OzzyOzBorn

Yet GLA/EDI gained half-empty running extra LCY frequencies?

If true I can’t see a LGW-MAN service working/happening, the train takes just over three hours from Manchester including a short tube ride and Gatwick train from Victoria, which is more pleasant than travelling through MAN being shouted at in a queue by security staff etc , travelling on a BA lgw based Airbus with probably miserable crew staffing the aircraft.. No thanks I’d rather catch the train and have more space.

Oh my, you make it sound like a breeze. LGW -MAN is about 6 hours versus 50 min flying time and an hour check in.
It sounds more like a Manchester agenda than a factual comparison?

6 hours is a bit much for Gatwick-Manchester. I live in Croydon, 15 mins north of Gatwick by train and travelled by rail this morning to Manchester, with luggage. It took 3h50 by train today, Sunday - ie with trains at least 30 minutes slower than Mon-Sat, from East Croydon station to Manchester Piccadilly. Trains from places like Wilmslow, Macclesfield or Stockport will be 10 or 20 mins faster. A train on Monday from Gatwick to central Manchester should be about 3h30

Anything more than 4h by train from Gatwick train station to central Manchester by rail suggests something going badly wrong. 6h would allow for an additional long lunch in a restaurant en route

Sorry to hear about all the miserable people working in air travel when the train services are filled with such joyous souls! And space on a train - yes, plenty of room for the kids to run around and the nice man opposite to stack his cans of Stella... :eek:

Navpi

Well the timetabled trains take around 3 and half hours so maybe you’ve got a problem understanding the U.K. railway system, I would love the LGW-MAN route to be successful so maybe it will be then, I did use it on many occasions in the late 1990s actually as well as using the train service.

MAN-LGW was a strange route, to do with revenue being "manipulated" I believe and mainline taking all the profit. 2901 was always full at 0620, mostly US connections. It was never a P2P route. Since BA have retrenched to fortress Heathrow there isn't much hope.

Just last week I did Manchester Piccadilly to LGW by train. Departed Piccadilly at 1315 and arrived at LGW at 1645. It would have been quicker had I not walked from Euston to Oxford Circus before then getting the tube to Victoria. Oh, and I bought a few bits of food in M&S in Victoria before boarding the train for the last leg. It can be done in 3 hours.

MAN-LGW is handy for south coast destinations I guess. I enjoy travelling by train and it can be a very pleasant experience. That said, I think some posters description of the flying experience are over-exaggerated with an underlying agenda and I've experienced far more cheerful, happy and polite crew on BA flights than I have on the trains.

I too had wondered whether the service is aimed at connecting into EI. Otherwise, I'm not sure as to its potential.

Yeeeeees, all that luggage to get into central Manchester,Is there a long stay car park there to leave the car? Then on to the train, off again at Euston, nice 'walk' with all the luggage to the tube, on and off the tube up and down escalators with half of London barging you out of the way, luggage back on the LGW express and off again, nice long walk to check in, queue up and finally through security.

Alternatively, check in at MAN, luggage too, security, wander up to the gate, nice flight down to LGW, stroll to the departure lounge, board flight to paradise...etc etc.

I get it. If and its a big if, you are travelling light, point to point, MAN to LGW then maybe the train is a good bet. But with a family going on your jollies with all the parafanalia that goes with it, a direct connecting flight is my preference.

Is it true that Virgin's soon to be started Manchester Islamabad service has been refused by the Pakistani authorities?

I suspect that MAN-LGW might be useful for connections, but I think the main reason might be that it will be easy to cancel if BA don’t get summer 21 slot exemptions. Simply rebook the passengers on MAN-LHR and the job is done.

Went out of Manchester yesterday with Jet 2 from the old Pier C. It was like an obstacle course up and down stairs and none working lifts / travelators, ye gods it was not a good experience as a passenger. Not had those issues with LH or Emirates - just a long walk usually with EK.
It is quiet, why can not things be fixed while they have the opportunity. I know ultimately it will be pulled down, but you can not just abandon maintenance until the replacement arrives !!

All expenditure has been cut back to absolutely essential maintenance only.

We all know that MAN-LGW will be a slot-sitter if it happens. We don't need any in-depth business case studies beyond that. A short route which will come close to covering its costs is ideal for the purpose. And when traffic recovers to the extent that a more lucrative route can take its place, that is exactly what we can expect to see happen. But in the meantime - if MAN-LGW is offered - then I intend to make the most of the opportunity.

[bar none

I read the same elsewhere but this was then followed up saying that it wasn't true and the flights are going ahead as planned.

OzzyOzBorn

That's wholly wrong. The domestics were lucrative and the yields died almost overnight. VLM absolutely did not drop MAN/LPL-LCY for more lucrative European routes, indeed that probably marks the long decline for the airline when that core domestic high frequency market collapsed. I was a local back then.

Skipness 1E has it right. The VLM U.K. domestics died almost overnight with the rail improvements. The subsequent redeployment of capacity onto the likes of EIN and LUX were a reactionary plan that turned into the disaster it was always destined to be.

ICEHOUSES

Haven't done for a while, but I think another option is to walk from Euston down to St Pancras and take the Thameslink service to Gatwick, you can avoid the tube then.

Thankyou for your customary respectful attitude, S1F. Charming as always. Aviation analysts appreciate that a number of factors have to be taken into consideration in matters of route planning. So I'm surprised that you're struggling to comprehend that. My original answer stands. You are free to disagree.

Which bit of Ayrshire is local to LCY? Anyway, I seem to recall you using the word "local" as a put-down in the past.

Can we stop referring to MAN - LGW as MAN - LGW.
it's clear as day its LGW -MAN.

The London part, specifically E14 at the time being discussed, London has been my pprune location for 15 years and LCY was my local airport.
Sorry but you were flat out wrong on your point, the WCML rebuild had a massive effect at the time on the domestic market and your point about VLM seeking exciting new opportunities elsewhere because of slot scarcity doesn't stand up. The WCML impact on MAN-London was profound, indeed there's no point to point justification for MAN-Central London at all now. Only points collectors chasing status go through that level of Hell on BA now.
MAN-LGW survived longer as it was useful for the South Coast and for feeding BA's long haul but the business model changed at LGW and sun routes took the focus. APD made things less attractive in market and that's not gotten any better since the route was dropped. Classic slot sitter alas, unless BA are going to re-set LGW and refocus.

Well it's clearly doomed as it's one way only. :) Doomed I say. Do we think they're going to have a fair crack at helping feed Aer Lingus long haul here? Dare we hope?

BACsuperVC10

But doesn't all that take time and expense as well as the hassle of lugging your suitcase (assuming you can fit it on the West Coast lines train) from Manchester to Gatwick. As an able bodied person having done it it's a real slog. A disabled person I can imagine might find this even more challenging.
A connection between MAN and LGW sounds like a great idea in my opinion.

I would have thought that the walk between Euston and St. Pancras is shorter than many a walk within an airport terminal.

Am I right in thinking that the Thameslink is slower by stopping more often though? A southern from Victoria only takes around 35 mins.

OK, Skip. I'd always presume an aviation analyst to enjoy a good grasp of aviation economics. But perhaps over the years you've become more seduced by cheerleading for Heathrow rather than remaining true to rational evaluation of the wider market? I shall address the points you have made against me in turn:

First up, have WCML rail improvements influenced air travel demand between MAN and the London Airports? Absolutely YES. Now show me where I argued to the contrary. Oh, that's right, I never claimed any such thing, did I?

My postings have made absolutely no mention of VLM at all, still less discussed their strategic preferences at a company level. So I am "flat out wrong" on a point I never raised at all. You are trying to reinvent the narrative.

Another straw man. I've made no argument one way or the other on this topic. Do you ever read what people actually write before mounting that high horse of yours?

Well at least we can agree on something. I outlined exactly this in posts 76 and 95 on this thread. Though I suspect that your true motive is talk down any potential innovation which is not supportive of LHR's best interests.

Now here are the points I actually did make. As opposed to the ones you wish to plant on me with your alternative narrative.

1) At high-demand single-runway airports where peak-time runway slots are fully-subscribed (such as pre-covid LGW and LCY), less profitable services inevitably get squeezed out in favour of more lucrative opportunities over time (and not necessarily by the same carrier - I never suggested that). This is aviation economics 101. I'd be very wary of anybody claiming to be an aviation analyst who fails to comprehend this.

2) The viability of air services is dependent on a whole range of factors. Numerous contributing influences must be taken into consideration when evaluating whether to back or withdraw from an existing scheduled service. Good aviation analysts understand these complexities.

DomyDom

I've not found so, firstly I've got to get to Manchester Airport, I do don't live in Manchester, so that is time and expensive. If I go by train I can get to Runcorn Station in 15 mins, no check in required, no battle to get through security 2hours on the train and I'm in Euston. I have a pull along bag like most people do now, short walk to St Pancras then train to Gatwick, alight there and your right in the terminal. I've done the say for Heathrow too, its easier than flying from Manchester particularly if you don't want terminal 5.

easyflyer83

Its a bit slower, but not too bad

inOban

And St Pancras is a wonderful station

OzzyOzBorn

It's still a slot sitting exercise

Correct. And that is exactly what I explained in my first post on this topic - number 76 on this thread - and in all subsequent references.

easyflyer83

Whilst some of the stopping ones are upwards of an hour, there are a number of trains per hour that are a little over 40 minutes. The walk to St Pancras and getting on a train there, as opposed to the Tube to Victoria, would always be my preferred option, unless it was chucking it down outside.

Virgin
 

Apologies if this has been mentioned and I've missed it, but what aircraft are VS using to MCO for S21? I've heard rumours of 789 and A35K. Also, do we know where the A330s are flying to next summer?

From what I have seen it will be A330s.

Hope that helps.

Bluebird 737 freighter just diverted in, unsure why as nothing else is holding or diverting from EMA

The met. vis was 500m and although the RVR was >1,000m around that time, they were giving 8 okta cloud at 100ft. I imagine this particular flight was only Cat 1, unless excessive holding was a problem which seems unlikely.

Sioltach Dubh Glas

I would imagine a lot hinges on the success of the vaccine. If it is successful I could see demand picking right back up and them potentially needing the capacity of the A350’s or a double daily A330 (maybe one 200 and one 300) maybe not every day of the week but certainly on a few especially in peak summer. If the vaccine isn’t as successful then I would imagine an A330. It must be difficult to schedule at the minute with the success of the vaccine in the UK and the USA needing to be considered before anything is decided.

I could see it being a really last minute decision with constant changes being made throughout the summer where it may just be pot luck what you end up on with VS, especially on the leisure routes.

I think people possibly are getting ahead of themselves. It is going to take the best part of a year to get substantial vaccine effect. Things are not going to return to “normal” by S21. For instance in Hong Kong they do not expect to roll out vaccines until 2022.

The Florida market will be slow to recover IMO. The US has banned cruises exceeding seven days in duration for Summer 2021, and it is likely that a very reduced number of those will operate. Theme parks are in full social distancing mode which severely limits capacity. And, of course, the USA is struggling with Covid again heading into it's Winter peak, though Florida's southerly latitude may help to keep numbers lower there than in the snowy northern states. Add to all this a contentious political transition too. 2021 long-haul will be a tough market generally. I'd expect budget leisure short-haul to come back much more strongly at first, provided that national entry restrictions, quarantines and kneejerk rule changes are not part of the picture. 'Keep it simple' will be the key to trouble-free leisure travel in 2021.

HKGBOY

Not sure that's quite right, certainly as far as Europe, Caribbean islands and many Far Eastern countries/Aus/NZ are concerned. If we assume that the UK/ Europe are vaccinated by the summer and countries and airlines operate a vaccine certificate system I can see things getting significantly better in summer 21. Most of the Caribbean and Australia and New Zealand have a much smaller problem anyway. Yes, the US because of it's size and the way the pandemic has been mismanaged will probably take longer but Biden has made it clear CV19 is a top priority so I think they will not be too far behind.

Again, I appreciate the optimism Dommy. However, simply to manufacture significant vaccine doses and inject twice is no mean feat in high numbers.
HKG is looking at 2022 - so I would not be expecting Cathay back anytime soon in 2021 if this is true: https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...FS9XADYUTfSapg

I do agree with Ozzy though, shorthaul will make some kind of recovery reasonably quickly, but UK-US will not be so easy, for the reasons Ozzy outlined. We don't know what restrictions will be in place and it will require cross border co-operation, which so far hasn't really materialised. This country still hasn't got to grips with any significant airport testing let alone organising some kind of certificate vaccine passport system. I would just err on some kind of caution on the optimism, the fact that Virgin & Aer Lingus have lots of US slots doesn't mean to say they will actually materialise.
I want to get back to HKG ASAP but not being a resident it's not possible. In fact even now they are talking of restricting quotas for returning students who are resident due to a lack of hotels in HKG that have signed up to the quarantine regime. In HKG 14 days stricht confinement is mandatory if you are negative tested at the airport. If you are positive you are shipped off to a remote government facility.