Dog fight over the Channel Islands

[Yak97]

As I sit here waiting for the first snows of winter I was looking at the UK CAA official record and saw that Flybe have applied for GCI & JER to MAN and JER/GCI.

Strange I thought, that means that they will be taking on BA on the MAN/JER and Aurigny on the GCI/MAN and both Aurigny & Rockhopper on the inter-island.

They are also supposed to be starting up new operations in BHD, they are pushing EXT and are flying all over the place from SOU. If they want to compete directly on MAN they've either got to base an aircraft in MAN (Another base) or put more aircraft into GCI / JER (Have they got any spare, and what about crews?). I know that JEA/BE/Flybe have a bit of a record on starting and then stopping routes (If I remember correctly was it LTN/BFS that lasted all of 2 weeks?) is this another one of them?

Yet I believe that the Walker family want shot of Flybe as it hasn't made a decent profit in ages and was mainly Jack Walkers plaything.

So, how to entice a buyer? Well how about lots of new routes, wizzy new name (with the obligatory .COM attached), publicity on how many passengers their carring (but of course their not really a LOCO) and a good fight or two with the Channel Islands government (we'all for choice...)?

Here's another one, go onto the JER/GCI route, which is always been a political hot potatoe and offer lower fares? Despite the fact that this route is suffering from the competition from the ferries and passenger numbers are not what they used to be??

Anybody got an insight as to what Flybe's up to?

[MaxProp]

YES--probably the commercial wiz kids.

[babydoc]

Sounds plausible YAK97

But who's in the market for this kind of carrier?

No recent record of making profits. At least no audited published figures

Fractured route network - not low cost

Mixed fleet - Small and medium sized planes - some turboprops and some jets - some old and some new.

Lower fleet utilisation: Because of some of the airports it uses - BHD for example

Mixed offering - claims to be low cost/fares but maintains lounges, interlining arrangements, frequent flyer programmes etc

Would another airline be interested? Almost certainly not. ezy bought Go because they got a bunch of planes, pilots, slots and routes that fitted in well with its existing business and it was able to take out a significant competitor.

A venture captial firm? 3i bought Go and made a healthy profit because it was offered at a knockdown price and they sold at the top of the market.

The sector is totally saturated in the UK. The potential for flybe to make significant profits again a la Ryanair and easyJet (tens of millions) are nil.

Still, stranger things have happened.

[Smokie]

I gather that the BHD crews are working their bollox off , in fact a fair few seem to spend a lot of their time at SOU.

Which is strange, coz then crews from the other bases are then called in to Op on the BHD routes.

If only we could see that Big picture eh !!









..You are only coming in on waves............

[OLNEY 1 BRAVO]

The Jersey - Luton service is to cease on 25th October and if it starts again next summer is likely to be Saturday only rather than daily.

[Powerjet1]

A little surprised about the LTN-JER service. I used it three times in the summer, twice in midweek and once on a saturday. Both mid-week were full and the saturday, about 95%. May have something to do with Aurigny starting STN-JER ops from the end of the month. Pity if it is only as a saturday service next summer

[Yak97]

According to the Aurigny.com website Aurigny are starting JER/STN but its seems to be a re-route of their existing service from GCI i.e>

GR620 GCI 0700 JER 0730 STN 0840
GR629 STN 1830 JER 1940 GCI 2010

While it serves (?) the route unless they put the ATR on it its not going to add much capacity if they run in on the existing SF340, and it'll prob p**s off the GCI passengers who've got to go via JER (No love lost there!).

[MEFLYBE]

Not sure if i'm missing something, but being internal to Flybe. i have seen the transformation of the company and it would appear that many people are mis-informed about the activities of the company, and ignorant to the services it offers.

regards

Mike

[Fraudsquads]

Thanks MEFLYBE for the input.

I presume you could inform the forum and educate all as to the services on offer. Otherwise flyBE. isn't gonna get very far.

Thats of course if you want to....

[Yak97]

Would you care to expand on those rather cryptic comments?

[MEFLYBE]

OK well here goes, probably setting myself up to get shot down but i am proud of what my company has achieved in recent times.

The application for the JER/GCI-MAN routes would require another aircraft to be based in either JER or GCI, both of which have space. BA charge very high fares on their MAN-JER route and there is clearly a market, especially in the summer for a more affordable option. The Q400 is ideal for a triangle JER/GCI-MAN route, similar to the JER/GCI-BHX setup.

As to the profits of recent times, i am to understand that the company has actually turned itself around financially, and whether or not the airline is in profit or not, it has reduced losses considerably. I am lead to believe by many internal parties that flybe. IS making money.

The current route network IS changing and core routes such as BHD and BHX are being built upon, in fact BE carries more pax than BA on the BHX-EDI/GLA routes. SOU and EXT will continue to be the core of flybe.'s 'sun flights', and are performing very well. Advance bookings for the new EXT routes are excellent.

Flybe. is NOT a low cost airline. Not yet anyway. Everyone is making hue efforts to cut costs, but at the same time, in order to maintain an edge over other low fares airlines, we must offer that little bit more, especially to the business market, which is why lounges, an FF programme and economy plus products are still around. Our regulars LIKE the extras and are willing to pay for them. Admittedly, flybe's cost base is higher than others such as Easyjet or Ryanair, but we are trying to change that.

The fleet is a changing issue. The Q400s are coming in thick and fast and are proving popular with pax online, reliability is improving and crews are becoming more familiar with the aircraft. To say that Flybe has a fleet with some old and some new, well does'nt FR and U2 aswel? The costly CRJs have gone and the Q classics are on their way out, which will leave us with, by next summer an all 146 and Q400 fleet. The 146 is next for replacement and it is well known within the company what will be the choice, based on SOU performance issues. Until then, all the 146's have clean, leather seated cabins and are liked by many. Besides, they're British built!

In regards to the JER-LTN service, it was never intended to be a year round operation, it WILL return next year, but there is no market for such a route in the winter months.

It just makes me sad when everyone at Flybe. is shot down by negative comments, we have made such an effort this last year especially, and if we had not changed, we would not be around today.

By summer 2005, we will have an efficient 2 type fleet operating on many more routes, profitably.

Now unless i am being fed a big pile of crap by the powers that be, i really don't think we're doing THAT bad. Has anyone ACTUALLY flown with us, OK sometimes we may be delayed and sometimes we may have tech problems, but does'nt everyone? Our crews are great and at the end of the day i would rather fly with an airline which has good people working for them as opposed to an airline that does'nt know how to smile.

Regards

Mike

[Yak97]

Thanks for your post, and the time & effort you have spent putting Flybe's point of view.

[Wycombe]

Yes, I have, SOU-JER and back 2nd week of Sept on the Q400.

Both flights on time, nice clean new aeroplanes (quiet for a turboprop too!), friendly & efficient crew - and it cost us £28 return each + taxes (due to knowing when we were going and booking well in advance admittedly).

When checking in at SOU (early Sat am), the success of the operation there could be judged by the no. of pax queuing up to check in for that mornings "sunshine" departures - the queue was almost out of the Terminal entrance, so clearly JY are packing them in at SOU.

More flights to JER (a route on which BA are giving up) and other new dests to come.

[ALLMCC]

Nice to see a little support for Flybe instead of the usual uninformed criticisms from those that really should know better. I have flown with Flybe/BE/JY on many occasions and have never had reason to complain.

It seems that most gripes about them come from supporters of airports they don't operate in to.

To divert a little I notice that Flybe will now have some competition on BHD-LBA following Jet 2's announcement that they will operate LBA-BFS from next month - hopefully Flybe will rise to the challenge and secure their position on this route.

[MEFLYBE]

In regards to your post Wycombe, you will be pleased that in reaction to BA pulling off the route SOU-JER, flybe. are increasing services to 4 daily this winter with the tea time SOU-JER return operated by 146 a/c.

Timings are as follows

SOU-JER
0820-0905 123456 Q400
1105-1150 12345 7 Q400
1530-1615 12345 7 142
1640-1725 6 Q400
1950-2035 12345 7 Q400
1950-2035 6 DH1

Regards

MIke

[Flight Level Zero]

MEFLYBE

Thank you for that hard felt reply, people are always ready to make comments whether they are informed or not but I find that Flybe do leave themselves open to this.

I would agree that Flybe have made numerous changes this year for the better, even using G-BTUY on the GCI/LGW route removed the overweight issues however, this is forgotten about when you changed your policy to cancel flights after 90 minutes delay. While this may save you money by not requiring extensions in Guernsey it gives the passenger very little choice.

This may be possible when the passenger has an alternative method of travel, but being offered a seat in 48 hours time or the possibility of waiting 10 weeks for a refund is remember and will come back to haunt you in due course.

While you now compete with Aurigny they have not entered your price war and currently provide a better standard of service even if the aircraft are of a lower standard.

£2.50 plus tax to SOU, there can be no reason for this other than to fill seats and obtain market share, yes the passenger will travel but will you see any loyalty from this passenger, I doubt it. Are they not always at the front of the queue demanding this and that when you have a problem or something was not up to standard. Don't forget that once you have market share someone is always sideline willing to come and take it.

You comment about your FF programme, I assume you mean "Passport to Freedom", with you cheap deals who in their right mind would participate in this for the meagre returns.

You comment about reliability but the Q400 which you use on the GCI/JER/BHX route is notorious for running late and is a constant joke on local radio and the reliability of the 300 based in Guernsey has not been something to shout about recently especially when some of these passengers had connecting flights out of SOU.

I hope that Flybe continue to be successful but that they concentrate on their bread and butter routes and provide reliability, service and professionalism before rapid expansion.

[JobsaGoodun]

FLZ,

Flybe have no such policy to cancel flights after 90mins!! Not sure where you obtained that information from. Indeed Flybe have always tried to fly as much of their schedule as possible from the Channel Islands when the weather clamps down. Sadly the same could not be said of British Airways in similar circumstances.

It is unfortunate when flights are cancelled however it is worth noting that due to Flybe carrying significantly more passengers from the Channel Islands now than ever before this has improved load factor resulting in fewer seats being available to scoop up passengers when things do go wrong. This is why an alternative is often going to be a day later.

Your argument concerning fares is a valid point, however this is surely benefical to both company and comsumer alike. Why should Flybe have half empty aircraft flying about when we can offer these seats cheaply to people who may wish to travel. It may not create loyalty however, I'm not too sure that people are that loyal when it comes to airlines now anyway. We live in a new age of a price driven retail market, and it is this area that the travelling public are concerned with most. Reduced prices expand a market, they open it up to those who may not think of flying, this can only be beneficial.

Flybe have indicated that they will remain a part of the Channel Island market and Jim French has recently taken part in a debate at the Labour Party Conference regarding supporting the regions and retaining their air links, however any market must be a fair one to operate in.

Retaining a good, reliable and professional service is as important today as it has always been, however it is the rapid expansion at the likes of Southampton and Exeter that have saved the company. I think you will find any business that has had to implement such a drastic change in the way they operate will suffer some problems initially. I am sure these will ease and Flybe will retain market share in the routes it has built up in the last year.

[ALLMCC]

JobsaGoodun

Well said - a lot of what you say could apply to Belfast City which Flybe have stuck by despite abortive attempts by other parties (so called airlines & airports) to marginalize the routes they operate by way of over capacitating the market. Thankfully Flybe have risen to the challenge & long may it continue.

The airline has gone through a period of great change over the past 12 months and, with the arrival of new aircraft to replace the 146 in the offing, things are looking bright indeed for the future!

[Yak97]

Isn't the introduction of additional rotations on the JER-SOU a pre-emptive strike against Aurigny who also have a license on that route?

I don't think Aurigny have stated a start date for that service? What will they use that will compare with Q400 or 146? Even their new ship the ATR72 dosn't really compare.

Also what ever became of the Bmibaby application to serve MAN-JER, published by the CAA back in June 2003? Did they drop it? Like NOW who had stated they were going to serve JER from LTN in their initial publicity but no mention of it er.. now.

What puts people off serving JER?

[LGS6753]

Mike/Meflybe -

Thanks for your temperate and considered response.
I would however beg to differ on one point: "no market year-round for LTN-JER".

Luton is the best-placed London area airport except LHR, in terms of catchment area and uncongested surface links. If JER needs a London link, it needs Luton flights rather than flights to mid-East Anglia (STN).

No operator has tried to operate year-round JER services from Luton, but an operator who got his marketing right, and put some resources into it could be the number one on LON-JER. If EZY or FR did it for example, it would increase out-of-season tourism, boost the local economy, and be profitable.

Perhaps one of them will try it?

[JobsaGoodun]

Yak97

Put quite simply I would imagine that one defining reason as to why other low cost's do not fly to JER is because of the inclement weather that surrounds the islands at various points during the year. Another reason would be a finite number of possible passengers.

The hard core low cost's (EZY/FR) work very much on maximum aircraft utilisation and as such they could ill afford to have an aircraft sat on the ramp at JER or GCI for the best part of 5/6hrs not earning any money when the fog rolls in.

I may be wrong but when JEA started flying LTNJER and were flying 3 times a day back in about 1999 it was in reaction to Easyjet securing the licence to operate the route, a licence they have held for about 4years but never actioned.

Personally, I am not sure if their are sufficient yields there for them anyway. It is not difficult to pick up a rtn fare in the region of £60-£80 from Flybe or the other carriers operating trunk routes into London.

Oh and the reason for the increase in Flybe services is mainly due to BA exciting the JERSOU route within the next couple of weeks, however throwing some more seats into the market with GR applying for the licence may act as a slight deterrent.:}