Wirraway
28th Jan 2004, 23:34
Thurs "Sydney Morning Herald"
Bird flu could be bad for other flyers
By ELIZABETH KNIGHT
January 29, 2004
The chances of another major international incident capable of sending the airline and tourism industries into commercial shock would have been fairly long.
These industries have been rocked since 2001 by a series of devastating events, beginning with the September 11 terrorist attacks, followed by the Iraq war and SARS.
But the bird flu sweeping across Asia could become the latest market-flattening exogenous event.
At this stage travellers are reacting pretty calmly to the health threat as countries in Asia are busy slaughtering millions of chickens and ducks.
In part the calm is the result of the fact that there is no evidence that the flu can be passed from person to person nor caught by humans from eating poultry.
But the World Health Organisation is now saying it is fairly certain that this will happen.
When SARS was discovered it was also initially ignored by most of the travelling public and underplayed by Asian governments.
In its final stages it had hit panic proportions in most minds - which resulted in a slump in several Asian economies. And the aviation market in the region almost ground to a halt.
It resulted in Qantas reporting its only ever financial loss in international aviation.
In hindsight, while SARS was a tragedy, the international response was far greater than the effects of the disease.
Only in the past couple of weeks has the threat of bird flu really gained any major coverage and, at this stage, while only a few people with direct contact with the birds have contracted it, the media hype will not have a major impact.
But as we saw with SARS it didn't take long before tourists abandoned the Asian markets and many deserted all overseas travel.
Within a few weeks all major organisations halted business travel and some businesses were moving to quarantine staff who had recently travelled in Asia.
Certainly Qantas is playing down the potential effects of a new flu virus, saying there has been no World Health Organisation advice not to travel to Asia.
(But it has ceased serving chicken on its flights.)
More importantly, Qantas says it has not seen any fall-off in bookings to Asia.
But if reports emerge that the bird flu becomes transmissible from human to human, this could change overnight.
A report this week quoted Dr Shigeru Omi, the director of WHO's Western Pacific Office, saying millions of people around the world could die if the H5N1 strain of the bird flu combined with a human flu virus that was moving towards the region.
Right now it's just a nasty threat rather than a reality but one that Treasurer Peter Costello has warned could disrupt the tourism industry just as SARS did.
He said the outbreak would have some effect on the economies of Australia's near neighbours.
This may be a little premature but if he is correct it could once again devastate the earnings of regional airline carriers, including Qantas and Air New Zealand, and have a nasty impact on earnings from airports.
At this stage there has been little or no effect on the stock prices of Qantas or Sydney Airport's major shareholder, Macquarie Airports.
However, analysts are now beginning to monitor the situation closely.
===========================================
Bird flu could be bad for other flyers
By ELIZABETH KNIGHT
January 29, 2004
The chances of another major international incident capable of sending the airline and tourism industries into commercial shock would have been fairly long.
These industries have been rocked since 2001 by a series of devastating events, beginning with the September 11 terrorist attacks, followed by the Iraq war and SARS.
But the bird flu sweeping across Asia could become the latest market-flattening exogenous event.
At this stage travellers are reacting pretty calmly to the health threat as countries in Asia are busy slaughtering millions of chickens and ducks.
In part the calm is the result of the fact that there is no evidence that the flu can be passed from person to person nor caught by humans from eating poultry.
But the World Health Organisation is now saying it is fairly certain that this will happen.
When SARS was discovered it was also initially ignored by most of the travelling public and underplayed by Asian governments.
In its final stages it had hit panic proportions in most minds - which resulted in a slump in several Asian economies. And the aviation market in the region almost ground to a halt.
It resulted in Qantas reporting its only ever financial loss in international aviation.
In hindsight, while SARS was a tragedy, the international response was far greater than the effects of the disease.
Only in the past couple of weeks has the threat of bird flu really gained any major coverage and, at this stage, while only a few people with direct contact with the birds have contracted it, the media hype will not have a major impact.
But as we saw with SARS it didn't take long before tourists abandoned the Asian markets and many deserted all overseas travel.
Within a few weeks all major organisations halted business travel and some businesses were moving to quarantine staff who had recently travelled in Asia.
Certainly Qantas is playing down the potential effects of a new flu virus, saying there has been no World Health Organisation advice not to travel to Asia.
(But it has ceased serving chicken on its flights.)
More importantly, Qantas says it has not seen any fall-off in bookings to Asia.
But if reports emerge that the bird flu becomes transmissible from human to human, this could change overnight.
A report this week quoted Dr Shigeru Omi, the director of WHO's Western Pacific Office, saying millions of people around the world could die if the H5N1 strain of the bird flu combined with a human flu virus that was moving towards the region.
Right now it's just a nasty threat rather than a reality but one that Treasurer Peter Costello has warned could disrupt the tourism industry just as SARS did.
He said the outbreak would have some effect on the economies of Australia's near neighbours.
This may be a little premature but if he is correct it could once again devastate the earnings of regional airline carriers, including Qantas and Air New Zealand, and have a nasty impact on earnings from airports.
At this stage there has been little or no effect on the stock prices of Qantas or Sydney Airport's major shareholder, Macquarie Airports.
However, analysts are now beginning to monitor the situation closely.
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