Wirraway
22nd Jan 2004, 17:12
AAP
Growth in airline traffic predicted
January 22, 2004 - 8:05PM
Airlines across the Asia Pacific region should post double digit traffic growth in 2004 provided the SARS situation does not once again spiral out of control, according to a leading industry group.
And the good times should roll here in Australia, with the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) predicting the number of domestic passengers in Australia will grow by at least ten per cent this year.
At a journalists' briefing in Sydney, CAPA managing director Peter Harbison said consumers should see a continuation of the recent trend of cheap fares, both domestically and on trans-Tasman routes.
This should come to the fore when Qantas Airways Ltd unveils its low cost carrier (LCC), Jetstar, in the second quarter, Mr Harbison said.
He said Australia's "point to point" flight routes meant it was best serviced by LCCs, with Virgin Blue Holdings Ltd having picked up 30 per cent of the domestic market over the past three years.
Qantas and Virgin Blue had last year achieved the biggest ever profit in the domestic market, he said, while at the same time delivering "some pretty good fares".
"Once we see some aggressive competition, that whole fare structure could open up a lot and I think we'll see much more aggressive pricing in the domestic market," Mr Harbison said.
"The Tasman I think ... is going to be a very, very competitive market with some very cheap fares."
Virgin Blue's new international division, Pacific Blue Airlines, will begin low-cost trans-Tasman flights next week from its base in Christchurch, on New Zealand's south island.
Across Asia, Mr Harbison said that while he expected SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) to play a role in 2004, it "could and should" be the best year ever across the Asia Pacific region.
Further liberalisation of the Asian aviation market, particularly in China and India, through new open-skies agreements and regulatory changes would be a major factor, he said.
Strong economic conditions and forecast growth in Asia, particularly in regional powerhouse Japan, would also be an added bonus.
"We start the year with traffic levels close to a year ago - a strong position given the drastic impact of SARS on the region in 2003," Mr Harbison said.
"The signs ahead are positive. Liberalisation of air services is accelerating rapidly and consumer sentiment is positive in most countries.
"Underlying economic conditions across the region are currently favourable in a way which has rarely occurred, with all countries synchronised in favourable growth patterns."
©2003 AAP
==========================================
ABC.net.au
The World Today - Thursday, 22 January , 2004 12:14:49
Reporter: Karen Percy
ELIZABETH JACKSON: Well, from the roads to the skies, and last year was a particularly difficult one for the aviation industry, particularly in Asia because of the SARS outbreak.
But even with those pressures, the airline industry in Australia has been holding up pretty well, according to the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation, a leading research body based in Sydney, which is now predicting good things ahead for 2004.
The centre's Managing Director, Peter Harbison, told Karen Percy there'll be new players and plenty of competition in our skies.
PETER HARBISON: Well, in some ways in 2003 we plumbed the depths and also hit the heights. The remarkable thing was just how bad SARS was, but the recovery from it was just dramatic, and the fact that we start this year at pretty much the same level as we started last year is a real plus in that respect.
KAREN PERCY: Given that we've heard of a couple of cases of SARS in recent weeks, how much fear is there that it might become a major issue again?
PETER HARBISON: There is a significant fear. It’s something we can't avoid. There’s a likelihood that the winter, as we progress further, the northern winter, will start to drive passage of the virus. And this week particularly is one where everyone is holding their breath because the Chinese migration to their home villages and back to work during the New Year celebrations is going to be a major opportunity for spreading disease – if that doesn't occur, I think that's already one very big plus.
KAREN PERCY: Security issues have been front and centre in 2003, 2004 promises much of the same. Do we really need sky marshals for example, are we going a bit overboard here?
PETER HARBISON: This almost comes down to a personal choice sometimes. I don't like the idea of having people on aircraft with guns. I think the thing that concerns me most about sky marshals is there aren't yet any multilaterally agreed principles for their operation. If you don't have that sort of standard in an industry which is so typically inevitably international like aviation there are dangers inherent in that.
KAREN PERCY: Virgin Blue's spin off Pacific Blue starts its flights to and from New Zealand as of next month. What impact is this new carrier have on the region do you think?
PETER HARBISON: The direct impact of Virgin coming onto the Tasman is not going to be major, because it's not putting enough aircraft on it, but just the influence, the image, the whole impression that's created by their coming on, will be substantial. I think what happens after is also be very interesting, where else will Pacific Blue goes. I think they will go to one or two points in the Pacific.
There is some interesting scuttlebutt in south-east Asia too about these low cost airlines getting together, creating new alliances. I think we're going to see some very interesting developments there that will probably involve Virgin Blue.
KAREN PERCY: What about Jet Star? This is Qantas' new venture, which should be up and running by the middle of the year. What are your thoughts on how that will fair?
PETER HARBISON: It probably won't have a major effect for at least two or three months. But what will happen is that once we start seeing Jet Star's prices and routes up on the internet, those prices will start to influence the rest of the developments in the marketplace, and people will start to get a little bit excited about what's going on.
KAREN PERCY: Where do you think the major movement’s going to be in the broader Asian region?
PETER HARBISON: We're going to see some very substantial liberalisation, that is, in terms of things like open skies from China and India, and if you get two major countries like that with combined population of two and a half billion people and economies which are starting to get strong, the impact externally in terms of travel from those markets, inbound to Asia and Australasian destinations, in terms of the whole trade effect, in terms of the effect on the respective airlines is going to be massive.
ELIZABETH JACKSON: That's Peter Harbison of the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation, speaking to our reporter Karen Percy in Sydney.
===========================================
Growth in airline traffic predicted
January 22, 2004 - 8:05PM
Airlines across the Asia Pacific region should post double digit traffic growth in 2004 provided the SARS situation does not once again spiral out of control, according to a leading industry group.
And the good times should roll here in Australia, with the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) predicting the number of domestic passengers in Australia will grow by at least ten per cent this year.
At a journalists' briefing in Sydney, CAPA managing director Peter Harbison said consumers should see a continuation of the recent trend of cheap fares, both domestically and on trans-Tasman routes.
This should come to the fore when Qantas Airways Ltd unveils its low cost carrier (LCC), Jetstar, in the second quarter, Mr Harbison said.
He said Australia's "point to point" flight routes meant it was best serviced by LCCs, with Virgin Blue Holdings Ltd having picked up 30 per cent of the domestic market over the past three years.
Qantas and Virgin Blue had last year achieved the biggest ever profit in the domestic market, he said, while at the same time delivering "some pretty good fares".
"Once we see some aggressive competition, that whole fare structure could open up a lot and I think we'll see much more aggressive pricing in the domestic market," Mr Harbison said.
"The Tasman I think ... is going to be a very, very competitive market with some very cheap fares."
Virgin Blue's new international division, Pacific Blue Airlines, will begin low-cost trans-Tasman flights next week from its base in Christchurch, on New Zealand's south island.
Across Asia, Mr Harbison said that while he expected SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) to play a role in 2004, it "could and should" be the best year ever across the Asia Pacific region.
Further liberalisation of the Asian aviation market, particularly in China and India, through new open-skies agreements and regulatory changes would be a major factor, he said.
Strong economic conditions and forecast growth in Asia, particularly in regional powerhouse Japan, would also be an added bonus.
"We start the year with traffic levels close to a year ago - a strong position given the drastic impact of SARS on the region in 2003," Mr Harbison said.
"The signs ahead are positive. Liberalisation of air services is accelerating rapidly and consumer sentiment is positive in most countries.
"Underlying economic conditions across the region are currently favourable in a way which has rarely occurred, with all countries synchronised in favourable growth patterns."
©2003 AAP
==========================================
ABC.net.au
The World Today - Thursday, 22 January , 2004 12:14:49
Reporter: Karen Percy
ELIZABETH JACKSON: Well, from the roads to the skies, and last year was a particularly difficult one for the aviation industry, particularly in Asia because of the SARS outbreak.
But even with those pressures, the airline industry in Australia has been holding up pretty well, according to the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation, a leading research body based in Sydney, which is now predicting good things ahead for 2004.
The centre's Managing Director, Peter Harbison, told Karen Percy there'll be new players and plenty of competition in our skies.
PETER HARBISON: Well, in some ways in 2003 we plumbed the depths and also hit the heights. The remarkable thing was just how bad SARS was, but the recovery from it was just dramatic, and the fact that we start this year at pretty much the same level as we started last year is a real plus in that respect.
KAREN PERCY: Given that we've heard of a couple of cases of SARS in recent weeks, how much fear is there that it might become a major issue again?
PETER HARBISON: There is a significant fear. It’s something we can't avoid. There’s a likelihood that the winter, as we progress further, the northern winter, will start to drive passage of the virus. And this week particularly is one where everyone is holding their breath because the Chinese migration to their home villages and back to work during the New Year celebrations is going to be a major opportunity for spreading disease – if that doesn't occur, I think that's already one very big plus.
KAREN PERCY: Security issues have been front and centre in 2003, 2004 promises much of the same. Do we really need sky marshals for example, are we going a bit overboard here?
PETER HARBISON: This almost comes down to a personal choice sometimes. I don't like the idea of having people on aircraft with guns. I think the thing that concerns me most about sky marshals is there aren't yet any multilaterally agreed principles for their operation. If you don't have that sort of standard in an industry which is so typically inevitably international like aviation there are dangers inherent in that.
KAREN PERCY: Virgin Blue's spin off Pacific Blue starts its flights to and from New Zealand as of next month. What impact is this new carrier have on the region do you think?
PETER HARBISON: The direct impact of Virgin coming onto the Tasman is not going to be major, because it's not putting enough aircraft on it, but just the influence, the image, the whole impression that's created by their coming on, will be substantial. I think what happens after is also be very interesting, where else will Pacific Blue goes. I think they will go to one or two points in the Pacific.
There is some interesting scuttlebutt in south-east Asia too about these low cost airlines getting together, creating new alliances. I think we're going to see some very interesting developments there that will probably involve Virgin Blue.
KAREN PERCY: What about Jet Star? This is Qantas' new venture, which should be up and running by the middle of the year. What are your thoughts on how that will fair?
PETER HARBISON: It probably won't have a major effect for at least two or three months. But what will happen is that once we start seeing Jet Star's prices and routes up on the internet, those prices will start to influence the rest of the developments in the marketplace, and people will start to get a little bit excited about what's going on.
KAREN PERCY: Where do you think the major movement’s going to be in the broader Asian region?
PETER HARBISON: We're going to see some very substantial liberalisation, that is, in terms of things like open skies from China and India, and if you get two major countries like that with combined population of two and a half billion people and economies which are starting to get strong, the impact externally in terms of travel from those markets, inbound to Asia and Australasian destinations, in terms of the whole trade effect, in terms of the effect on the respective airlines is going to be massive.
ELIZABETH JACKSON: That's Peter Harbison of the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation, speaking to our reporter Karen Percy in Sydney.
===========================================