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-   -   Flybe-V1 (https://www.pprune.org/airlines-airports-routes/637085-flybe-v1.html)

ATNotts 18th Apr 2021 18:34

For sure most countries haven't missed any airline since for the most part flying has been off the menu! Agree I wouldn't put any of my hard earned money into an airline, they aren't generally safe bets in normal times!

Alteagod 18th Apr 2021 18:51

Did Richard Branson or maybe it was Freddie Laker who said the definition of a Millionaire was a Billionaire who got involved in running an airline!

Wycombe 18th Apr 2021 21:28

I believe Branson's actual words were that the "only way to make a small fortune in aviation was to start with a large one!"


Asturias56 19th Apr 2021 17:36

So why do so many people get drawn in? It makes no sense.....................

davidjohnson6 19th Apr 2021 17:39

For the same reason that very few kids aspire to be an auditor of accounts when they grow up...

bean 19th Apr 2021 18:18

If people did'nt get drawn in, the Flybe bashers would have nothing to drone on about and their lives would suddenly seem very boring

GROUNDHOG 19th Apr 2021 20:18

Wycombe

I believe that quote was around before RB was born.
The same as the story about the person that asked Branson/Laker/Sugar/whoever to say come over and say hello whilst having a meeting with an important client. "Hello Richard/Freddie/Alan , not now I am busy"
Back to Flybe now!

airspeed75 19th Apr 2021 22:41

airsouthwest

Well so long as restrictions continue it'll be zoom et al going forwards unfortunately. There's Sturgeon up north just come out the other day and said "travel restrictions will be with us for some time to come" and hasn't indicated a roadmap away from this whatsoever. All the while Europe is in the grips of a third wave and the media plies the public with constant barrage of "variants".

Whatever they do it'll have to be something vastly different as how many people used to use FlyBe in order to connect to other international flights and the likes.

To those saying that the pandemic is irrelevant because "things will get better" I agree in the long term but they're on about a "summer restart".

Maybe it'll just be this one Dash located down in EXT doing the odd flight here and there whilst they flog the slots off out the back door?

ATNotts 20th Apr 2021 08:08

If you thought beyond your own agenda for a moment you'd realise that operating an airline with one aircraft on a route to anywhere that makes no profit just for the sake of selling slots isn't a business model. Thank the Lord I don't work for an organisation with someone of your mindset at the helm.

Albert Hall 20th Apr 2021 08:21

And operating an airline with lots of aircraft on routes to everywhere that make no profit as they're in competition with half a dozen other airlines doesn't look like much of a business model either, though.

Let's see what happens from here. I think anyone would be hard pushed to dispute that the slots are seen as being of very significant value after everything they said in the CAA hearing. You surely wouldn't be going after LHR slots to make money flying them after the disasters that were Little Red and Flybe's LHR adventures...would you?

ATNotts 20th Apr 2021 08:31

No, competing with the big boys at LHR is / was a daft idea. Flybe could and should have focused on routes with less, or no competition from airports well away from LHR. I suspect that is what they will do, and IF there is the opportunity to raise capital selling slots, given the depressed state of the industry presently, they'd be foolish not to flog them. However that doesn't make running an airline just for the objective of selling slots a business plan.

Flybe aren't going to be an airline with 10s of aircraft operating from hands full of bases any time soon, but that isn't to say they won't find a profitable niche and grow organically.

Jamie2009 20th Apr 2021 09:08

Flybe are in a good position because the longer this saga continues the competition are losing cash and Flybe not spending theirs.

Flybe can also respond to demand (whatever that may look like) as there is no shortage of Dash crews or aircraft ready to be reactivated.

Asturias56 20th Apr 2021 09:08

The problem with organic growth from non-major airports is that it works for a while - then someone bigger (bigger planes, bigger work force, bigger loses) decides they can, for very little extra cash, get into this nice new market

Then it murders the original airline and the big boy never makes any money and pulls out as well - rinse & repeat

southside bobby 20th Apr 2021 09:18

On the mention of "business plans" perhaps another rereading/resume of Venture Capitalist "business plans" may be in order too.

Not so sure "growing organically" is a chapter or even a paragraph in those plans.

ATNotts 20th Apr 2021 09:25

You're not wrong as regards "Vulture" capitalists. Thankfully the one involved here isn't the legendary Greybull, and hopefully they may give the airline a decent amount of time to prove there is a viable business to be grown.

BA318 20th Apr 2021 09:30

This talk of Flybe finding niches is my point from earlier. What are those niches? An earlier article said 42 of Flybe’s 46 routes are now served by other airlines. The European market is likely to be limited this year. Where does Flybe go?

second, while they are not burning cash as much perhaps as other airlines they will also have other costs - start up fees, leasing fees (they have had this plane for a while now so would obviously be paying something), staffing costs not to mention the advertising and brand awareness costs to repair the image if they use the Flybe name.

Despite what some think I am not against them and would like to see them succeed but I think it will be very tough and to be honest I doubt it will happen and we risk more people getting burned in the process.

airspeed75 20th Apr 2021 11:50

ATNotts

No agenda here, it's neither here nor there to me if they are a success or not!

I think what we have here is a group of folk scratching their heads wondering why anyone would inject their hard earned cash into an airline in a pandemic in which travel has been decimated - and on the other side a group of people who are emotionally attached to a failed airline and any word against it rising from the ashes is seen as a personal attack.

Downwind_Left 20th Apr 2021 12:22

BA318

Not to wade into speculation on where Flybe 2.0 might fly, but Flybe 1.0 served in excess of 50 destinations including seasonal ones at the time of closure, actual routes must have run into the hundreds, as many destinations served by multiple departure points. So the article that 42 out of 46 routes have been taken over is wildly inaccurate unless referring to a specific airport.

cavokblues 20th Apr 2021 12:35

It's 42 out of 46 domestic routes that have been snapped up.

Albert Hall 20th Apr 2021 12:41

The report was here. It was talking about the number of domestic routes Flybe flew at the time of its closure - so doesn't cover international which must have been at least the same number again if not more. I think this also doesn't take in the number of routes that Flybe had already dropped before it failed - there was quite a big cull in autumn 2019.


davidjohnson6 20th Apr 2021 12:41

Interesting article on possible Flybe routes
https://simpleflying.com/flybe-2-routes/

JobsaGoodun 20th Apr 2021 13:46

airspeed75

Playing devils advocate, in a capitalist economy there will always be those that see a depressed market as creating significant opportunity - think of Ryanair placing a large order for new 737's immediately following 9/11.

The market will rebound from this pandemic and I expect that a number of major aviation cost centres are depressed at the moment (e.g.) lease rates, employment costs, airport costs. With this in mind, it's understandable that there are potential new airlines looking to commence operation.

toledoashley 20th Apr 2021 15:38

Is there value in an airline a bit like Volotea - a regional carrier connecting secondary cities with relatively low frequency in which might be too thin for a LCC (or not possible in somewhere like SOU?) - mainly based around Northern Europe?

Jamie2009 20th Apr 2021 21:23

I don’t think Cyrus are going to be happy and settle for a couple of planes on not taken up routes....

If it’s not a slot grab and none of us know the truth.... then there’s some serious competition coming.


EI-BUD 21st Apr 2021 00:35

Where do Virgin fit into any of this?
Is there going to be a strategy around feeding Virgin flights? Is the new Flybe going to be a vehicle in the interim to utilise slots at LGW or LHR once the 80/20 rule returns? Commentary has suggested that travel will not return to 2019 levels until 2024 or something like this. The likes of VS or even BA may like to see a small commuter aircraft fly in and out of LHR rather than either A. Lose a shed load of money on a wide body flight or B. Forfeit the slot.

Equally VS May not want to see its slots at LGW passed to Wizz, Flybe could utilise this strategy to give them time to build their future business model...

We are already seeing numerous routes on small aircraft going into LHR, some cases props, IOM, MME and potential others to follow, where are the slots coming from for these?

In any case, if they attempt to come in with a big bang and return to its old volume routes, they'll bleed cash as other airlines are in already, eg BHD- MAN, BHD-BHX, etc

allan1987 21st Apr 2021 00:52

I'm sure its a codeshare with Virgin with big part of this for feeding flights in to MAN, LHR and LGW Airports for Virgin.

Flybe will use Virgin Slots at LGW so will not be lost. Though I'm sure Flybe will also apply for more when market picks up.
Did say on first administrators report about main Bases in Man and London Airport more this likely to be LGW and few slots at LHR, Also on the first report said about 21 Q400 planes.

Skipness One Foxtrot 21st Apr 2021 01:43

Flybe won't be feeding anyone at LGW using the Q400 unless the charging structure changes back. It was the move to favour A320 size at the expense of turboprops that caused flybe to close LGW in the first place, abandoning long built up routes to INV/BHD etc. Only NQY survived on the back of a taxpayer bung, LGW will not work for flybe unless LGW give them a very good deal, which of course they might, depends on how desperate things are.
Besides I don't see Virgin back at LGW for a few years at least.

Unless Virgin have the money to subsidise flybe2 to make losses at LGW for the sake of slot sitting for five based aircraft for a few years.

Flightrider 21st Apr 2021 07:15

Virgin is not involved in this Flybe restart in any way. It is completely removed from it through choice and concentrating entirely on its own business. No reason to rule out some kind of interline or codeshare far down the line, but the type of activity suggested in recent posts is just not happening.

SWBKCB 21st Apr 2021 08:38

Thanks for confirming, I was thinking the same - so is Flybe2 now just a Cryus venture with no Virgin and Stobart involvement?

Flightrider 21st Apr 2021 08:41

Correct. The only continuing Virgin and Stobart interest is in any secured creditor distribution from the entity now called FBE Realisations.

Rivet Joint 21st Apr 2021 10:37

20 A220s recently ordered by an undisclosed customer. Interesting.

davidjohnson6 21st Apr 2021 10:41

It's a popular aircraft. Do you have anything to link an order to new Flybe (as opposed to any other airline) or are you just speculating ?

Rivet Joint 21st Apr 2021 10:56

Just speculating. Although perhaps a change of business plan would make sense. It seems logical to suggest that BE should go back to being a smaller operation based around Q400s serving trunk routes at a few key bases like BHX, SOU etc. However, if business pax is going to dwindle as a result of zoom meetings and the heat is turned up on domestic flying by the green mentalists like in France, is that an attractive market? Perhaps serving secondary routes that are currently unserved like the new low cost airline in America called Breeze is a market that has growth and little competition? BE now has a clean slate so could be in a position to order or lease new aircraft?

toledoashley 21st Apr 2021 12:14

That's exactly where I see a gap. A little like how Volotea started in Italy/France - secondary cities (Venice, Bordeaux etc), to other secondary cities with lower frequency - or Breeze/Connect in the US. There has been a lot of talk about flyBe being a domestic carrier, but really there were regional - so France, Germany, Netherlands and the nearer parts of Scandinavia. Could be an interesting model in that.

Whispering Giant 21st Apr 2021 12:33

CH Aviation news are reporting that the new owners of Flybe have been granted a operating license by the CAA.

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/n...ew-flybe-owner

sorry it’s behind a pay wall, so can’t access the full article.

fjencl 21st Apr 2021 12:48

“We believe they are close to agreeing a slot release agreement.”
 
Future of Flybe's Heathrow landing slots still up in the air - Business Live (business-live.co.uk)


cavokblues 21st Apr 2021 12:49

Interesting to discover if this is the outcome of their appeal or a fresh new OL.

Flybe 2.0 argued previously at the decision to revoke the old Flybe's OL they should be allowed to have a new OL and the old one simultaneously whilst they transferred allocated slots to the new airline.

jethro15 21st Apr 2021 14:13


CH Aviation news are reporting that the new owners of Flybe have been granted a operating license by the CAA.
See page 2 - http://publicapps.caa.co.uk/docs/33/2433.pdf

cavokblues 21st Apr 2021 14:38

fjencl

I think that article made me more confused than anything, seems to jump around a bit with the timeline. (Maybe it's just me and my brain turning to mush during furlough....!)

My understanding was the EU had awarded the old Flybe (now FBE Realisations) the grandfathering rights on the slots. This has been challenged by IAG.

The CAA had also revoked the old airline's OL, which Thyme OpCo wanted transferred to their new airline. Thyme Opco (Now Flybe Ltd) have appealed that decision. The old airline's OL remains valid until the appeal has been heard and the decision overturned or ratified.


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