Pilot shortage may push prices up

[Cypher]

Pilot shortage may push prices up

Nov 16, 2003


The airline industry says a looming pilot shortage may lead to increased costs for consumers.

The government has announced it will cap the number of full-time aviation students it funds at 775 next year.

The Aviation Industry Association says that means there will only be 130 new licensed commercial pilots in 2005, when 230 will be needed.

It says the shortage will only get worse with new airlines starting up in New Zealand.

The association says a flow-on effect will be an increase of costs across the industry which will be passed on to the consumer.

http://onenews.nzoom.com/onenews_detail/0,1227,236234-1-7,00.html (http://)


230 pilots needed!!!?!?!??! Where?!!??! Where?!?!?!?!

:hmm:

When they pass the costs on to the consumers... does that mean everyone gets a payrise?!?!?!? :O

[Wizofoz]

The government has announced it will cap the number of full-time aviation students it funds at 775 next year.

Funny how across the pond (in fact across just about EVERY pond) there is never a shortage of pilots in spite of the government(s) funding exactley 0 trainees.

[topdrop]

If it wasn't the taxpayer, who paid for the training of all those ex military pilots in our airlines?

[100% N1]

"there will only be 130 new licensed commercial pilots in 2005, when 230 will be needed"

Keyword being 'new'. Doesn't mean they won't be able to track down 230 pilots eager to work :p

[Bevan666]

heheheheh.. pilot shortage.. I'd love to see that!

[dwnunderblunderer]

Shortage my arse. How many surplus do we have floating around the traps now? Probably close to 500 maybe more? How can there be a shortage when most peoples first jobs in this country don't even pay enough to live off. When the average wage goes up then there is a shortage. The only reason people are saying there will be a shortage is because of all the fully funded load institutions that will have to shut down because they have raped the tax payer a large part of 6 billion to train so called airline pilots. Most of them don't comeout with enough hours to be of credible empoyment value and can't get another student loan for 40k to build there multi time with.

[Wizofoz]

If it wasn't the taxpayer, who paid for the training of all those ex military pilots in our airlines?

A small minority these days. Most Airline pilots come from civilian sources, without government assistance.

[Luke SkyToddler]

The only impending pilot shortage, is the one that will be affecting the big student-loan gravy-train-riding schools, from fleecing those several hundred star struck punters a year out of millions of taxpayer's dollars with a big fat 0 chance of a job at the end of it.

775 PLACES A YEAR ... CAPPED! :eek: Think about it for a second. Painting with a very broad brush estimate here, I reckon the entire flying industry in NZ is good for about 2,500 to 3,000 commercially employed pilots.

Air NZ (including Freedom), 800ish I believe?
Eagle, 100
Nelson, 150
Mt Cook, 150
Origin, 200
Qantas, no idea but can't be more than 100?
Ag pilots, about 400
Helicopter pilots, about 500

If we allow a couple hundred for the collective smaller and non-scheduled operators, Air Chat's, GBA, Air Freight, Air National, your air ambulances etc ...

And lets be generous and say there's maybe 100 flying instructors in NZ who earn at least a basic living wage, i.e. over $15,000 p.a. (I refuse to count the hordes of C cats working for hourly-rate peanuts or for free because they are part of the problem of pilot oversupply, not part of the solution)

That rough guess gives me 2650 pilots, and I'd put money on 3000 being the absolute most.

So at the rate of 775 new commercial pilots per annum, we would need a total turnover of EVERY pilot now flying in ALL sectors of the kiwi industry every 3 1/2 years.

I prefer to believe the figures I was given by one of the ASL examiners in a conversation we had over my B-cat flight test a few years back, which is that there is about 12 commercially qualified pilots for every flying job in NZ. That was BEFORE the days of the fully funded student loan.

No way Jose. This whole pilot shortage thing is just a load of utter bollocks made up by the flying school sub-committee of the AIA, to ensure their tax payer subsidized pension funds stay intact for a few more years. Shame on them for ripping off hundreds of wannabe's with no prospect of employment, and shame on the minister of education for believing a word of it. :mad:

[prospector]

If the CAA site is up to date, and accurate, there are 913 active ALTPA, and 1250 CPLA licences currently holding class 1 medicals, not counting the "H" licences, cant be 500 helicopter jobs in NZ surely??

Prospector

[Luke SkyToddler]

Hmm, you're right of course prospector, I never thought of looking there :(

However, it only goes to show, that if the government itself says there's only around 2,000 commercial pilots in NZ, it makes the original argument even more ludicrous.

For a sleazy little think tank of flying school owners, to subsequently go and bullsh!t the minister into thinking there'll actually be a pilot shortage unless they go and subsidize 775 new commercial pilots a year, just absolutely causes my jaw to drop at the sheer breathtaking cheek of it all :{

At the end of the day it is an absolute bloody scandal which to my mind equates to a bunch of crooked business people, fraudulently obtaining several million dollars worth of taxpayer's money,and plunging hundreds of innocent people into debt that they probably will never see the benefit of. Someone could surely get the newspapers involved? Paul Holmes is a keen PPL and a bit of a sucker for aviation related news stories, maybe he would be the man.

[prospector]

Must agree with the sentiments expressed appertaining to the student loan scheme for pilot training. When one considers that in the past in NZ, and always in Australia the taxpayers have never been used to fund training of this nature why is it required now?? If even some modicum of the ability to finish the training to an acceptable standard to be in line for any airline vacancies was required before all this money was spent it would be a vast improvement. What I have in mind would be that the theory exams must be passed before any finance was advanced for flight training. And that is all the theory exams up to IF rating and ATPL. If any candidate could not fund themselves up to the flying standard required for a PPL then I would say there was a lack of commitment and no Government money should be forthcoming.

Prospector

[Blue Line]

There will never be a pilot shortage, there may however be a a shortages of pertoleum technicians etc as they find they can finally get a job however :E

[splatgothebugs]

Mr Luke Sky Toddler,

Good to hear your thoughts once again, you must be enjoying it far to much over there ;)

As before when this thread came up the only thing this so called "pilot capping" will do is help the local Mc Donalds get cheaper and even keener "pilots" to work for them.

Perhaps a petition to the government from all Kiwi pilots would be the way to go, otherwise all **** is going to hit the fan very shortly :ok: and the only ones who are going to loose out are the up and coming lot.

splat

[Zeke]

Interesting article in the latest flight safety magazine, Flying against the odds (http://www.casa.gov.au/avreg/fsa/03nov/62.pdf)

There are 14000 people trained as commercial pilots but not employed in the profession. This firgure is likely to be an underestimte

[Jack Sprat]

From one of the recent CAA instructor seminars and from a well known and conected senior character in the ranks came an interesting comment.
Apparently a very senior Air NZ figure was influential in convincing Mahareys blinkered lot / AIA that more pilots needed to be trained in NZ courtesy of the taxpayer. I have always thought that if airlines selected and trained pilots, it would be a far more professional and economic way to operate. Airlines in NZ are leeches in this regard, however they no doubt would say why should we if we can get someone else to pay the cost.
Previous contributors are hard on flying trainers for driving the student cap / loans development. I don't think thats the whole story at all. They are playing the game as best they can according to their own business requirements. Mahareys lot (or whoever it is) may be better advised requiring NZ airlines to conduct 'apprenticeships' as he has very belatedly done for other industries if he is interested in reducing the acknowledged waste of money in many aviation student loans.

[Luke SkyToddler]

Would that 'very senior Air NZ figure', by any chance be the one that owns Ardmore flying school? The one that owns Simuflite? The one that owns Mercer flying school? The one who is best mates with the one who owns Bay Flight? etc etc etc, get my drift? :yuk:

Face it, half of the 'senior pilots' in Air NZ have a nice little sideline owning student-loan-approved flying schools. I would be very surprised if at least one of them was not involved in this hoodwink.

[stick_&_rudder]

Don't believe the hype!

I agree with most of the poster's on this subject,

There will never be a pilot shortage, here in Oz, and by the sounds of it in NZ.

Greedy flying schools continue to lie to potential students about future pilot shortages, and the ease in finding working after completion of CPL training.

The fact of the matter is, these statements have no truth. I would guess that for every 10 students that begin flying training, only 1 or 2 will complete training through to CPL, and out of those only one in 10 will land a job that actually pay's anything at all.

I was an instructor, and was encouraged to feed this B.S to new students, sapping there hard earned dollars from them on false promises.

A real sad state of affairs!

More accurate figures or comments on these CPL students apprieciated.

[Plas Teek]

I agree S & R.
Pilot Shortage - Smortage!

[MAXX]

anyone read the latest stats on pilots and licences(atpl and cpl)

i think the figure quoted was about 32% of proffessional pilots under the age of 55 years old do enough flying to keep their licences current.(latest flight safety for those who think im embelishing)

ill bare my backside in the main street the day in my life time there is a pilot shortage.

[nzer]

The ANZ person referred to is a lawyer in the pocket of the AIA that promulgates this claptrap in the interests of those of its members who run the "College of Knowledge/Zero to hero" rip offs variously xcalled "Academies", etc of Aviation...she has academic buddies at/affiliations with the infamous "Masey" University School of Aviation -- no more need be said !

[dwnunderblunderer]

So true are all these post's. But the problem is all the poor ******s (re- thread on "usefull aviation degrees") that think they are in like flin with a job as soon as they finish there 75k CPL and get given a peice of paper that basically says "here I am a right sucker, after being feed BS by my flying school about being ahead of the others when it comes to a job". It is criminal. I agree with the post about no theroy exams no funds. If you don't show with credits all the way at least to CPL possibly including ATPL then no moolaa. These loans by the way will, on the most part never be paid back.

[josephshankes]

What pilot shortage?

Mate of mine now living in NZ. Under 50, heavy jet command time all the licences etc. Applied to 2 well known agencies looking for work. One in Auckland and one in Christchurch. Never had a reply.

Small country syndrome with their heads up their own ar*** is how he described it.