We will certainly need to see more business acumen at running regional airlines than they demonstrated whilst running the airline for the final 13 months or so of its previous existence. Fundamentally, people are just speculating as to where the money is to be made which will make the company so valuable at a stock market floatation. No one else seems to make any real money flying regionally in the UK. I remember a quote from Saad Hamad saying following the last floatation in 2010 they didn't make another profit again until 2016!

It's good to see some things don't change including Jamie's optimism as the chief cheerleader (and pot stirrer) for Flybe's reincarnation on here!

Unless there is a very radical change in the market between now and that time then the prospect of Flybe being floated is fanciful. From those fairly close to this, a trade sale in a very short space of time (less than two years) sounds to be the agenda. That requires a fleet ramp-up to be able to fly slots and therefore hold them in the absence of a continued Covid-19 slot usage waiver. That isn't my assumption by the way - that's the considered view of some involved in this project since Flybe failed.

Am also hearing rumours that a Manchester base / operation is off the cards as the airport won't play ball?

Flybe v1 had an awful history for those who bought shares on almost any date after the flotation in 2010. Declining share price, bailouts, desperate sale for peanuts, and eventual bankruptcy

There would need to be a very compelling story as to why anyone (retail or institution) would want to buy shares in a new IPO. A flotation after less than 2 years doesn't seem long enough to show good prospects, especially when aviation has such a poor history for investors. All seems a bit snake oil to me

Website
 

Flybe.com has just been updated. Very interesting is the part of the privacy policy that says "Some of the flights and services that we offer are provided by third parties". Code-sharing agreements already on the table?

Albert Hall

May I ask where you have heard this? As per ACL's allocation report, Flybe do hold MAN slots.

Many more parts to an operation than just holding slots. Many airlines are assigned slots and never use them. Norwegian had slots at LHR last year or the year before but never used them and gave them back.

I’d imagine the privacy policy with most eventualities in mind so it doesn’t need to be adjusted every time.

Presumably this return to the mainstream doesn't stretch to paying outstanding debts?

There are no o/s debts! This is a new business, wake up and join the real world of business / capitalism.

It's not right, but how the world works.

Well aware of that - I was referring to the cheeky :mad: and their 'short break'.

It certainly doesn’t extend to the shortfalls in the BRAL pension suffered by many despite Cyrus taking their payouts from the Flybe administrators as secured creditors. It may be legal but it certainly is not moral.

Albert Hall


I’ll cheerlead anything that gets the former Flybe crews back in the air. Roll on next year.

ATNotts

Same branding. Same aircraft. Same routes. Same staff. Same callsign! In their own words, "following a short break, returning".
But yeah, not liable for any of the mess they left as that was er.....flybe.
Jamie2009 Did you work for these guys before? Surely you're also out of pocket?

It's abhorrent, but why should the new Flybe be lambasted for simply employing the legal framework as countless others across all business sectors have done and continue to.

Why should they be given an easy ride when they've left plenty of people out of pocket and are now pretending nothing happened?

Carrying the brand over but probably done enough legally to prevent any TUPE claims from re-hired staff.

However, and I appreciate this is a weak defence, they are potentially providing employment in a sector particularly hard hit over the last 18 months.

Hopefully the majority of the roles will be in Birmingham too ;-)

I don’t think you can even say that with any certainty. If - as one poster frequently suggests - Flybe is going back to its old routes to try to position itself on them, the airlines now flying those routes won’t stand idly by. A short war will ensue, lots of money will be lost and then jobs will be lost at the end of it on one side or the other. Any employment increase will be transient.

Yep, exactly this.
Jamie, you need to take your head out of the clouds and realise exactly what your cheerleading here. If this outfit gets off the ground and does what it says it’s going to do, then there will be considerable impact on the other UK Regional carriers who are desperately trying to eek out a living in the UK market.

What’s your role/ relationship with the new Flybe can I ask?

Those carriers which have stepped in on UK business trunk routes at once daily frequency or less will need to make a choice. Twice daily morning and evening Mon - Fri (allowing for a full business day) is an opportunity for FlyBe 2.0 if the new incumbent(s) don't close that door. Fares are not the only consideration.

I think that applies to only a small number of markets - some of the Belfast flying with BA/EI, MAN-SOU with Eastern, MAN-EXT with Blue Islands and that's really about it. There is a much-changed market for domestic travel patterns and I do have to wonder whether these guys know just how much the landscape has changed during the time they've been out of it.

I'm one of the lucky ones that has a contract to start with the new business and is still owed cash from the old company which I'll never see - I'm fortuntley owed far less than others.
I will not apologise for supporting, championing or cheerleading anyone who is prepared to start a new business that will see the former Flybe crews find themselves back in the clouds, engineering or HQ roles after being made redundant through no fault of their own. It was awful watching the death of old Flybe on twitter that fateful night with seizure notices being attached to aircraft and awaiting the dreaded "you're redundant" email - worrying how to support our families. I recall that night and I tell you what whoever the crew were who took off from EDI or GLA (I can't recall) to LHR last thing nightstopping and knowing it was over should be the first to get their jobs back - they and others had to rely on the charity of hotels and airlines to get back home. The Clayton Hotel at MAN gave my mate his cancelled room for free that night as he was operating away from base and stuck.

Flybe's woes were terrible business decisions that were compounded on and couldn't be easilly shaken off, definitely not the fault of the majority of front line employees or the management at the end (in my view). If Covid hadn't of happened old Flybe would probably still be going but the owners would have needed to pump in far more cash than they envisioned and with mass redundancies.

The market will find its equilibrium. Business is very very cruel but its show business not show friends and some very well run airlines may need to reassess.
Immoral and outrageous some scream... Are BA apologising for taking the covid opportunity to shaft its CC on legacy contracts? Are the airlines who were outraged at the the mere suggestion of Flybe receiving a bailout in 2020 and then taking loans / furlough themselves sorry? What about Loganair trying to stick their ore in at the CAAs meeting regarding old Flybe's OL and RLs? Do you seriously thing Easy will continue domestic flying, supporting the UKs regional connectivity, when they can make more cash from more profitable routes - should we not be outraged that they took advantage of the situation rather than established regional carriers stepping in? What about Eastern basically making their crews fly for next to nothing to keep their business going and keep their jobs? Can’t really feel sorry for the heavily subsidised Channel Islands outfits either.

Theres been loads of negative nonsense spouted on this board from slot grabs, its all a deceitful con which no lease companies will touch from "well placed" unknown sources which have proved to be wrong again and again....It's happening, accept it. This repeating merry-go-round of moral outrage is not going to alter anything - the real question is how airlines deal with the new Flybe.

I can assure you that those joining the new business are not on the contracts they had at the old company - they (we) are also subject to the market adjustment.

This thread should be renamed FBE realisations (old Flybe) and a new one started as the past is done - its the future regional landscape that should be the subject of our discussions.

The slot discussion thing was definitely not nonsense. You should read the CAA reports when the OL was revoked. They fought damn hard to keep those slots and have them transferred to the new airline. They weren't successful. But let us not pretend they didn't want them - for what exact reason we will never know now.

I wish the new Flybe well. They're legally entitled to start and fight for their place in the market and the other airlines will have to adjust to compete. I'm just incredibly sceptical as to how successful it will be. People are allowed to speculate on a forum about that and I wouldn't say it's necessarily 'negative nonsense' anymore than I would want to describe posts on the other foot as 'happy clapping.'

There's a problem with the these twice-daily business flights. What do you do with the plane and crew in the middle of the day?

If it's any indication of this day trip business market, I notice that BACF, having had, since September, two 'early bird' flights from EDI to City (only one on Friday ) have in the past week had just one, and none on Friday. Perhaps after a brief flurry of in person meetings, the urge has gone.

Of course they wanted the slots but it wasn’t the be all and end all it was made out to be.

anyway time will tell🤷‍♂️

flybe went bust pre-COVID, it's rewriting history to suggest otherwise.

I believe there were 114 cases and a single death in the UK when it went bust. It was in such a bad state of affairs it couldn’t even manage those numbers due to the huge drop off in bookings.

This has gone round in circles about 10 times on this thread and it’s history. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds for all parties involved.

It’s very difficult to judge the decisions made in the last throws of the ‘original’ flybe, given the ridiculous number missteps they had taken in the previous 20 years. High debt is a killer for any travel business, and with a clean slate it will be interesting to see whether the model actually works.

It went bust pre-lockdown (UK). It was certainly not pre-COVID. By that stage there had already been a catastrophic collapse in bookings with the more fundamental issue of their backers going into their own survival mode. Not to say Flybe would have survived either way, but not for you to re-write history either.

They finally went under March 2020 but IIRC they would have gone bust in January 2020 had the government not agreed a bailout. And they probably would have gone bust again in Jan 2019 had Virgin / Connect not stepped in.

They really weren't a viable going concern way before Covid came onto the scene.

In its last 15 years Flybe made a loss more than a profit. On the years that it did make a profit they were small and more than wiped out by the next losses.

Loganair appears to be the only regional carrier which has made money - I assume helped by it’s location and higher number of PSO routes and contracts. Otherwise regional aviation in the UK is not a place to make money. Flybe, Stobart, BMI regional, Air Southwest all gone.

Aurigny is forever loss making. Eastern hasn’t turned a profit for a while. I think Blue Islands is loss making too. So the question is what will Flybe 2 do differently? It isn’t going to make a profit just because it doesn’t have the old leases - don’t forget in the meantime other prices are going up.

And code sharing isn’t going to be a lifesaver. BMI codeshared with half of Heathrow and still died.

You can add Air Wales, Air UK, Brymon, Manx, British regional Airlines, BA Connect, Gill Airways, and Eurodirect to that list. (British Airways Express too)

Indeed it’s a much longer list even still but I thought I’d stay recent. Perhaps it’s easier to just note the carriers able to survive and why.

Just for the record, CityFlyer Express, which was branded British Airways Express, was profitable every year of its existence apart from year one. In fact some years it was extremely profitable. It had a very different business model from Flybe and it also had very competent management.

Jamie, thank you for at least being transparent about your interest.

Even so, I think you are hugely misguided on the prospect of the airline wars that you seem to relish in the postings on here. Wars are very expensive things to fight, as both Flybe and Loganair learned a few years ago.

easyJet had already announced it was going on GLA and EDI-BHX before Flybe 1 collapsed. They presumably did so in the knowledge that they'd be competing with Flybe on those routes, so I cannot see why they would now back away. They were the #1 and #2 routes in Flybe's network. And Flybe 1 was all but bankrupt in January 2020 when it called on the Government for a bail-out but managed to stagger on until March. Covid-19 didn't kill Flybe.

And as for the slots, Cavokblues has it right. They were so essential to Flybe 2 that they fought a CAA legal battle to try to get them. The slots are obviously of great significance to them and none of the speculation has been wildly misplaced. Only time will tell if it actually is!

I cannot see this story having a happy ending

Jamie2009

I too used to work for Flybe, so if you’re a pilot I will know you. However, whilst I admire your positivity and wish you well, I have to admit knowing what I do about what’s been going on behind the scenes for the last 18 months, I hope you’ve got a Plan B, because I wouldn’t trust Cyrus as far as I could throw them.

Good luck.

See my post dated the 20/10/2020

However at these times I still think working with Logan Air to supply the UK with essential Regional Connectivity would be better than going after them and better in the eyes of the Politicians/Media.

I may predict a few battles but I don’t relish it

Logical debate here in relation to the viability of Flybe.

​​​​​​A lot can be learned from the US market and the evolution of the airline industry since it's deregulation in about 1978. Things have followed a very similar pattern in Europe. This is characterised by a large decline in the number of airlines, the rise of low cost carriers, ultra low cost carriers and a consolidation of power among a few large carriers. This is exactly happened in Europe. The distinction is the regional airline business.

The regional carriers in the main fly got the network carriers, feeding passengers to the big 3 carrier's hub airports, franchise and ACMI is where it is at. Any regional airline who is to be sustainable needs a niche that is not easily penetratable by a low cost carrier, is supported by government grants or is a unique specialisation.

The gap in the market is ACMI flying under the guise of any major carrier who needs connectivity and frequency. Even serving thinner markets and allowing the legacy carriers to deploy large aircraft where they need them. Cityjet up to the pandemic had made significant progress.

An airline like Flybe needs scale to manage down is unit costs, but it also needs a sustainable competitive advantage and I'm afraid so far this hasn't become apparent to me.
​​​​

willy wombat
I was flying a Jetstream 31 in 1992 in BA Landor livery with "British Airways Express" painted on the side, nothing to do with CityFlyer, the original AOC for whom was held by Air Europe Express aka Connectair.

British Airways Express never made any money.

Not exactly correct. Connectair was sold to ILG (in 1988) and was rebranded Air Europe Express. However during that ownership period in, I think, 1990, Connectair was merged into Air Europe and there was no longer a separate Connectair AOC. In 1991 CityFlyer Express was started from scratch (originally under the name Euroworld). As I said earlier, CirtFlyer Express was profitable every year except year one. All ancient history now.

"British Airways Express" was the banner under which Loganair, Manx Airlines (Europe), Brymon and Maersk (UK) all flew using their own AOCs. They all made money off and on over the years but it became tougher as easyJet got bigger and you no longer had to pay hundreds of pounds to fly in a propellor driven aircraft! There's a lesson somewhere in there.
I would say the key point is that easyJet and Ryanair etc disrupted the markets the old BA Express operators used to serve. There are still some niche routes that can make money but my goodness the market is fragmented and economies of scale are hard as flybe proved with their base closures.