Flights to/from Ukraine
 

As many will be aware, there are some very serious geopolitical tensions affecting Ukraine right now. See the website of BBC, Sky, CNN or another major news organisation for details
At what stage do commercial airlines (or their insurers) make the decision to stop ordinary passenger flights ? When non-domestic Govts start telling their citizens to leave ? When bullets start flying ? Something else ?

So far I don't think there's any need to be stopping passenger flights in and out of Ukraine and to do so would be knee-jerk and damaging to the Ukranian economy which is no doubt already struggling just like everywhere else in the world.

I don't think we will see bullets fly. War will be avoided at all costs. This one is a case of 'stay calm and wait it out' and hope the diplomats know what they're doing.

Remember too that Ukraine is huge. The troubled border area is a long way East.

Following up on the remarks about serious geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, the first thing to understand is that Ukraine is not really a homogenous country, there are major differences between the western and eastern parts. Next I would ask do we in the west really understand the Russian point of view? One of the most important things in any crisis or conflict is to understand the needs, fears, motives and main strategic interests of the other side. I am certainly not an apologist for Putin, but is the Russian perception that there was a deal not to expand NATO eastwards a myth or is it something convenient for Putin to use it now?

Furthermore, have we miscalculated and not fully understood Russian concerns?. Other than Ukraine being a territory through which much of Europe's natural gas is supplied, is Ukraine really of such great strategic importance to us in the west that we should risk a war? I know there is much talk in the press about not appeasing aggressors but might we not be pushing Putin (for whatever reasons that might exist in his paranoiac mind) just a little too far as this American academic suggests?

Take a look at this video:-

Or maybe read all the other Pprune threads on the subject, and leave this one to the question asked?

At present there are no aircraft showing over any part of Ukraine east of Kiev on FR24. Almost all of the aircraft in Ukraine airspace are flying to/from a Ukrainian destination - the exception being a single FlyDubai 737 in transit over the far west of the country, some 500 km from the nearest point of the Russian border.

SWBKCB, The answer to your question is when the airline concerned receives either a goverment warning, or the country concerned isssues a NOTAM or the airline make its own assesment using many inputs from many organisations that it is no longer safe to operate there. It is a complex problem.

I was rather hoping to (as far as possible) minimise the discussion of politics... and focus entirely on the operational side for airlines - i.e. what would trigger an airline (or its insurer) to start cancelling flights, even if the commercial revenue is acceptable
Lufthansa (plus OS and LX) and also KLM decided yesterday to stop overnighting in Kyiv-Boryspil, and fly only in the day time - i.e. spend no more than maybe 90 mins on the ground in daylight
Yes, I'm aware that airlines in western Europe are going to be more cautious about flying to (for example) Kharkiv close to the Russian border in the east, compared to Lviv close to the Polish border in the west

Would anyone have any opinions as to what airlines who approach Ukraine from the west might choose to do, when the risk is deemed too high, and what would be the trigger points for making those decisions ?

In case anyone is wondering - I'm not a journalist - please have a look at the record of my previous posts as verification that I ask the question in genuine curiosity

Airlines will cease flying there when either they deem it no longer economical to do so (too many people cancelling over the fear of war) or when the foreign office issues a warning to avoid travel to the region.

W6 flights from LTN departed as normal today so they see no issues, suspect loads will be light outbound though.

Skyup Airlines has said it has been told by insurance companies that they will no longer cover flights within Ukrainian airspace.

They also said global leasing companies have told them to return the planes to the EU as soon as possible.

Last night’s flight from Funchal to Kiev diverted to Moldova because of the situation.

I suspect this is Ops normal but lots of Russian airliners straddling the border regions on the Russia side - presumably because Ukraine wouldn’t give them overflight permissions?

Or Russia is keeping civilian aircraft out of the way ...

Or Ukraine is refusing entry to Russian aircraft

Yes, I think we've exhausted all the possibilities ...

As I look now, SkyUp seem to be operating as normal.

Things do seem to be fairly 'normal' at the moment.

Ukrainian airlines, including SkyUp, are still flying in and out of Ukraine. As are most foreign airlines. A Lufthansa plane has just landed in Kiev.

I imagine passenger loads inbound are pretty poor mind.

Ukraine Intl Air (UIA) has been asked by lessors to move 5 aircraft out of the country
https://www.avianews.com/ukraine/202...anes_fly_away/

AUI ferried five B738s and an Embraer 195 to Castellon and two B738s to Belgrade today.
A Bees B738 is being ferried from Kyiv to Monpellier.
A Windrose ATR is on its way from Dnipro to Ostend through Prague.

Vueling have zero'ed out all flights to/from Kyiv for all dates up to and including 28 February. FR24 shows flights were 2x weekly up to and including 13 February