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Originally Posted by cavokblues
(Post 11490036)
Interesting dig, thanks for sharing, certainly feels more feasible.
From looking at their accounts they state how they want to win further UK market share and expand into the German market. They also cite how their policy of allowing free cancellation is a risk as they pay for the airline seats up front and may not always recover that money.... One thing I am still confused about - why do they need the Monarch brand? Just start your own airline. 'We Love Holidays Airways' on the side of a fuselage isn't any less cheesy than 'Jet2Holidays' and would certainly help you achieve more brand awareness and market share....not sure people would necessarily join the dots with Monarch being associated with them. |
Even if the owners are credible and there is a genuine gap in the market, where could they actually fly from? Certainly in the London area the only realistic option for sufficient slots and overnight stands would be SEN, is MAN also full? But then SEN has other constraints which aren’t helpful to this type of operation, assuming they’d want longer sectors to Greece, Canaries etc.
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The venture must be from someone with hard data rather than an idea on the back of a fag packet.
ex TUI or Jet2 executives would have that as well as booking engine sites so Love Holidays would add up. Strong up sale trends which Ryanair & Easyjet can't offer might be the driver here. |
From a brief look at their website and a few dummy bookings to holidays in Turkey they seem to even offer flights on Pegasus with a stop and change of aircraft en route. That's far from ideal for the UK package holiday market.
However, Love holidays currently t revenue is £135,000,000. What's the average cost of a UK holiday per household, £2-3k? Say an average family of 4, that's less than 200k pax per year. That's not many bums on seats to operate an airline with so seems they must have exponential growth plans. (Unless I've massively messed up my maths?) |
If it is, as it seems, Love Holidays behind this then my expectation is that this 'could' actually get off the ground
They, together with their competitor On The Beach, are amongst the largest licenced UK operators not to have their own in-house metal and are therefore at the mercy of the yield and capacity of other carriers - i.e. Ryanair, Jet2 and easyJet who in the case of Ryanair particularly, publicly state they do not want the business anyway. Having their own airline in-house would make perfect sense, particularly if not directly aligned to their main tour operator brand, therefore allowing them to sell to other operators and direct to consumer (perhaps the thinking of re-launching as a familiar name) as well as via their own channels. Obviously a lot of practical considerations, particularly around slots (although from someone who has some experience in this area in past roles, you would be amazed at what airports will 'find' for well backed new entrants) but in terms of them being able to put bums on seats, I wouldn't be too concerned about that |
"Having their own airline in-house would make perfect sense, "
history suggests that is not always the case |
Reported elsewhere Love Holidays could be soon be going up on the market:
Loveholidays tipped for up to £1bn valuation with potential salehttps://travelweekly.co.uk/news/tour...potential-sale |
Agreed - Globespan, Unijet and even Cooks (but their issues went far beyond the airline) plus many more I have had the pleasure or displeasure of working with over the years
However the Package IT market has changed significantly since Covid pushing people towards financially protected and one stop shop bookings. They have some pretty robust tech, a very strong product team with direct accommodation contracting throughout Europe, a known brand in the budget bucket and spade end of the market and very clever USP's (particularly around cancellations/amendments). Whilst I am not party to the exact information, I believe from previous conversations they have a Northern/Scottish tilt to their overall demographic too. I am not doubting there are huge risks, but I do know that their ability to achieve their stated growth plans utilising solely third party carriers is going to be difficult |
Isn’t Monarch 2 the airline within an airline that is the Jet2 Airbus fleet?
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Originally Posted by a5in_the_sim
(Post 11490751)
Isn’t Monarch 2 the airline within an airline that is the Jet2 Airbus fleet?
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Originally Posted by cavokblues
(Post 11490570)
From a brief look at their website and a few dummy bookings to holidays in Turkey they seem to even offer flights on Pegasus with a stop and change of aircraft en route. That's far from ideal for the UK package holiday market.
However, Love holidays currently t revenue is £135,000,000. What's the average cost of a UK holiday per household, £2-3k? Say an average family of 4, that's less than 200k pax per year. That's not many bums on seats to operate an airline with so seems they must have exponential growth plans. (Unless I've massively messed up my maths?) |
Originally Posted by chinapattern
(Post 11490103)
Monarch gave up long haul well before they went bump, restarting such routes would be a recipe for disaster.
TCX went bump too and had a significant long haul presence at MAN - do you not see the pattern? |
Originally Posted by laviation
(Post 11490865)
The US routes with TCX performed very well for the most part. Not the wing of TCX that failed
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The Love Holidays theory would tie in with the fact that Monarch Holidays Limited which I assume had to be acquired simultaneously has just applied for dissolution on Companies House but the airline remains "trading".
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If they performed as well as claimed then why did VS drop LAX, SFO and BOS? There is a long history of MAN losing services when 'Opportunity Heathrow' needs a leg-up. Sad but true, and unlikely to change any time soon. However, it is fair to say that pre-covid performance of MAN's transatlantic portfolio was not the determining issue here. Customer demand at the MAN operation was just fine. |
Originally Posted by Flightrider
(Post 11489994)
OK so a bit of digging on the Intellectual Property Office website says that all roads lead back to We Love Holidays Limited, which owns the original Monarch trademarks (for class 39, transportation) and has a pending application registered yesterday for a new category of Monarch trademarks as well. It looks to have some overseas European trading companies and the ultimate controlling party of the company is listed as Livingbridge, which is one of the larger UK venture capital / private equity companies specialising in mid-market companies. With the IPO registration yesterday, it can only be this company behind the new Monarch venture. Presumably it is getting squeezed out on supply of air seats for dynamic packages by easyJet doing its own thing and so if it is to continue making a solid set of profits (last year's £35m profit before tax on a turnover of £135m is pretty decent for the travel sector) then it needs seat supply. They've £50m in the bank (most of which looks to be their own money as opposed to customer deposits) and I'd presume access to more capital through their venture capital shareholder. Looks credible from where I sit.
Although it’s not quite the same as having your own airline - On The Beach did their own charters to Turkey, as there wasn’t enough seats for them to control. It certainly seems like one way where they can control pricing, so they are not priced out. |
Originally Posted by chinapattern
(Post 11490912)
If they performed as well as claimed then why did VS drop LAX, SFO and BOS? If the demand was there and with TCX gone they should have been onto a winner. Yet they have shown zero interest in bringing them back. The markets have undeniably changed in recent years so IMHO the so called gap in the market really isn’t as big as some think it is. Capacity on LAS when that returns will be way down on what it used to be.
Virgin once LAS restarts should actually be around the same capacity they offered pre-Covid. You do ignore the simple facts United had upgauged MAN cumulating in a daily 764 - rumours of ORD at the time too Delta were to introduce daily BOS Virgin had loaded 6x weekly LAS, 11x weekly JFK and some other increases pre-Covid Virgin had planned a network hub for MAN and there was even rumours of a proper BA base. This was all after the Thomas Cook collapse. Aint a MAN problem |
MAN transatlantics were heavily MAN-point of sale, where the markets performing well this year (EDI & LON) are more biased towards inbound traffic.
Just in case you missed it, the exchange rate was up in the 1.40s for the early part of 2018 and tanked towards the end of the year and has since been as low as 1.06. For most of this year, it's holding in the 1.20s. This strongly favours incoming travel to the UK rather than outbound travel - so MAN can be expected to do poorly in relation to EDI and LON on transatlantics. If the exchange rate swings back the other way, MAN will become more attractive and no doubt there will be some capacity shift in its favour. |
again OT, but doubt BA Mainline were ever going near MAN longhaul, rumours or not.
Always swings and roundabouts, the pendulum will swing away from inbound exchange rates, and perhaps sooner than some think… |
Thought this was the Monarch thread ?
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