisco and Philadelphia, the Sunday Independent can reveal.

Irish and US officials are close to a deal on the phasing out of the controversial stopover and an announcement is expected soon.

A spokesman for Aer Lingus said the deal would allow flights from Dublin to Orlando on a scheduled service, San Francisco and a destination in the Washington metropolitan area such as Baltimore or Philadelphia. John Byerly, US deputy assistant secretary for transportation affairs, last week hinted that the stopover would have to go as part of US-EU negotiations to open the skies.

"Fifteen out of 25 EU member states have bilateral open skies agreements with us. Ireland is not one of them. Isn't it strange and, frankly, isn't it sad that open skies with India is today a reality whereas open skies with Ireland is not?"

Irish officials are concerned that if they do not act then the stopover will simply be included in the wider deal leading to a sudden halt of Shannon flights rather than a transition.

It is understood that following an informal meeting both sides have agreed to proceed. However, the details remain to be nailed down but a favoured formula is for a three-year transition period as the Commission may baulk at a longer timeframe.

The agreement could include a gradual transition to one in three and then one in four flights having to stop at Shannon.

Clare TD Tony Killeen admitted the only issue now for the Shannon region is the nature and length of the phasing-in period.

"What we need is a guaranteed level of service rather than a promise that one in three or one in four flights will stop here," he said. "If some airline could fly daily to Shannon there should not be any restrictions on the number of flights or destinations available from Dublin."

However, not all local sources are in agreement. Limerick West Fianna Fail TD Michael Collins said, "I am in favour of it as it is."

Liam Meade, a former Aer Rianta director and ex-GPA executive from Limerick, said the reality is that Shannon's future is as a low-cost base. "The past situation was a distortion of commerce and was simply unsuitable. The stopover was simply a revenue generator built on a false premise."

Some sources have said that Aer Lingus would baulk at open skies because of the extra competition it would entail. However, an Aer Lingus source said last night: "We need access to other US cities, we are going to see more competition anyway.

"At the moment we are precluded from responding given that we are limited to just four US cities as well as a charter to Orlando. US carriers can already fly here from any US city. We welcome this competition and need full open skies as soon as possible."

Last week former CEO Willie Walsh pointed out that the Shannon stopover was directly responsible for the demise of the Baltimore service. He added that he has yet to discuss plans for a low-cost transatlantic carrier with his fellow former directors.

Sources close to Aer Lingus said that the airline would be pleased to fly from Shannon if it were a low-cost airport and if it got its costs down enough to do so. "We cannot operate on a non-profitable basis but if Shannon can become low cost and we can get our business plan through, there is no reason why not."

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1338764&issue_id=12075&printer=1

[CCR]

Does anyone know if the new bilateral before the Open Skies deal will end the ban on scheduled transatlantic flights to Cork, Knock or any Irish airport willing to compete for this business?

[metalboymike]

If the stopover went do you think it would attract more US carriers to Ireland like Northwest and United?

[akerosid]

This is terrific news; I hope a deal can be done to allow new n/s flights by this Summer, so there is plenty of lead in time for airlines (particularly EI) to train new crews and get the new routes set up.

It's been a long time in coming, but hopefully it will be possible to allow new n/s routes from any destination in Ireland to any in the US.

I presume mention of PHL is motivated by the expected collapse of US Airways.

[Tom the Tenor]

Sure, at face value this may look like good news and, maybe, for Dublin Aiport there may be some promise there up ahead.

One in three or one in four will do nothing for Cork Airport. The noose will remain and it will still remain unattractive for any carrier be they EI or American to consider any flights from Cork on a scheduled basis. One in three or one in four reamins a part of the plot to protect Shannon. The civil servants have been got at here by the Shannon Secret Service to strike first with this kind of deal? Dont shoot me now but something in my waters is beginning to tell me the question mark surrounding the airbridges at Cork Airport is playing a part in all of this matter. The longer Cork Airport is left without airbridges the less likely any Irish or American airline will be up to trying direct flights to America? I hope I am wrong. As the kneecapper in chief might say this is indeed Dirty Politics!?

[Global Pilot]

Good News indeed!
I think SNN will do well out there on the open market. With the expansion of the Ryanair base there in May and the rumoured return of Skynet in the coming months, it will be interesting to see the pax figures at the end of this summer.
Passing through Shannon the other day, the shops were full of US service personnel. While 25% of figures may be from the US military I can safely say that many a bottle of Jameson or Bushmills is getting a few soldiers through a tour of duty!

[Tom the Tenor]

I hear Air Canada are not returning to the Irish market this summer. If true, shows that they are not signing up into the snn stopover bluff.

[MarkD]

No Air Canada flights in expedia, seems to be some truth in it!

Pity they don't run a 319 from St. John's NL (YYT) to Shannon as an AA-style stopover getout, then running 767s to DUB.

Unfortunately, AC are squeezing their 767s for all they are worth - long haul pays the bills with three Canadian LCCs snapping at their heels internally.

Air Transat have the rights to DUB scheduled but are understood to not want to take them up until stopover is gone.

[MarkD]

Update: AC have loaded YYZ-DUB-SNN schedule so it looks like I jumped the gun in reacting to TTT's rumour.