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-   -   What chance is there of a new UK start up airline? (https://www.pprune.org/airlines-airports-routes/632451-what-chance-there-new-uk-start-up-airline.html)

AirportsEd 13th May 2020 19:01

What chance is there of a new UK start up airline?
 
What do you think the chances are of us seeing a new UK start-up airline in a couple of months time?
One that has no debt hanging around its neck, can access a glut of available aircraft while lease prices are down to about 60% of what they were just two months ago and fuel is at a rock-bottom price.
And lots of experienced staff from all 'trades' available too...?
Is there a hope?
Ed

spacedog 13th May 2020 19:42


Originally Posted by AirportsEd (Post 10781675)
What do you think the chances are of us seeing a new UK start-up airline in a couple of months time?
One that has no debt hanging around its neck, can access a glut of available aircraft while lease prices are down to about 60% of what they were just two months ago and fuel is at a rock-bottom price.
And lots of experienced staff from all 'trades' available too...?
Is there a hope?
Ed

In a word NO.

Not unless you wish to loose all your money.

pug 13th May 2020 20:00


Originally Posted by spacedog (Post 10781709)
In a word NO.

Not unless you wish to loose all your money.

Maybe not in a couple of months, but I suspect there might be someone out there watching how this unfolds and what the incumbents are doing. The longer this goes on, the more likely there will be a gap to fill when a solution to all this is eventually found - the current airlines will have a lot of lost ground to make up so it could provide rich pickings for anyone with the knowledge and funding.

Dannyboy39 13th May 2020 20:14

What basis are you judging lease prices being 60% down?

The Foss 13th May 2020 20:44

Ready and waiting with zero hours contracts and other forms of social dumping

alm1 13th May 2020 21:05


Originally Posted by Dannyboy39 (Post 10781725)
What basis are you judging lease prices being 60% down?

They are down up to 100% - Norwegian gets to keep their aircraft for free because there is nowhere better for lessors to place them.

jamestkirk 13th May 2020 21:06

Ed
 
My prediction is that the large airline (EZY, RYR) survivors of this will maximise on any perceived profitable routes.

The smaller regionals (Eastern, Logan etc) will corner the UK'ish market and I believe when the dust has settled, collaborate to make any new competition difficult.

IMO it will put a potential airline investor off. For example the administrators were trying to sell flybe as a going concern. Hands up here who would buy that at the moment or the foreseeable future.

TelsBoy 13th May 2020 21:35

What chance is there of a new UK start-up airline? About as much chance as Jeremy Corbyn being Prime Minister.

Fully agree with jamestkirk 's prediction.

LGS6753 13th May 2020 21:52

Any new start-up, even with cheap fuel, cheap aircraft, plentiful slots and "flexible" crew will face two big hurdles - marketing recognition and the competition from very affluent, powerful and experienced competitors wanting to keep them out.

PilotLZ 13th May 2020 21:56

I think that there will indeed be such startups coming up as early as next year, making use of the abundance of available aircraft and qualified personnel. But most probably not in the UK. My bet is Eastern Europe due to the lower taxes, lower labour costs, less strong competition and somewhat less uncertainty in the political and regulatory future coming with Brexit. Most probably, those will be ACMI companies providing cheap capacity to scheduled carriers in Europe and beyond. Making use of such a company during periods of high workload or while your aircraft are in maintenance is often a lot cheaper than expanding your own fleet and hiring extra personnel and it will make sense to larger airlines who won't be willing to take the risk of expansion/restoration to pre-crisis fleet sizes just yet.

AirportsEd 13th May 2020 22:00

Hi DB39,
The 60% figure that I used was that mentioned by OAG earlier today, but as you can see, alm1 explains that, for some, it's even cheaper than that right now. Of course, everyone needs that kind of help right now...
Before I posted I had thought about the existing airlines 'hoovering up the pieces' but wondered if they would have the confidence / cash to be anything other than completely risk averse in the short term.
I wondered if that might provide an opening for a, by comparison, currently cash rich organisation - and that might mean one that is not currently in the airline business - seeing an opportunity, if only in the domestic market to begin with. Time will tell I guess.
Ed

pug 13th May 2020 22:10


Originally Posted by LGS6753 (Post 10781780)
Any new start-up, even with cheap fuel, cheap aircraft, plentiful slots and "flexible" crew will face two big hurdles - marketing recognition and the competition from very affluent, powerful and experienced competitors wanting to keep them out.

Fair point, but hypothetically if this goes on for a year or so, these airlines will only have so much in reserve before they have to make significant operational cutbacks just to stay in business, more so than already announced. Hence my view that it would potentially clean the slate and make it more attractive for a newcomer.

Obviously I hope it doesn’t come to that, but there isn’t a clear end in sight for aviation at the moment, and it doesn’t hurt to try to find some optimism despite this bad situation.

Superpilot 14th May 2020 00:13

Trivia time...Name me the last wholly British owned and based airline that launched?

davidjohnson6 14th May 2020 00:23

Jota Aviation incorporated at Companies House on 24-Nov-2009 ?

flyerguy 14th May 2020 00:27

The only ‘airline’ that could maybe come out of this would be on the Isle of Man. As the LPL/MAN loganair routes are only temporary and the island is keen to get flights back up and running to BHX when this is all over.


The idea of an airline based on the island came around about a week after BEs demise.

SWBKCB 14th May 2020 05:39


Originally Posted by flyerguy (Post 10781865)
The only ‘airline’ that could maybe come out of this would be on the Isle of Man. As the LPL/MAN loganair routes are only temporary and the island is keen to get flights back up and running to BHX when this is all over.


The idea of an airline based on the island came around about a week after BEs demise.

Would 'open skies' need to be changed for this to work?

JSCL 14th May 2020 07:51


Originally Posted by SWBKCB (Post 10781979)
Would 'open skies' need to be changed for this to work?

Longer term, maybe. But I don't really think it makes a difference.

I think it is highly likely we might see a new operator be born on the Isle of Man.

SWBKCB 14th May 2020 08:02

Without some licencing protection or PSO support, would they not run the risk of having their successful routes cherry-picked by larger operators with economy of scale?

GROUNDHOG 14th May 2020 08:13

Pretty slim but how about the possibility of the Government nationalising one or more bankrupt carriers to create a new state airline?

JSCL 14th May 2020 08:26


Originally Posted by SWBKCB (Post 10782066)
Without some licencing protection or PSO support, would they not run the risk of having their successful routes cherry-picked by larger operators with economy of scale?

There is nobody to pick that up, especially not on slim routes like Birmingham that BE previously only operated once per day. It's possible in the longer term like I said, but that would be the only benefits of openskies. OS could also hinder a new operator.


Originally Posted by GROUNDHOG (Post 10782082)
Pretty slim but how about the possibility of the Government nationalising one or more bankrupt carriers to create a new state airline?

I doubt that'll happen. Much better to start with a clean sheet.


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